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The Coming Internet Bubble: Part 1

The sky is falling! And in other news, Saunders explains why he’s predicting a second Internet bubble – this one based around the current craze for social media.
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Written by Stephen Saunders
10/14/2009 17 comments
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Insultant
Thinkernetter
Thursday October 15, 2009 1:50:32 PM
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well, Paul, if you read the whole article, you'll see thta he agrees with me more than he does with you

"What you want is to increase the actual value of the company, not its market cap."

Exactly. I couldn't have said it better myself. Well, I could. And I have. Repeatedly.

Paul Whyte
Researcher
Thursday October 15, 2009 12:40:06 PM

So what then do you make up of this article?

 

WHAT THE BUBBLE GOT RIGHT

 

 

 

Insultant
Thinkernetter
Thursday October 15, 2009 11:50:47 AM

that and the paucity of "dumb money" following the recessionary conditions, yes

greenbone
IQ Crew
Thursday October 15, 2009 11:41:51 AM

...yes, we're on the same page. I'm just suggesting that there is some amount of "lesson learned" in this 2nd iteration of the bubble-pop you're predicting - which has tempered the spike and given it a bit more strength. 

Insultant
Thinkernetter
Thursday October 15, 2009 11:13:21 AM

Come now Paul, we've been over this a few times, yes?

No revenue model, yes?

Arrogant founders, yes?

Same sympotms as the first bubble, yes?

What's left to debate?

SS  

 

Paul Whyte
Researcher
Thursday October 15, 2009 10:48:38 AM

I read one of your comment in which you talked about stupid VCs insulating Twitter. Can you please help me with what makes a VC stupid? What is it that you know about Twitter that these so branded VCs don't get??

Insultant
Thinkernetter
Wednesday October 14, 2009 9:56:09 PM

greenbone,

i think we are agreeing with each other, right?

I would replace the words "product or service" with "content" in my line of business... but it all comes down to the same thing ... mechanisms don't make money: people and products make money

BTW, "monetize" is the word yee are looking for!

  

Insultant
Thinkernetter
Wednesday October 14, 2009 9:49:09 PM

 

I'm sorry, but i just do not understand how McGraw-Hill could continue to employ 400 people on a publication losing almost a million dollars a week. The model was obviously broken years ago - why do nothing about it?

Back in the day (and I'm talking 20 years ago) BW was the place where journalists went to work if they 1. had attended an Ivy League school and 2. didn't really feel like writing more than one article a month.

I was looking at the number of published articles by full time BW staff (a handy featue of the BW.com Web site) and it seems that at least half of that statement still holds true.

Absolutely incredible.

Has McGraw-Hill lost the plot? Seems like if you take BW and add in S&P's role in the last recession (rating debt, my arse) then something is seriously wrong with that company.

Sultant

 

 

 

sfwriter
Rank: Cyborg
Wednesday October 14, 2009 2:59:26 PM

Yes, BW did have its challenges over the last few years, the chief issue was how to position a print weekly news magazine in an era of instant digital news. One response was a move toward narrative journalism on the print side and it will be interesting to see if the new owners continue in that direction. 

Mary, it appears that the online portion of BW was an attractive asset to the new owners. A blog post by paidcontent estimated that the combined sites of BW.com and Bloomberg.com will have 20 million unique visitors and combined revenues of $60 million.

greenbone
IQ Crew
Wednesday October 14, 2009 2:12:07 PM

I agree there's another bubble inflating with social networking - but I think some lessons recently learned during the first internet boom and bust are making this one a little harder to pop.

There are some very good / valid / practical / monitizable (is that a word?) aspects to social networking - but many people and companies are blindly jumping into it without seeing it for what it is....a way to accelerate reach and reduce the time and "distance" between people.

Companies that look to social networking as a magic bullet for sales and marketing are missing the point.  There are little or no barriers to doing it. If everyone is doing it / can do it, then there is little advantage. ...it becomes the norm, the baseline, not a boost above the crowd.

There is no substitute for having a polished product or service.  Using social networking to engage customers, then refine the product or service, is a no-brainer. Many people and companies clamoring to go "social" are doing it for the sake of doing it.

...the first internet boom similarly had everyone and their cat thinking that a website was the magic key to riches.  ....then they figured out that a website isn't a whole lot different than a listing in the yellow pages....but -woooo! GLOBAL! (yipeee!) 

Kids, the "Yellow Pages" are an antiquated version of a website, but printed on paper, with an alphabetical and topical list of businesses.  Similarly, the "White Pages" are the analog of social networking.

...at some point, the social networking sites will run out of excitement / frenzy money.  Social Networking fatigue and malaise will set in, people (people that pay bills for massive server arrays, bandwidth, data centers, utility bills, etc.) will ask if they can afford to keep doing it without charging people something.

...and then, pop!

 

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The Coming Internet Bubble: Part 1

Part 1 of 2   |  
See complete series
10|14|09   |   1:54   |   16 comments


The sky is falling! And in other news, Saunders explains why he’s predicting a second Internet bubble – this one based around the current craze for social media.
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