Let me start by saying that I like newspapers. And let me say further that, no matter how much I like them, they just might not have a future.
The Internet chews up media and spits them out again. Sometimes they get more robust. Sometimes they get more profitable. Sometimes they die.
It's a scary thought, especially if you're personally attached to an old medium like movies, books, records, or newspapers.
But just because an industry is socially worthy, it doesn't follow that it is commercially viable. Today, besides newspapers, three other media are thrashing over their futures in a networked world, and as with newspapers, the rhetoric is mostly of the nonproductive "But I like it!" and "It's good for society!" variety, with not enough thought given to whether these media are commercially viable in the Internet age.
In this report, we will take a closer look at the "media-morphosis" taking place across traditional media -- and what that tells us about the future.
I'm surprised that we're still making paper from trees. With all the technology available, we've yet to create synthetic paper? I mean it could involve some sort of genetic engineering and manufacturing..sheesh!!
I agree, Aleksandra82. After a thousand years, the market for books remains strong. There are still many people out there in love with this medium.
However, as others point out, loving the medium doesn't mean loving paper, necessarily. There's certainly no reason to kill more trees if we can find an alternative for book production that allows us to continue reading, writing, and editing books in a satisfying way. As a lifelong book lover, I'm open to that kind of change.
I recall having a discussion with a tv/film crew member about the future of film development. I'm referring to digital versus traditional film.."film rolling..action!" In the mid 90's many thought that digital filming would not take over traditional. I'm assuming this did indeed take place. I do know it is a significant decrease in cost of production.
What can we expect the production cost (minus crew and actors) to be for a film with a $50 million budget today in 10 years?
video embedding - the best thing since the internet sliced bread!
If books don't survive as well as you're predicting, how will it impact Barnes and Noble and smaller booksellers? I firmly believe book sales will see a decline, however will not ever become obsolete so as long as paper is available. When display technologies such as hologram projectors become ubiquitous as cell phones are today, lugging books around would almost be against logic in my opinion.
Will our education system rely on books (printed text) when interactive mediums prove their value to be higher(efficient productivity) than traditional text? Especially when costs (at least in public education) is a factor.
I have an impression that most of the people who are affraid that the book will soon disappear are those who are not engaged in the editorial business. I remember long, never-ending discussions during our seminars in journalism, culture and media, as well as in philosophy and easthetics, when all the students and professors phophetized the end of the book. The question was not if, but when. However, whenever I have a chance to talk to someone working in the field of publishing I ask about his or her views concerning the future of this business and obviously I usually expect a very pessimistic answer. But it's not happening. People who work in the business, manage new projects and release new titles are calm and relaxed. They are aware of the fact that the market changes and that they need to be more flexible, but they also know surpus value of their work lyes not in the publishing (because that's what the digital technology does), but in the editing itself. And that there will always be a need to make a book out of a text. What is more, the new technologies support the development of alternative distribution channels as well as inventing new tools of CRM. On the other hand, tax preferences support the availability of books on the market. Let us not forget that education on its higher and lower levels is still in 95% based on books... and, last but not least, most of the surveys show that there is a pretty stable group of people whowant to buy and read books no mather what. And there always is a supply where there is a demand.
I've loved reading ever since I was a kid. My mom bought me a copy of The Adventures of Tom Sawyer when I was around ten and, from then on, I was hooked on fiction. But now that I'm already grown up, I found myself having to struggle with reading amidst the many responsibilities that come with adult life.
I've had very little success until late last year. I got a PDA phone and loaded e-books (free from Project Gutenberg!) and articles from my favorite marketing Web sites onto it. Now, I could read in while quequeing, waiting for a friends to arrive, burning the few minutes left in my lunch break, etc. Nothing beats reading on paper, but I certainly couldn't carry that much paper around all the time, unlike my near-weightless Nokia. This time, I'd have to thank technology for bringing culture back into my life.
right on - travelling on a train and watching Raging Bull on a laptop makes me think "what's the big deal with this guy" and trying to remember when i saw it in the theater, i was just blown away.
Star Wars - honestly must be seen in a theater or better yet, a drive-in. Close Encounters at a drive-in is just about as chilling as Halloween in almost any medium (except iPod when it's about as annoying as a mosquito).
There are just too many great things that cannot be enjoyed fully on a small screen. For example, it's just too hard to really see the facial reactions of people when you view it on a small screen especially when they are supposed to see something "big" (like King Kong, Godzilla, and others) and both of them have to be shown together on the screen. It is also too hard to really feel the intensity of the action when it is seen on a small monitor (like Star Wars, Titanic, Independence Day, etc).
The laptop and the iPod may offer some convenience. But still convenience does not really guarantee full enjoyment or satisfaction.
I agree - watching some films on a smaller monitor or (egad) any iPod just doesn't blow the candles out on my birthday cake. Convenient? Without a doubt! Thought it possible when I was a kid (mearly 30 years ago) - not even a dream.
But I cannot watch Lawrence of Arabia on something small, likewise for greats like Star Wars, 2001, or even Rocky and The Godfather. Sometimes, the stuff is bigger than the screen and dreams happen when this occurs - it is what why I went to film school.
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