Well, the new year is upon us. Time to cast off bad habits, internalize new resolutions, and call for the untimely death of a few Internet industries by year's end.
OK... we won't take things that far. But we are ready to declare a few technologies to watch this year, as the VC well dries up, business models continue to fail to work or even materialize, and the recession comes around to cull the tech industry's weakest. It's safe to say, for some, 2009 will not be a good year.
The technologies outlined in this report (microblogs, targeted advertising, social news, online video, streaming music, and enterprise social networking) aren't necessarily going to be wiped off the map, never to be heard from again, per se, but evidence suggests that there are rough times ahead and that many companies in each of these spaces won't survive '09.
Nor should they, really. While Web 2.0 sites aren't lacking in "traffic" or "eyeballs," originality in the space is sparse, and establishing a business model is considered, by some, an ancient pastime devoid of purpose. Traffic first, revenue later. Just try paying the bills with charts that show higher click-through rates.
"What I find scary in this new world is that, instead of entrepreneurs living on the edge of reason and fantasy, there are so many 'me-too' social media experts out there right now," observes serial entrepreneur and media personality Imran Anwar. "That's not how new evolutions come about. That's not how 'Internet 3.0' is going to come around."
Fortunately, there's a silver lining (we think). Whereas the past couple of years have been defined by overcrowding and overfunding in the Web 2.0 space, and an onslaught of startups with no purpose or plan to make money, this recessionary year is likely to see more due diligence on the part of VCs, allowing strong companies and technologies to emerge from the smoldering pile of dead ones.
Then we'll have at least a year or so before we screw it up all over again.
Want to disagree with our Watch List? That's your prerogative (albeit a daring one), and we'd love to hear your thoughts on the message boards below. Have we nailed the techs to watch? Left any out? Feel free to opine, but keep your eyes peeled for falling tech companies.
EliteC... "Brothers and Sisters," right? ;) I saw that, too, and it was the first time I heard "Twitter" -- and perhaps Facebook -- mentioned on a television show. It somehow didn't seem natural, actually.
From our perspective the future my be cloudy, if not bleak, but development on new microblogs seems to continue at full force! College students now have their own Yammer. Last week, Wiggio
came out of beta with a new look and a slew of group messaging and
group management features. For each private group that you create,
Wiggio provides a Twitter-like message stream from all the group
members. But it also includes a slew of other features such as a shared
calendar, mass text and voice messaging, file-sharing (including online
docs and spreadheets), polling, and more.
Now....whenI first heard about twitter I was watching a television show for the first time in which one of the daughters from a large familt was trying to get investors for her IT business and she did not know what "Twitter" was.
"Aside from subscription services, the "hot" business model in the
industry right now appears to be selling virtual goods on sites like
Facebook and Second Life. Wonder what our readers' thoughts on those
are."
With the exception of online gaming communities (eg. XBoxLive, WoW), where the virtual goods - a new weapon in WoW, a better sports car for Gotham Racing - deliver a tangible benefit, the market for such goods is likely to crater in 2009. Owning an island in Second Life populated by a gorgeous, made-over avatar was a pretty frivolous expenditure even before the recession hit us, and is now simply ridiculous.
Of course the upside is that at least you'll have a virtual home to live in while they're foreclosing on your real one.
"When I first heard of twitter, I thought it was the most retarded thing that I'd ever heard of. But it got a lot of press, so I looked into it a bit more. It still seemed dumb. I read "amazing" twitter stories, and it still seemed dumb. I used it, and it still seemed dumb."
Stop right there Drowlord. No need to ellaborate or go further. You just nailed the essence of Twitter.
When I first heard of twitter, I thought it was the most retarded thing that I'd ever heard of. But it got a lot of press, so I looked into it a bit more. It still seemed dumb. I read "amazing" twitter stories, and it still seemed dumb. I used it, and it still seemed dumb.
