You're right, Drew, that we are only at the very earliest beginnings of even imagining what we can do with augmented reality technologies. Fashion's a business -- a big one at that -- but, in the scheme of things, it's certainly one of the least important areas that this technology will surely impact! Healthcare, education, improved quality of life for the elderly and disabled, manufacturing, defense... the list of vertical and horizontal applications are amazing. Then consider the new, as-yet-unimagined tools, devices, and solutions that will be invented by third parties and that world of new opportunities explodes. Exciting times, indeed!

Augmented reality (AR) is coming, not for flash or fashion (sorry Google Glass), but because of the overload of big data bombarding the human mind, in work and in our lives.

We are about to reach a tipping point in the evolution of information technology, sparked by the intersection of big data and the natural capacity of the human mind and body to think, and accomplish our life's tasks.

Since 1995, data is being produced, processed, and aggregated at such volumes that we are now reaching diminishing returns in our worker's ability to actually do something with it.  The average company doubles its data every year but us humans have not doubled our cognitive and critical thinking capacities at the same rate, nor have we learned to type, text, write, or tweet exponential paces either.   The data wave is above our head and we can barely breathe.

We are admittedly faster with technology than we were ten years ago, but not fast enough to maintain the current paradigm of a device-centric world where the human factors have been left behind.  In general are still having to work for technology, to adapt to it, reach for it, rather than have the technology work for us.

The principal reason we are lagging in data actionability is because the bulk of data is entered, generated, processed, and displayed on the machines' terms, not ours'.  Look at us.   We reach for technology, we divert for it; we even put ourselves in harm's way for it.  We have had to walk, work, and drive in dangerous "heads down" ways, looking for that email, that direction, that map and link.  The data we need to be productive is being delivered & captured in technology's terms not humans'. The machines – and the big data they move - are stunting us because we have not figured out how to make the machines work for us, adapt to us, in hands free and more natural ways.

So we are at that tipping point in 2013.  Big data - through its sheer volume - will actually be the trigger that drives a massive adoption to Augmented Reality, where the display of data and the capture of content are delivered in more natural and hands free methods.  This human liberation will happen not because of any fashion trend nor consumer whim.  The shift will happen because American productivity in the workforce will require it.

In fact, the next wave of American productivity requires a world of more wearable technology, data by human design, which means a smarter way to present data and content onto our physical world, in full context of where we are and what we are doing.  In that world of wearable technology, context is king, which then finally arms the American worker with the right information, in the right amount, at the right time - all without having to physically deviate so much to get it.

Acknowledging companies like APX-Labs in Herndon, VA, the "business of hands-free" is moving right along to bring smart glasses applications to the people that need them most:  the information employees of 2013 who actually do things with their hands (nurses, doctors, soldiers, manufacturers, and even journalists).

Looking ahead, the companies that quickly bring smart glasses into the hands-free functions of their more mobile employees will make the vital data flows of their employees more actionable, more efficient, and by default, more human.  And who wouldn't want to experience that?  Time to put the Big Mind on the same cycle as Big Data, but on the minds' terms.

In 2009 I attended an event with the World Economic Forum on the future of the Internet, both from an economic and technical perspective.  Over the last 12 months two trends are becoming even more apparent: (1) the Internet will require more innovative forms of risk hedging beyond just security, and new concepts like “CloudInsure” will emerge for businesses depending irreversibly on digital technologies.  And (2), the cost and complexity of Internet technology will be massively transformed downward by this little known technology advancement called API’s (application programming interfaces).  Here are my observations about the trends of the API market, which is becoming a fascinating commercial environment to truly support "data as a service" on a grand scale.

Available as accessible fountains of data and web services from companies like Google, Skype, ESPN, Facebook,  & Foursquare, public API’s are fueling a new world of digital possibilities and innovation, especially to a broader population of Internet participants who access the Internet on millions of worldwide mobile “apps.”   Today these apps solve mostly small problems but as the market of available API’s expands, larger world problems will be solved and more complex data relationships established.  Apps will become the dominant mode of relating disparate data, perhaps between companies who have never formally met one another.  API’s the global glue enabling the means to do it.  

