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The Real Impact of Google+

Maybe Google+ will be competitive and maybe it won't, but it's likely to introduce video calling and OTT communications as a replacement for standard telephony. There will be major consequences to this, and we don't have an FCC or political framework capable of coping.
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Written by Tom Nolle
7/15/2011 14 comments
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  Telecom services   Access technologies
  Google   Mobile/wireless
  Social Networking   Video
 
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Tom Nolle
Thinkernetter
Monday July 18, 2011 11:18:33 AM
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Me too, Mary!  That's why I think it's so critical for us all to understand the reality of the complex economic ecosystem we call "the Internet".  We get online access because of a complicated food chain of providers.  For what we've come to know and depend on to continue to work, we have to be aware of the health of this whole chain of players, and we also have to acknowledge that what we want (which is always as much as we can get for the smallest possible payment) isn't always going to happen.  We know we can't buy a top-end BMW for what we pay for a low-end compact car, and we have to understand that if we want more from the Internet we'll eventually have to pay more to get it.  The trick is making sure that what we pay goes to support what we want!

Tom

Mary Jander
Thinkernetter
Monday July 18, 2011 11:03:46 AM
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More power to the pajama crowd! And I'm not saying I go to work in my PJs, just that I would like to have the same options as those who do.

Tom Nolle
Thinkernetter
Sunday July 17, 2011 2:21:51 PM
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You raise one of the key points about the Internet, Bolingbroke.  In most telco services, all of the operators involved in creating a call or connection share in revenues paid.  With the Internet, this process (called "settlement") doesn't really happen.  Thus, while the consumer may in fact be getting billed by a video service for the video and then again by the operator for the usage to deliver it, the parties are all keeping everything they get, so unless each bills something that party gets no share.  There have been proposals for settlement in various forms, but the OTT giants lobby strongly against paying for delivery, and if they don't pay and additional delivery capacity demands additional revenues, the user is the fall guy of last resort.  The current FCC position appears to be against allowing settlement, but neither that position nor their whole neutrality order is on firm legal ground at this point.

Tom

Tom Nolle
Thinkernetter
Sunday July 17, 2011 2:18:19 PM
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The problem the ISPs have is that additional traffic demands additional capacity, ranging from faster access network all the way through the point where operators connect to the CDNs that serve most of the video (Level 3 for Netflix, for example).  Wall Street analysts have already noted that wireline capex is declining because of low ROI, and we could expect that to continue.  The return on investment for an ISP is MUCH lower than that of a Google, for example.

Tom

Bolingbroke
IQ Crew
Sunday July 17, 2011 2:12:30 PM
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Tom, your mention of usage based pricing brings to mind the sceptre of double billing and hordes of unhappy consumers.  With the popularity of movie streaming and their related costs coupled with the possibility of usage pricing primarily just for the extra bandwidth required for the next eagerly awaited Jennifer Anniston opus. Well, let me stop right there the potential backlash is not pleasant.

pcharles
IQ Crew
Sunday July 17, 2011 1:09:16 PM
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What I wonder whenever this topic is brought up is:

What is that real hit that the ISPs take when users' usage skyrockets? Do they lose money? Or is this just another way to bring in extra $$?

Tom Nolle
Thinkernetter
Sunday July 17, 2011 9:31:33 AM
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There are many issues with Internet service policy versus pricing policy, most of which came out of the original business model of the Internet in the early '90s.  We didn't envision broadband, or OTT video, or CDNs or many of the current elements of the Internet, and the settlement and pricing processes just never caught up with reality!

Tom

Chris Poley
Thinkernetter
Sunday July 17, 2011 9:25:50 AM
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I have been advocating the showdown between Internet users and their respective ISP's for year concerning tiered bandwidth pricing based on usage. This is just another step closer to that reality.

Tom Nolle
Thinkernetter
Friday July 15, 2011 6:30:08 PM
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The mass market's requirements are created by the masses, Mary.  I'm in the wrong demographic myself!

Tom

Mary Jander
Thinkernetter
Friday July 15, 2011 5:58:48 PM
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Hmm... more reasons for me to hate video chat. I'm hoping that more folk like me will "just say no." I can't imagine a world where I wouldn't have the choice to opt out of social network-based calls.

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Second Shooter
5
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5
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Second Shooter
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