I used another site called Polls Boutique. Which seemed dumb to me. But when I played around with it, I "got it." It's about the participation, rather than the content. I'm guessing that Twitter is the same deal -- that the content is virtually meaningless, but that participation is "the value" generated by the system.
I have to agree with Nicole, though. Sacrificing content for participation may be a decent way to generate traffic. But you don't wind up with assets to monetize. I imagine the future of microblogging -- just as she said -- will be a widget on MySpace or Facebook. Or maybe a generic web component that gets added to a billion websites, which most people will ignore.
Twitter needs to expand its basis. What are you doing now is all fun and games, but it is not really useful and everynetworking site has it. Basically it needs daily, weekly, monthly categories. As well, it needs to break down the current situations into groups and then connect the groups. If there are twenty strangers looking for Channel purses, they should be connected and then they should be informed through Twitter of new products from Channel. Like the post before it could be used for business. Under categories of work and industry, people could post I'm looking for a solution for xyz, anyone within the subcategories could be informed on their feed. These twits could stay up for a day, week, month, or until the person finds the solution from either AdWords grouping or from other twitters.
advertual.com has key components discussed in a blog about this process for development
...I really thought I could find a flaw in your arguments, but I can't! The only point I think could be added are these:
1. Regardless of the probable failure of many specific ventures in over-crowded niches, I still remember that in 1908 or thereabouts there were 400 automobile companies (more or less). Now we're not sure how many will survive the year, but there are an awful lot of cars out there. I'm glad I didn't have to guess which companies would have made good investments in 1908...
In other words, as some other commenters have mentioned, it's still true that if something is very popular and widely used, somebody will (eventually, perhaps) figure out how to make money. IMHO
2. It's not easy to find companies whose business models are successful in any industry or category right now, so knocking these particular ones doesn't really make them stand out Anyone want to bet on which technologies/industries will thrive in 2009?
Maybe with a little creativity and cooperation among both parties involved we can develop ads that show up when there's a transition in the movie or video (for short clips that might have to be the end or beginning) but for longer ones, I'm sure they can run mid-roll ads without really interrupting the viewer (if they don't interrupt the show).
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In big cities or well populated suburban areas of the United States, broadband is ubiquitous. Getting it is as easy as calling the local cable company and asking to send someone over to hook it up. But in other areas around the country, broadband is non-existent. And the sheer number of people without it might surprise some of the luckier Web users who have high-speed Internet connections.
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The beauty of the digital world is that it offers logs and metrics. This can also be a huge problem. Many organizations base everything, from investment value to performance bonuses to what an author is paid per piece, solely on these metrics.
As the array of cloud computing alternatives expands, the debate regarding industry standards seems to escalate. The idea of standards is not new to the technology industry, but applying these principles to the cloud computing environment poses unique challenges.
Most of us would hate to live in a house made of glass. Yet that is what the Internet is -- a big glass house into which many people can peer and see where you are surfing and what you are up to.
Getting to Work on Smart Work: How IT Is Transforming the Implementation of the 'Internet of Things' Organizations in all industry sectors are becoming more instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent -- and that's changing the way they approach virtually every facet of their operations. It's up to IT to help organizations adopt a "Three I's" approach that leverages the emerging Internet of Things and enables them to work smarter. READ THIS eBOOK
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There's a public-policy war on copyright that nobody is winning, and inconsistencies in viewpoint and interpretation seem to be multiplying. We need to step back and think our policies over again, or we risk having a strategy that fails everyone.
Ultraviolet is an industry-wide attempt to standardize video content delivery across multiple platforms. Apart from the fact that it’s based in the cloud, relies on the DRM system, and isn’t backed by Apple… it sounds great!
The FCC's Sixth Broadband Report has a hidden secret. But here’s a hint: The regulatory body plans to regulate broadband as a telecommunications service.
Once defined by epic journeys, planning, and maps, the phrase "on the road" takes on new meaning in a digital age, where we can make all our decisions using our connected devices en route.
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