The Internet is transforming (once again), this time onto mobile devices powered by data innovation and emerging API’s.  As other businesses continue to bring new API’s onto the market – especially globally - then the potential for digital innovation the next ten years is quite astonishing.  Because of the unprecedented interoperability and ease of API’s, a digital Neverneverland may be on the near horizon for the millions of developers, consumers, and innovators of the global Internet, all of whom will want to grow old with the Internet without every having to really grow up.  Data can a valuable currency asset, but relating data requires an inquisitive mind, a youthful energy, and a spirit of wanting to make something better.  Tapping into a broader (younger?) talent pool with wider access to data is not a bad destination given the potential to solve the world's problems through relating more of the world's data.

Over the next few years people will have apps in their hand, their kitchen, their car, and their computers, all powered by a global market of billions of data and service API’s – provided by emerging technology and media giants to traditional brands that offer data “hook ups.”    The opportunity for businesses will be digital survival and relevance, and the opportunity for the consumer will be a mobile, digital Internet that can expand as quickly and broadly as the human imagination.  Through API’s the traditional technical barriers to digital innovation are lowered by quantum leaps, leaving the human imagination to “create an app” to solve problems, both large and small.

Thanks to my friend John Musser of Programmableweb, the data now shows we have surpassed 4,000 public API's into the market, representing a 400% growth rate in the last 18 months alone.  It took a previous 8 years to even get to 1,000.

While 4,000 API types might not seem like much, the average call volume of those API’s averages over a billion data exchanges per month for each company in the top twenty of API volumes.  Notably, it is estimated by our research that not even 1% of the global open API market has been realized given the newness of this type of technology overlay on traditional IT infrastructures.   CIO’s should take notice.  There are two major trends driving the demand for more open IT assets: the consumer’s rapid move to mobile and social platforms, and the emerging financial market opportunity of data as a service.  In other words, every business of size must now strive to be a platform for data and web services – even traditional businesses that consume and aggregate unique data sets in support of traditional models and products.  Not everyone has to be an Amazon, though they would benefit just by thinking like one:  like a platform.  API’s are the critical component to achieving such a model.

Over the last few weeks I have attended a series of API conferences called the Business of API’s, sponsored by Mashery - first in San Francisco, then New York City, and this week in London.   The companies presenting ranged from upstart API billionaires like Klout, LinkedIn, Netflix and Twitter, to established consumer brands like ESPN, YellowPages, USAToday, AP, and ASOS.  What did their perspectives all have in common?  Their businesses aspire to leverage this little known and emerging technology innovation called API’s to grow, extend, and in some cases, transform their businesses in order to survive the global market for API’s. 

Winning with API’s and transforming IT to a platform translates to competing in the global market for mobile consumers.   And as the new data aggregators have shown us since 2008, API’s also translate to millions of eyeballs on social, mobile, appliance, and any other app that comes along.  In the words of one Business of API presenter, “we are future-proofing our business with a data access model that allows us to diversify and grow in a digital future that is often hard to predict.”   Like few previous fads of the Internet’s evolution, API’s are here to stay, with Gartner predicting this year that over 75% of the Fortune 1000 will have open API’s by 2014.

What does this mean for businesses thinking about social, mobile, and cloud computing?  It means that the digital business of the next ten years is the business of API’s, and this trend will cut across every economic sector that relies upon “data in” and “data out” at massive scale.   What does this emerging API trend mean for the consumer?  It means that the next innovations of mobile apps and web mashups are just getting started.  More importantly perhaps, easier access to the world’s data means that the youthful aspirations to make the Internet better are firmly within our reach.  Welcome to a digital Neverneverland and the expanding market of API's.   We can still prosper - grow old perhaps - without having to fully grow up.

By Drew Bartkiewicz, October 24, 2011