This one's more of a mixed bag. On the one hand, Internet copying of printed matter is impossible to prevent -- no matter how much energy you attack this problem with, there's no stopping a reader who's willing to retype a book (scanning, of course, is even more efficient, and getting cheaper and easier by the day).
On the other hand, for many kinds of books -- long-form narratives, for instance -- reading off a screen is a poor substitute for a cheap and easy-to-buy codex. Not because screen quality is insufficient (if it were, we wouldn't all spend every hour that God sends sitting in front of our computers), but because computers are damned distracting.
And don't talk to me about ebook readers: Single-purpose devices that cost $400 a pop aren't going to be choice items for people who resent spending money on books. And they're not going to drop to $40 unless they sell in quantity, and that means adding more features to catch a bigger audience -- at which point your ebook reader is as distracting as a PC.
No, the bad news for books is twofold: First, the quantity and variety of titles carried outside of bookstores has radically declined, thanks to the rise of national big-box chain stores, who do all ordering from a centralized database. That means that it's much harder than it's ever been to stumble across a book at the grocery store that turns you into a lifelong reader. There's some damned fine bookstores out there for people who know that they want a book, but it's a lot harder to acquire that knowledge than it has been for a century or so.
The other problem is that we're increasingly conditioned to read short blocks of text -- more text than ever, but in radically different form than you generally find between covers. Combine this with the sheer amount of read-for-pleasure text available at one-click's distance on the Net, and even those of us who worship books find ourselves reading fewer of them.
Now for the good news: It doesn't cost much to write a novel (I should know, I write 'em). And it doesn't cost much to produce one -- getting cheaper every day, thanks to low-cost, computerized setup and printing.
Electronic books are poor substitutes for print books, which makes them great enticements for print books (enjoy the ebook? Buy the book!). And the Net makes it cheaper than ever to get a few novels into the hands of a few people who love them. Being cheap, novels lend themselves to all sorts of Internet-era business models -- advertising, sponsorship, direct sales, and so on.
If big-budget movies might turn into opera, then long-form narrative books might turn into poetry. There's a hell of a lot of published poetry -- more than ever -- mostly consumed by other poets and a small band of extremely dedicated followers of the form. A few poets make a big living at it, a few more make a marginal living at it, but for most poets, income is aspirational, not reality-based (this is pretty close to the situation in short fiction already, and not far off from the world of novel writing in many genres).
But a future in which novels turn into hand-crafted fetish items for a small group of literati is one in which the relevance of the novel dwindles away to a dribbly nothing.
I think that this one is a toss-up: If I wanted to rescue novels as a culturally relevant mainstream industry (and I do), I'd put the majority of my effort into figuring out ways to get a wide variety of books in front of people who don't go to bookstores.
That's my free idea for the month: If you want to save publishing, start a small, hand-crafted "distributor," complete with a sales force that lays down shoe-leather all day long, knocking on doors at non-bookstores, seeing if they'll sell a few titles to be re-stocked frequently.
There's plenty of ways you can imagine the Internet would help here: Hell, you could just feed the books that sold at the local fried chicken outlet on Friday into Amazon's "If you liked this book, you might like that book" engine and stock those titles the next day.
It may not work, but no one ever saved a medium by demanding that it be profitable because it was a social good. Sarkozy can give away free newspaper subs to 18-year-olds until les vaches come home, but it won't change the technological shifts that are bleeding out the old broadsheets.
— Cory Doctorow, Internet activist, blogger, co-editor of Boing Boing
I'm surprised that we're still making paper from trees. With all the technology available, we've yet to create synthetic paper? I mean it could involve some sort of genetic engineering and manufacturing..sheesh!!
I agree, Aleksandra82. After a thousand years, the market for books remains strong. There are still many people out there in love with this medium.
However, as others point out, loving the medium doesn't mean loving paper, necessarily. There's certainly no reason to kill more trees if we can find an alternative for book production that allows us to continue reading, writing, and editing books in a satisfying way. As a lifelong book lover, I'm open to that kind of change.
I recall having a discussion with a tv/film crew member about the future of film development. I'm referring to digital versus traditional film.."film rolling..action!" In the mid 90's many thought that digital filming would not take over traditional. I'm assuming this did indeed take place. I do know it is a significant decrease in cost of production.
What can we expect the production cost (minus crew and actors) to be for a film with a $50 million budget today in 10 years?
video embedding - the best thing since the internet sliced bread!
If books don't survive as well as you're predicting, how will it impact Barnes and Noble and smaller booksellers? I firmly believe book sales will see a decline, however will not ever become obsolete so as long as paper is available. When display technologies such as hologram projectors become ubiquitous as cell phones are today, lugging books around would almost be against logic in my opinion.
Will our education system rely on books (printed text) when interactive mediums prove their value to be higher(efficient productivity) than traditional text? Especially when costs (at least in public education) is a factor.
I have an impression that most of the people who are affraid that the book will soon disappear are those who are not engaged in the editorial business. I remember long, never-ending discussions during our seminars in journalism, culture and media, as well as in philosophy and easthetics, when all the students and professors phophetized the end of the book. The question was not if, but when. However, whenever I have a chance to talk to someone working in the field of publishing I ask about his or her views concerning the future of this business and obviously I usually expect a very pessimistic answer. But it's not happening. People who work in the business, manage new projects and release new titles are calm and relaxed. They are aware of the fact that the market changes and that they need to be more flexible, but they also know surpus value of their work lyes not in the publishing (because that's what the digital technology does), but in the editing itself. And that there will always be a need to make a book out of a text. What is more, the new technologies support the development of alternative distribution channels as well as inventing new tools of CRM. On the other hand, tax preferences support the availability of books on the market. Let us not forget that education on its higher and lower levels is still in 95% based on books... and, last but not least, most of the surveys show that there is a pretty stable group of people whowant to buy and read books no mather what. And there always is a supply where there is a demand.
