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David Vellante

Don't Flush Google WiFi Plans Just Yet

Written by David Vellante
8/31/2009 29 comments
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This month marked the third anniversary of the launch of Google’s Mountain View WiFi network. The free broadband access network covers about 12 square miles in Silicon Valley and is powered by hundreds of Tropos WiFi nodes.

Of course, the mayor of Mountain View, Margaret Abe-Koba, is supportive, saying: "The Google WiFi network is a valuable community resource and helps increase economic development by making it easy for residents and visitors to stay connected anywhere around town. We are very pleased that Google continues to support our community with this robust service."

Three years ago, when the free network was launched, expectations were high that Google would build out a series of wireless networks across the nation, delighting the mayors of other cities. In fact, the company still has a page on its Website saying it plans to launch a Google WiFi network in San Francisco, even though it’s unlikely that will happen soon.

A series of events, including Google buying up dark fiber in the mid 2000s and its activism in the telecommunications space (e.g., bidding on spectrum, lobbying the government, etc.), led many to speculate that Google was becoming an ISP with the intent of subsidizing its network with ad revenue.

But it’s apparent that it was never Google’s intent to jump into the telecommunications business in the near term; its highest bid for C-block spectrum was many times lower than bids from the big telcos. Rather, the company wanted to exert its influence over the FCC to impose open access rules on the winners. Having a seat at the auction table provided good leverage.

Then there’s the matter of Google’s patent application to provide ads to end users accessing the Internet through a wireless access point (WAP), which Google filed earlier this decade. The patent even specifies a method for revenue sharing with carriers.

Google has always claimed it had no secret plans to monetize the free wireless network in Mountain View, and the company has admonished us not to infer any products or services from patent filings -- but it’s hard to imagine Google not using its experiences with its free WiFi network to further its Internet advertising dominance.

The smart money says having a Petri dish in its backyard to learn from the experience will give Google a leg up on figuring out mobile advertising.

That market is building: TV advertising is expected to drop below $70 billion this year, according to eMarketer Inc. , while online advertising continues to grow and is expected to surpass $25 billion in 2009.

About half of the online advertising business will come from search, and while search is a very small component of mobile advertising today, it is expected to dominate mobile markets eventually. Unfortunately, as discussed in this video, major brands can’t yet demonstrate the ROI of mobile advertising in a way that’s compelling relative to traditional online ads, leaving the mobile ad engine sputtering.

Unlike Google’s Toilet Internet Service Provider (TiSP) service, however, I don’t think Google’s ready to flush its wireless plans down the commode just yet. While mobile advertising is currently too immature and risky for Google to invest the billions needed to build out a nationwide wireless infrastructure, having a 12-square-mile wireless laboratory in Google's hometown is a no-brainer investment in the future.

— David Vellante spent 15 years at IDC and is a founder of The Wikibon Project. He can be reached on Twitter at @dvellante.

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Bobby Vassallo
Rank: Web master
Sunday December 27, 2009 10:41:33 PM
no ratings

Michael,

What are your thoughts on a Clearwire purchase by Google.  They'd get major cities all over the US and could blow hotspots everywhere, generating revenue off the WiMax and the advertising.  Seems like a plan to me.  I think Clearwire is on the right path, but they could use Google's cash.  Perfect marriage?  Bobby Vassallo  http://CityWirelessConsulting.com

mhhfive
IQ Crew
Tuesday September 1, 2009 7:34:48 PM
no ratings

Reaching a large number of people is probably not going to happen with a network of hotspots... but if the unlicensed spectrum technology improves, Google may be well-positioned to take advantage of it.  Will femtocell equipment ever mature?

Chris Poley
Thinkernetter
Tuesday September 1, 2009 9:40:41 AM
no ratings

Whatever Google's WIFI plans are, you can bet they are not philanthropic in this specific instance.  As readers have mentioned and in particular Michael,  this has everything to do with maintaining their dominance in search by securitizing every available technology concerning data stream.  WIFI is just another means to an end. 

 

 

jabailo
IQ Crew
Monday August 31, 2009 11:26:06 PM
no ratings

Google seems to have the Microsoft disease of using its dominance in one market to flood the market with free products and services in many others.

There is no reason for Google to do Wifi when it's available for very low costs already from Boingo and Att, and Wimax is rolling out across the country from companies such as Clear.

So, I'm not sure of the logic of Google's strategy since many times they end up offing companies that have no competition with them and in fact may be symbiotic.   

To me, it seems rather nutty.

 

 

 

Dave B
Rank: Fire starter
Monday August 31, 2009 7:49:57 PM

3 years doesn't seem like much time when you consider the challenges Google faces, noted by many of the responses to this article. However with the convergence of portable laptops & mobile phones & what it would mean to the number of additional "eyes" viewing its ads Google most definitely not give up on their plans just yet. Maybe Google is waiting for the technology to catch up or government policies and regulations to change however Google will stay for the long haul.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

David Vellante
Thinkernetter
Monday August 31, 2009 7:35:52 PM
no ratings

Ira...Free is a very powerful concept in marketing and difficult to compete with. btw...Google's quarterly profits since going public are pretty impressive!

Ira Winkler
Thinkernetter
Monday August 31, 2009 7:30:51 PM
no ratings

Google has always impressed me in their ability to figure out how to monetize giving things away for free.  While I admit that I dont know their plans here, they do tend to invest heavily in things that they give away for free.  They are very different than most other US companies that look for returns on a quarterly basis.

David Vellante
Thinkernetter
Monday August 31, 2009 7:09:54 PM
no ratings

It's not bad Bobby...I just like to make sure we keep it in mind as a motivating force behind Google's actions.

Bobby Vassallo
Rank: Web master
Monday August 31, 2009 7:05:48 PM
no ratings

They definitely will print money!  That's bad how?  This is an accident waiting to happen.  It will happen because they have too much to gain.  That is understood, isn't it?  bv

David Vellante
Thinkernetter
Monday August 31, 2009 6:37:54 PM
no ratings

This is definitely a grander plan Ira. It's all around keeping the network open and as Michael points out, ensuring open access. Google's behavior around net neutrality initiatives, open device consortia, bidding on C-block spectrum to gain negotiation leverage, proposals around white space, lobbying the feds, etc.

As Google builds out an ecosystem around its software it gets hooks into the access points and increases its position across the network value chain...and then it prints money. 

Do you agree?

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