The one thing we were missing when it came to write this Big Report was a digital crystal ball. After all, how do you predict the future in a futuristic age? Who casts runes these days or pores over tea-leaves?
Instead, we did some reading and thinking, and reached out to some of our expert contacts, in our best attempt to visualize the World Wide Web -- and our interactions with it -- in the year 2022.
The United States will be on its 45th or 46th President by then. Barack Obama will be in his early sixties. We may or may not have a European Union. About the only thing that seems certain is that Vladimir Putin will still be President of Russia.
2022 is a long way off, but key digital developments are already in hand. The current explosion of mobile connectivity will surely exert an influence 10 years from now. Desktops and laptops -- even tablets -- may be hardware of the past, as we access the information stream using voice, gesture, and retinal displays. Immersion in this all-enveloping data field will change the way we work and think.
The displacement of information from devices will be reflected in the displacement of the worker from the workplace. Accessing the collaborative environment anywhere, anytime, a nomadic workforce will expect IT to manage the streamlining of data through virtual platforms.
As for social media, we're not going too far out on that unpredictable limb. Will Facebook (or perhaps a successor) swallow the Internet whole, locking us into a fully socialized online experience? Or will an adverse reaction set in, driving users back into isolated silos?
Of course, what 2022 looks like will be governed in large part by the political and technological foundations of connectivity. Big changes are looming, but innovations in the basic architecture of the Internet -- like software-defined networking -- could be overtaken by diplomatic developments. Member states of the ITU, meeting in Dubai this December, are capable of throwing international network traffic, and even the domain name system, into utter confusion.
The risk, as ever, is that the decisions that will finally determine the structure and function of the World Wide Web 10 years from now will rest in the hands, not of entrepreneurs or users, but of politicians.
Read the report sequentially, or click specific pages listed below. And please share your thoughts with us on the message boards.
Mr R, you point to the potential for multiple "rogue" Internets and sub-Internets to emerge, some as walled gardens. That's a threat that could work against the vision of a powerful Internet described by D. Hagar below.
Mr. Roques the augmented reality stuff is pretty interesting. Working on this report really made me feel intrigued about the future of AR. I downloaded that subway app. I haven't had an occasion to really use it much, but testing it out was fun. I think there's much more that can be done with something like that in the future, but it's going to take a lot more mapping than we have today.
Compelling thoughts, DHagar! I especially like this thought: "The discovery of how human intelligence can combine with automated intelligence to take advantage of the unique capabilities of each."
It's nice to think of it that way since so often we talk about in the context of one versus the other.
Very interesting bigReport, Kim. I specially liked the access and infrastructure sections, which are the ones I relate the most with. I hadn't seen the augmented reality video, but its very promising and exciting.
Regarding the infrastructure, I wonder if networks, similar to Internet2, will start to come out, maybe in local or regional areas but not only for education and research, but maybe a municipal network that decided to offer access, and that ends up becoming a network big enough to be considered independent (although with obvious and needed access to the "old" internet).
Good post, Deborah. You are underlining the importance of balance. So long as we do not allow ourselves to be distracted and overwhelmed by data, there are great opportunities to put it to the service of our intelligence.
Excellent deep thinking, Paul. This series of blogs are highly though-provoking.
Several points that strike me are:
- The power of the internet. I believe the extended networking and use, coupled with the compounding information that the web provides, open up entire new vistas of power, information, etc. I believe this is why it is increasingly capturing political attention, whether from the Arab Spring, China, or our own interests in access to all information for cyber security.
- Moving beyond capacity to making decisions. The fact that we can no longer keep pace with the evolution or increased capacity that is realized through the internet brings us into a new reality of deciding whats important and how to manage or use the internet.
- The growing realization that data is just pieces of information and that the intelligence is built on information in context and connected with intelligence. This will help us increase our intellectual capabilities rather than be consumed by data, when equally valuing all data.
- The discovery of how human intelligence can combine with automated intelligence to take advantage of the unique capabilities of each. So far we view the battle as man against machine. In reality, the best use is to learn and understand the capabilities of each and how best to use them.
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A post by David Carr of The New York Times titled “A TV Schedule in the Hands of Whoever Holds the Remote” caught my eye this week. Carr points out that this is a sweeps month for TV, with ratings compilations set to help determine advertising rates. But viewing habits, he notes, are changing, and the ratings system doesn't really accommodate that.
The State Opening of Parliament in London last week was a grand occasion. Her Majesty the Queen donned the Crown Jewels and rode in state, escorted by her Foot and Horse Guards, to the Palace of Westminster. There, before the assembled Peers and Members, she read the Queen's Speech, laying out the legislative programme for the new session of Parliament.
When I first got into IT management, I was relatively comfortable as I was in charge of a fairly small group, all located together, responsible for a small, easily defined support area. As I moved up the chain, I became less comfortable. Juggling vendors, staff in multiple locations, maintenance vs. development tasks, and a broad range of technology and business needs all presented challenges. At that point, I began writing down and sharing the rules on how I'd like to operate. The following is that list, divided into various key categories. P.S.: It’s grown a bit over the years.
Recently at IBM Impact in Las Vegas, Scott Laningham and I had the opportunity to sit down with a wide variety of great speakers, including our senior VPs Steve Mills and Mike Rhodin, whose instant replays I've already shared.
Empowered CMOs, Empowered Customers Chief marketing officers (CMOs) are at a crossroads. Like CFOs a decade ago, their position in the organization is about to change dramatically, impacting not only traditional marketing functions like public relations and promotion, but also requiring a greater partnership with fellow C-suite decision makers. In interviews with over 1,700 CMOs worldwide, IBM found that CMOs are keenly aware of their specific set of challenges. READ THIS eBOOK
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Facebook's IPO might change the way VCs look at funding fundamental Internet infrastructure research. If Facebook doesn't do well, VCs might move away from mindless flipping of social media startups and toward something serious. That could be good for everyone.
After a long run of significant growth, cellphone sales dipped by more than 1 percent this quarter, according to market research firm International Data Corp. The change will have a significant impact on vendors, such as Nokia and RIM, who have struggled recently.
Why are we hearing so much about WiFi roaming when what most users say they want is simply automatic registration and re-registration when they move into a hotspot? It may be because carriers want tablets to be made cellular-ready, to make it easier for someone to move from WiFi-only to 3G/4G.
High-performance computing has traditionally been the province of academia, but enterprises are now giving it a serious look. The interest is prompting several universities to consider offering HPC cloud services to private sector organizations.
ICANN is now offering refunds to new applicants for its top-level domain initiative, 10 years in the making, because the application system was taken offline due to a "glitch." ICANN has collected over $350 million in application fees, but we don't know what that number might be after refunds. Is this any way to run the Domain Name System?
Since the early days of television, Nielsen has reigned supreme in the ratings business. With the advent of the Internet, ComScore has emerged as a legitimate competitor. So, game on.
CIOs need to be developing their ROI metrics for cloud now. Why? Because there may be a number of "hidden" fees that need to be added to the vendor's user "per seat" cost.
The Oracle/Google lawsuit is about arcane issues like APIs, but the ramifications of a decision here could touch every single software developer and every piece of software on the Internet. We're going to have to review the decision closely; it could stop innovation in its tracks!
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