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Warren Shiau

Tech Vendors Poised for Arms Race in a Cloud

Written by Warren Shiau
11/20/2008 6 comments
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Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) and EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) are just a couple of IT's heavy-hitters that have been talking up cloud infrastructure. Actually, not just talking about it; they’re pouring a lot of money into building it -- as in bricks and mortar, servers, concrete, wiring looms... big honking data centers to provide infrastructure for the cloud.

I really wonder why this whole cloud infrastructure deal isn’t being talked about more, because, as far as I can fathom, it represents a huge shift in the business of tech. EMC, for example, hasn’t been so much about storage boxes as it’s been about storage software for a long time. Telecom switches stopped being about hardware way back when. Microsoft (Xbox and Zune notwithstanding) has always been about software. The last three decades of IT have been about the shift away from hardware power bases to software and, lately, services.

Isn’t the cloud the latest evolution of this shift to software and services? Sure, I buy that. But what fascinates me is how people are going about trying to realize the cloud.

If I build myself big, bad data centers all over the world with the fattest pipes, scariest machines, and Fort Knox security/redundancy, and I happen to have a software platform for building cloud services to go on my infrastructure... well, why shouldn’t everybody want to build to my platform?

So how did data centers get back into all of this? Isn’t software-and-services supposed to be about doing away with the big capital investments of the past? Ah, yes, but someone has to provide the infrastructure. So now we have the fascinating situation where key IT players are getting into becoming major infrastructure providers.

What I’m imagining is all of this exploding into an “arms race.” Think about it like this: In several years time, the world’s largest software company might be just as much about cloud infrastructure “plant and equipment” as it is about software. The world’s largest storage company could be just as much about cloud “plant and equipment” as it is about storage software and hardware. That’s transformational: Let’s say 20 years from now Microsoft is all about property and buildings and equipment!

Realizing the cloud could become just as much about capital investment -- machines and cooling and pipes and towers -- as it is about anything else. Not necessarily because this is the way it has to be; if it happens this way it’ll be because it’s where the players with the money and resources take it. A big old-fashioned dust-up to see who can build more, and build it faster.

Funny how the competition for the cloud could end up being fought on the ground.

— Warren Shiau, Senior Associate, The Strategic Counsel

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GajaKannan
IQ Crew
Saturday November 22, 2008 7:55:15 PM
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I agree with Jerome, that cloud computing is much like a "Platform as a Service" than just a Big Iron.  Sometimes it is a prepackaged OOTB software like CRM, Email and MS-Office alike, sometimes it is just a platform where you build applications on top of it like Windows Azure and Salesforce's Appexchange, sometimes it is a infrastructure capability like Amazon's Elastic cloud.

I disagree with Jerome on the comparison of Google and Microsoft.  Microsoft's cloud offering actually does have same capabilities as Google for prepackaged software like Office, Email and also PaaS.  I think you have confused with MS message on cloud that it supports "Scale Out" option where you can build the capability inhouse to start with and move it to Cloud.  Actually in the past 2 years they have studied the market and approaching Cloud in all the fronts, like OOTB application software, Infrastrucuture and Platform.

{ Gaja; }

http://gajakannan.wordpress.com

Mary Jander
Thinkernetter
Friday November 21, 2008 4:45:14 PM
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I agree that the future of IT hardware vendors depends on their software and services. And what better way to promote both than together -- calling it a trendy name?

Still, it will be interesting to see what if any really new models for products and services come out of EMC and others as a result of this trend.

Warren Shiau
Thinkernetter
Friday November 21, 2008 1:46:15 PM
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Going up a big hill when the clouds are low and standing in the clouds.

Cloud is around you, you can just reach out and "grab" some.

That would be my idea of things.

Anyway, the thing that I find fascinating is how a lot of people (I just used Microsoft and EMC as examples) are getting into a "building" race.  Traditionally you wouldn't think of an IT company outside the equipment manufacturers morphing into situations where there financial statements are (hugely and grotesquely) laden down with buildings and equipment - but I imagine that's where we could end-up.