I've loved reading ever since I was a kid. My mom bought me a copy of The Adventures of Tom Sawyer when I was around ten and, from then on, I was hooked on fiction. But now that I'm already grown up, I found myself having to struggle with reading amidst the many responsibilities that come with adult life.
I've had very little success until late last year. I got a PDA phone and loaded e-books (free from Project Gutenberg!) and articles from my favorite marketing Web sites onto it. Now, I could read in while quequeing, waiting for a friends to arrive, burning the few minutes left in my lunch break, etc. Nothing beats reading on paper, but I certainly couldn't carry that much paper around all the time, unlike my near-weightless Nokia. This time, I'd have to thank technology for bringing culture back into my life.
right on - travelling on a train and watching Raging Bull on a laptop makes me think "what's the big deal with this guy" and trying to remember when i saw it in the theater, i was just blown away.
Star Wars - honestly must be seen in a theater or better yet, a drive-in. Close Encounters at a drive-in is just about as chilling as Halloween in almost any medium (except iPod when it's about as annoying as a mosquito).
There are just too many great things that cannot be enjoyed fully on a small screen. For example, it's just too hard to really see the facial reactions of people when you view it on a small screen especially when they are supposed to see something "big" (like King Kong, Godzilla, and others) and both of them have to be shown together on the screen. It is also too hard to really feel the intensity of the action when it is seen on a small monitor (like Star Wars, Titanic, Independence Day, etc).
The laptop and the iPod may offer some convenience. But still convenience does not really guarantee full enjoyment or satisfaction.
I agree - watching some films on a smaller monitor or (egad) any iPod just doesn't blow the candles out on my birthday cake. Convenient? Without a doubt! Thought it possible when I was a kid (mearly 30 years ago) - not even a dream.
But I cannot watch Lawrence of Arabia on something small, likewise for greats like Star Wars, 2001, or even Rocky and The Godfather. Sometimes, the stuff is bigger than the screen and dreams happen when this occurs - it is what why I went to film school.
The ThinkerNet does not reflect the views of TechWeb. The ThinkerNet is an informal means of communication to members and visitors of the Internet Evolution site. Individual authors are chosen by Internet Evolution to blog. Neither Internet Evolution nor TechWeb assume responsibility for comments, claims, or opinions made by authors and ThinkerNet bloggers. They are no substitute for your own research and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose.
A little taste of an apocalyptic scenario occurred last Friday when a large chunk of the Internet was unreachable for up to an hour. Similar to the plot of a Hollywood horror movie, this was an experiment that went wrong -- on one of the most important protocols of the Internet system.
The Internet in all its forms has become a core part of how we communicate, socialize, and handle very personal business every day. But protection of individual privacy is spotty at best, and it seems to be getting worse every day. As we become an increasingly digital nation, do access to, and privacy on, the Internet become civil rights?
At Apple’s announcement fest Wednesday, among the launch of the new iPods and the $99 Apple TV box, was the announcement about Ping, a music-based social network that out-of-the-gate has more than 160 million users, all with credit cards. Of course, it’s only about music today, but there’s nothing to stop Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) from expanding it if it suits its purposes down the road.
Getting to Work on Smart Work: How IT Is Transforming the Implementation of the 'Internet of Things' Organizations in all industry sectors are becoming more instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent -- and that's changing the way they approach virtually every facet of their operations. It's up to IT to help organizations adopt a "Three I's" approach that leverages the emerging Internet of Things and enables them to work smarter. READ THIS eBOOK
your weekly update of news, analysis, and
opinion from Internet Evolution - FREE! REGISTER HERE
Wanted! Site Moderators Internet Evolution is looking for a handful of readers to help moderate the message boards on our site – as well as engaging in high-IQ conversation with the industry mavens on our thinkerNet blogosphere. The job comes with various perks, bags of kudos, and GIANT bragging rights. Interested?
To save this item to your list of favorite Internet Evolution content so you can find it later in your Profile page, click the "Save It" button next to the item.
Nielsen’s recent numbers on the increasing use of texting bode well for enterprise networks. Shunning the phone in favor of text messaging could mean reducing bandwidth.
RIM is giving in to demands by India to snoop on encrypted BlackBerry data. It's time to develop cheap or free encryption software for BlackBerrys and other cellular phones.
Two studios have filed suit against an ad broker for placing ads to help monetize P2P sites suspected of copyright infringement. That's taking a dangerous step toward what might be a worthy goal.
By 2014, mobile devices will overtake laptops as the appliance of choice for consumers. But device makers still have some wishes to fulfill, including mobile app simplification and the ability to better perform word processing/spreadsheet functions.
Google's foray into pay-for-view movies may be an indicator that the days of free ad-sponsored content are numbered, or at least that ad sponsorship won't fund nearly enough content.
Online education, improving to better replicate the interactions that occur between teachers and students face-to-face, grew in double digits during the recession. Still, there’s more work to be done.
Google's decision to link VoIP calling of PSTN numbers with Gmail, and to let Google Voice "call" Gmail VoIP clients, will devalue the PSTN and force telcos to fund unprofitable services or create their own VoIP transitions.
Digg
Del.icio.us
Reddit
Email This
TWEET THIS
