I’m not a big fan of Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL)’s generally closed business practices, especially when it comes to the art known as the iPhone app approval process.
Admittedly, Apple’s approach hasn’t seemed to hurt the company. According to recently released data from Gartner Inc. , the iPhone is threatening to overtake Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM) (Nasdaq: RIMM; Toronto: RIM) for second place in the smartphone war, with 17 percent of worldwide unit market share and shipments growing at nearly a 50 percent annual clip.
But with the Droid now shipping and early feedback very positive, I feel we’re at an inflection point in the mobile Internet. I’ve predicted that eventually, we’ll see “good enough” competitors to iPhone and a much richer ecosystem evolve over time. This cartoon from comic site xkcd
sums it up perfectly:
Source: xkcd
The key to the future of the mobile Web is the developer community. This rich ecosystem of creative and incredibly productive individuals, like the developer community that catapulted Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) to its status many years ago, is the engine of innovation for technology platforms.
Now there’s little question that in sheer numbers, with about 100,000 apps, the App Store blows away Android, which has fewer than 15,000 apps. But we’re starting to see a developer backlash around Apple’s onerous policies, and while I don’t expect that iPhone users will suffer from a lack of quality apps, I believe that over time, the Android market will explode with innovation and creativity that will challenge Apple’s closed model.
As proof of developer frustration, let’s look at some high-profile examples.
Joe Hewitt is a very well respected developer who worked on Firefox and had a major hand in developing the Facebook iPhone app. He recently decided to give up developing for iPhone because of Apple’s review process. I follow Joe Hewitt
on Twitter, and he posted a link to his blog last Friday that contained this telling paragraph:
I do not wish to fight any mobile device makers who want to create a software ecosystem and act as the gatekeepers for that ecosystem. What I do want to fight for is the viability of the mobile web.
Joe also Tweeted this:
For every dev that leaves iPhone in frustration, 1000 new ones join up. iPhone is an unstoppable train regardless of how much we complain.
Hmmm... Maybe. Maybe not.
Fraser Speirs, the guy who wrote FlickrExport, rails on the App Store approval and rejection process, calling it a “running joke” in the wider tech community.
And Justin Williams of Second Gear wrote in a blog:
I am one step closer to selling off my iPhone products and focusing entirely on the Mac once more. I can’t help but feel that I’ve wasted the past 9 months of my life building on a platform that is so hostile and anti-developer.
Developer Manton Reece, who also recently stopped iPhone development, wrote in a blog that Apple has only two choices: 1) Accept all apps; or 2) Allow apps to be installed on iPhone without being listed in the App Store. Reece says there is no other option.
I disagree. Apple could do nothing and suffer its fate, again.
— David Vellante spent 15 years at IDC and is a founder of The Wikibon Project. He can be reached on Twitter at @dvellante.
I would not count Microsoft out. The have a program called BizSpark where they actually help fund startups with more or less free software. And Windows Mobile has a strong enterprise position, and a good way to develop across various screen sizes and form factors.
Despite the fact that Android uses Open source (Java platform), it is Java ME implementation but the code is not run within Java ME virtual machine; hence, Java-compiled classes and executables will not run natively. Instead, Google has their own Java environment (Dalvik). In a way, Google still tries to take control of Android App in a certain degree.
Also, Android has different version and different screen size which make it a little bit harder for developer (in particular, web app developer) to handle all those different version of Android and each screen size. iPhone, on the other hand, has a consistent screen size for all their version (for now) & the update might be easier to handle than Android.
Dont forget Palm WebOS who trakles the market differently by using Web environment natively. Therefore, any iPhone Web app currently available can be converted to Palm WebOS easily.
I would say each of them all has advantages & disadvantages. Nevertheless, Apple is still the one to watch for. Having said that, I hope Apple is listening and do not make the same mistake they made before.
With all the mobile device war is going on, we should never forget that this is not about Apple or Google; and, this is not about developers either. Instead, this is all about the consumers, to make consumers happy requires a lot of work that involve both developers and the mobile companies and many other parties.
Android is open & they allow developers to take control. So, the answer is yes we would expect many apps from Android. However, Google is yet to find solution to their distribution channel to be better than it is now. iTune is still the best in the market, then I can see Palm at the end of this year to be something to watch for.
look what happened to Sun microsystems with there operating systems....open source came in and overtime ruled the roost and now sun has gone to open source. I think the same will happen with the iphone....its not gonna happen overnight but if apple continues to keep itself isolated it will happen.
Dave - thanks for sharing this link. I'm repeating it below because it was such a useful read. If people have time (it's a multi-part series of long articles) and are interested in this topic this is the best in-depth article I've seen.
For the best in-depth article I've seen on this topic please read Prince McLean's excellent in-depth article on Roughly Drafted Magazine published here:
Inside Google’s Android and Apple’s iPhone OS as software markets
I haven't researched this extensively but anecdotally, it appears that while there are definitely great stories of iPhone app developers hitting it big financially, it's not a guarantee and not the norm.
I completely agree with your point about numbers. However, I'm afraid that we're likely to see 100,000 apps for Android just as we do for iPhone. For the manufacturers and the carriers it's all about numbers and I don't think we'll ever get away from that.
Can we drop the Apple's 100,000 apps vs. Google's 10,000 (or 15K, as stated in the article) argument? Is anyone really going to use 100,000 apps? Or even 10,000 for that matter? Do we really need 27 "Find a restaurant in a strange city" apps? I think 2 or 3 would suffice. Every article about Android vs. the iPhone that I've read (other than specs on the Droid) in the last two months references this supposed disparity. You obviously have to take into account the amount of time the iPhone has been around compared to the amount of time the Droid has. Variety may be the spice of life, but c'mon!
I think David's central argument about developer satisfaction is the key-- developers have seen how lucrative it can be to design apps for Apple but they also have to suffer the indignities of the "joke of a process" those apps go through to get vetted and approved. I'm hoping Google lures away some good developers and we get some killer apps/good, healthy competition, I just hope we don't end up with 100,000 for the Android as well. Who has the time or desire to wade through that many apps looking for gold?
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