Something like Microsoft or Oracle or Google, or eBay, etc. deciding they want to become a PTT.

And let's say they're all building-out to that extent; it changes their businesses in a very fundamental way.  Like a race to build themselves into being crowned King of the Railroads.

To me, it's also spooky in a "world paved over with 500 story buildings and no grass" sort of way.

 

 

 

DHagar
Thinkernetter
Friday November 21, 2008 1:26:03 PM
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I agree that the arms race in the cloud can be revolutionary; however, it will depend on the models that are created to truly take advantage of the technical designs and new options it can offer.  If it becomes just another avenue for selling technical products and solutions in another round of competition with the same players, it will fail.  If it unleashes new alignments of services that provide better capabilities and new pricing models that solve business problems, I believe that can lead to a new competitive race for truly revolutionary services.

 As with any change, the breakthroughs in new direction come from the replacement of the old with something we find that works better!  A new design and packaging of services on demand and integrated communication networks hold the promise of new solutions and added value.

DHagar

Jeroen
Researcher
Friday November 21, 2008 11:45:52 AM

I disagree, cloud computing does represent a major shift in how industries will be shaped in the future. Cloud computing offers major advantages in increasing flexibility of computing power, storage or the use of applications. "Pay for what you drink" is essentially the main message. The big players offer huge price advantages over anything small and midsize firms can achieve, and in the future perhaps large multinational companies.

The big players in the industry however, arent tech vendors at the moment. Amazon, Google have big scale advantages over new entrants like microsoft. Google's cloud has been up and running for a while and it is rumored to have more then a whooping 150.000 servers. 

However, I do agree that there are still a lot of security issues that need to be worked out. The bigger question therefore will remain which business model will become the standard?????

Google and Microsoft are going head a head again, where google is aiming for a "pure"  form of cloud computing. Where everything is stored in the cloud, data, applications etc. The only thing you need is to access the cloud through a browser no need for anything else eg. operating system. This is offcourse a huge threath for microsoft who core business has been for the last 20 years operating systems and licencing software. 

Their solution for cloud computing is more of a dual approach, where the user will keep a physical copy of everything that he or she works on in the cloud. This forces users to have a operating system, however it also provides users with additional redundancy / security.

Other security issues will be worked out soon. All players are pooring money into this new business

hbetts3
Thinkernetter
Friday November 21, 2008 9:34:52 AM

Warren,

Thank you for bringing up this topic.  But I would like for you and all our readers to think about this?  How is the cloud computing that is being so highly touted any different from renting MIPS and DASDI from IBM?  I submit that it is not.

This is not new.  It's not even news.  This is the same mentality that existed when mainframes were the only players in town.  "I have invested in this large, expensive piece of equipment of which I am only using 0.1%.  So, to justify my expense I am going to invite people to use my equipment and charge them a rate that will return my total investment and in just 5 years if I can get enough subscribers.  After I have paid for this giant machine, everything else is just gravy"

The only difference between then and now is that any johnny-come-lately can set up a server room using commodity 386's runing Slackware Linux and FOSS software and compete.  Now, they package it as a "Green Initiative"...  (not to disparage the truth behind greening up, but to point out that the Marketing Wonks --yes I called them WONKS have found a way to take a truly noble idea and sully it) .

I spit at the cloud.  The concept is unreliable for Enterprise class businesses and the thought of putting any sensitive data (or transactional data) on a system that is not behind my firewalls under my direct control is sickening. 

So to all the Marketing WONKS in the ether, hear me now... don't come knocking on my door trying to tell me that this is something new.  "There is nothing new under the sun... and this too is vanity"

The ThinkerNet does not reflect the views of TechWeb. The ThinkerNet is an informal means of communication to members and visitors of the Internet Evolution site. Individual authors are chosen by Internet Evolution to blog. Neither Internet Evolution nor TechWeb assume responsibility for comments, claims, or opinions made by authors and ThinkerNet bloggers. They are no substitute for your own research and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose.
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