A predictive model has an error margin that should be taken into account when predicting the outcome of a given event based on that model. Even a state-of-the art analytics package cannot predict with 100 percent accurary the outcome of an test instance whose parameters (features) may vary depending on the test environment.
To me there's a big difference between the Super Bowl and the playoffs, and the Presidential election: the first is determined by the participants, and the second by the audience, which is polled. It's not like the views of the audience have any determination on the final result; it's totally about the performance of the two teams involved.
So there's a lot of factors involved -- weather, injuries, who's playing, etc. For that reason, while it's mildly interesting to me that Nate failed to correctly calculate the victors of the playoffs, doing so correctly doesn't impress me nearly as much as his performance during the election season.
My gambler boyfriend observes that if Nate could indeed correctly calculate the winners of the games, he'd end up making a lot more money placing bets on them than he could make at the New York Times, which caused me to wonder (intellectually) what effect deliberately throwing the predictions could have on the odds of the games -- though it is of course illegal to bet on football games outside of Las Vegas and no doubt his New York Times contract forbids it anyway.
"He wants to shout at them to check if all the predictions they have made in the past came to be. "
So is it only on this basis that Mr. Taleb will believe in predictions? Well that scenario is the lofty ambition of analytics. That's were we are heading wioth this exciting but intriguing world of Analytics. Are we ever going to reach that lofty goal of been able to see all our predictions come true? I am afraid notbecause Analytics does not purport to be an exact science. However, it does gives us plenty of resources to make predictions look like a scientific process. It can only gets better with time.
"We should neither predict nor believe in predictions."
How can you say we should neither predict nor believe in predictions? Prediction itself is as old as the human race. On an individual level, everyoneone at some point in time wantred to know the future. It's just a part of human nature. We've seen astrology becoming in creasingly popular as more and more people become super curious to know the future.
From a business perspective, we are hearing a lot about forcast. I don't think there is a single business that does not do with forcasts. Over the years, forcasting has been predominatly a guessing game. However, with the advent of analytics, we are now seeing attempts to minimize the guessing aspect of forcasting. With analytics, we can now apply scientific principles to determine with some degree of certaintythe future outcomes of business decisions.
The ThinkerNet does not reflect the views of TechWeb. The ThinkerNet is an informal means of communication to members and visitors of the Internet Evolution site. Individual authors are chosen by Internet Evolution to blog. Neither Internet Evolution nor TechWeb assume responsibility for comments, claims, or opinions made by authors and ThinkerNet bloggers. They are no substitute for your own research and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose.
Facebook plans to acquire Titan Aerospace, a solar-powered atmospheric drone manufacturer, for $60 million, according to a TechCrunch report. Titan, founded in 2012, develops drones that carry a 250-pound payload and fly at 65,000 feet for up to five years at a time. Titan Aerospace targets a number of industries, including agriculture, space, meteorology, and disaster response.
More and more companies are allowing or encouraging employees to bring their own mobile devices (BYOD) to work. It's a trend that is expected to become more commonplace in the years ahead, bringing with it management challenges for organizations. This year, according to a report published by research and consulting firm Frost & Sullivan, some 70% of organizations in the US will tolerate or embrace BYOD activity. By 2018, that figure is expected to exceed 78%.
The growing ease of application development has empowered users, enabling them to create software that once required significant time and expense. More users are turning to cloud-based platforms to become developers, building their own business apps to support a growing range of business processes. Often, these apps are considered "disposable," meaning they're built for a specific process need and then tossed out, never to be used again.
You've heard the expression, "Out of the frying pan, into the fire?" Amazon lives in the fire. The e-tailer wins by keeping things hot for its competitors, employees, and itself, according to a new book.
Positec, a manufacturer of power tools for homes and commercial applications, achieves greater customer service flexibility and cuts hold times in half by using a cloud-based service to manage its call center.
Big-data and analytics tools enable marketers to understand customers as individuals, identifying unmet needs and addressing each customer as a "segment of one," says John Kennedy, VP corporate marketing, IBM.
Acquire, Grow & Retain Customers: The Business Imperative for Big Data & Analytics Find out how to use big data and analytics to change how your business interacts with customers by incorporating all sources of data to help forge long-term relationships and realize value. A holistic view of the customer, made possible by big data and analytics, ensures unique experiences and personalized communications. READ THIS eBOOK
your weekly update of news, analysis, and
opinion from Internet Evolution - FREE! REGISTER HERE
Wanted! Site Moderators Internet Evolution is looking for a handful of readers to help moderate the message boards on our site as well as engaging in high-IQ conversation with the industry mavens on our thinkerNet blogosphere. The job comes with various perks, bags of kudos, and GIANT bragging rights. Interested?