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André Amoranto

Tumblr Could Threaten the Future of Twitter

Written by André Amoranto
11/9/2010 21 comments
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You’d have to live under a rock to escape the reach of Twitter Inc. 's worldwide influence. Entertainers, athletes, politicians, business leaders, and everyday people use Twitter to maintain their relationships with the world.

But Twitter could be knocked from its position by an energetic upstart.

Despite the popularity of Twitter, it has its frustrating limits. Many people, including yours truly, find it challenging to share interesting ideas in 140 characters or less.

Enter microblogging service Tumblr. Founded a year after Twitter in 2007 by entrepreneur David Karp, Tumblr does not have as big a name or following as Twitter, but it may actually be a better service.

First, Tumblr has no set character limit. Also, while Twitter only allows limited text, pictures, and links, Tumblr allows all of this while letting people post video files and audio in MP3 format. Tumblr also offers the options of saving drafts of posts and the ability to schedule posts to go out via queue.

You might ask yourself, if services such as Tumblr exist, then why is Twitter so popular? One look around the Web and you will quickly discover there is barely any real competition for Twitter other than Tumblr. Sure, you can post status updates to Facebook in a manner similar to Twitter. Google Buzz is another service competing in the microblogging site market, but ironically, it hasn't had very much “buzz,” so to speak.

If a service like Twitter is so popular, then one must ask, why is there so little competition? Well, for one thing, besides people such as Brad Pitt, Barack Obama, or Steve Jobs, is anyone out there really so interesting that they need to let the world know what they are up to?

Also, and more importantly, a service such as Twitter isn't exactly the most financially feasible product. Twitter has struggled to find a way to monetize the space and gain revenue.

In fact, Twitter has survived primarily on funding from investors. To date, Twitter has received more than $100 million in funding but has yet to produce a healthy return on those investments. Furthermore, no one knows their plan to make money as they refuse to discuss their plan... if it exists.

In comparison, Tumblr obtained just $10 million in funding, and they have made efforts to make money. Even though use of the site is free, members have the option to pay for a “premium theme” for their blog page as well as paying to have their blog featured on the front page of the site.

In contrast, considering how long Twitter has been in operation, it makes me wonder if it can actually turn a profit.

Why is it that Twitter struggles to turn a profit? Over the years, young, techy entrepreneurs have created great ideas that have spawned Internet companies, but when it comes to running a company, few are successful -- that is, until they get experienced business leaders to come in. Just look at the moves Mark Zuckerburg has made.

Bottom line? Judging by the popularity of the space and the number of users involved, the microblog category is probably going to be just fine. But, Twitter's days may be numbered due to no sign of revenues. It may be the dominant microblogging service now, but things may change, as Tumblr grows and takes more market share.

Currently, Tumblr claims to be acquiring more than 15,000 new members per day with 2 million posts made on the site daily. While the popularity of Twitter is impressive, its lack of a business plan, revenue model, and any clear executive leadership could cause Twitter to get “Tumblr’d” from its top spot.

— André Amoranto is a student of journalism and sociology based in Palm Springs, Calif.

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pjpugliese
IQ Crew
Thursday November 18, 2010 5:18:17 PM
no ratings

No problem Mitch :)

Mitch Wagner
Thinkernetter
Monday November 15, 2010 4:24:09 PM
no ratings

pjpugliese - Thanks for the correction!

pjpugliese
IQ Crew
Sunday November 14, 2010 2:02:17 PM
no ratings

Mitch, Twitter does monetize on their ads, but I don't think they make money from CoTweet. CoTweet is a separate company, and was acquired by ExactTarget. It utilizes Twitter, but isn't owned by them. 

http://blog.exacttarget.com/blog/scott-dorsey/0/0/exacttarget-acquires-cotweet

usws
Rank: Cave Painter
Saturday November 13, 2010 1:14:36 PM
no ratings

I think the appeal of twitter (compared to tumlr at least) is that it FORCES a character limit on its users. Some are lazy, some don't have the time and/or some don't like the pressure of writing something long and twitter makes its a leveled playing field for all its users (e.g. people with short attention spans?) in that sense.

Mitch Wagner
Thinkernetter
Thursday November 11, 2010 11:25:38 AM
no ratings

J DAmbrosio: I'm not sure why you say they don't have a monetization plan when in fact they are monetizing. They're selling ads -- they call them by other names, but that's what they are. Also, they offer a Twitter collaboration service, CoTweet, for enterprises that use Twitter for marketing and customer relations, of which there are quite a few; I believe the beginning version is free but there's a high-end version that's paid. 

So they are already working on business models. They're not just sitting with their hands folded hoping for a billionaire to ride up on a white horse and save them. 

 

Michael Bennett Cohn
Thinkernetter
Thursday November 11, 2010 10:41:15 AM
no ratings

The fact that Twitter isn't shouting their monetization plans from the rooftops doesn't mean that they don't have one. They're sitting on a lot of money, and they have a lot of smart people working there. What do you think they spend their days doing at the office? 

J DAmbrosio
Rank: Cyborg
Thursday November 11, 2010 8:57:56 AM
no ratings

I'm not sure if they really have a model beyond "let's get really big and wait for the offer of a lifetime buy-out from one of the other players to come" as their strategy.  Something above what they owe their VCs, so they could walk away and move onto the next "big" thing and have a nice profit bump to boot...

Problem is, not sure that offer will ever be coming -- it may have grown too big, too fast all on it's own.

 

JD

 

tsaleem
IQ Crew
Wednesday November 10, 2010 10:49:43 PM

Thanks Mitch. Posterous does seem tad bit easier to use. Tight integration with twitter and facebook is what gives it the edge. 

Mitch Wagner
Thinkernetter
Wednesday November 10, 2010 3:00:44 PM

@Chris Poley - Twitter seems to be doing nicely evolving a business model, with theirs sponsored tweet and other ad programs. We'll see where that goes. 

Mitch Wagner
Thinkernetter
Wednesday November 10, 2010 2:58:57 PM

@tsaleem - Tumblr exists in a niche also occupied by Posterous (which I'm a fan of) and the late VOX service from Movable Type. I'm not aware of a name for this category. You might call it "simple blogging." The idea is that this is a service usable by civilians without technology chops, who could use it to share posts with friends and family. The posts would be shorter than full-length articles, but longer than tweets. 

The emergence of this category is kind of funny because this is where blogging started out in the late 90s, as places to quickly jot down thoughts and opinions and links to interesting web sites, and share that information with colleagues, friends, and family. However, since the early days blogging has evolved to the point where people think blogging is a big, hairy business proposition -- think Huffington Post or TechCrunch -- and that we need something new to do the simple things. 

I prefer Posterous to Tumblr because of its tight integration with Twitter, Facebook, and other social media services and blogging platforms. 

 

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