The Shape of Clouds to Come

You're completely right Mary!

Thaere are still many instances of "big iron" to be found in certain environments and it's true in those environments where would we be without them?  Simulation exercises, genetic mapping, FAA flight control just to name a few.

But I think this is far from the original topic of clouds and cloud computing... I think we went off on a tangent here.

What we're seeing more and more of is smaller business and organizational models, and in part, this is because of the power of compurting moving away from the maiframe model. In the 70s and 80s, server installations were relativly unheard of, and portable computers of the early 80s were like the COMPAQ Suitcase (I have a 286 in the closet still and all the diskettes to run it!)

As things started to downsize, even BIG organizations went away form running all but core operations on a mainframe.  And part of it was based on people wanting "control" of threir own applications, and more to the point, their own data,  But control was really a misnomer- when you asked them what they really meant, the words came out that added up to "convenience", not at all control.  ANd financial models changed, where smaller portions of the organizations were getting budget money to support their own hardware, purchase their own software, proivide their own support.  

And thre next paradigm shift was individual control and support, with limited system support and even fewer mainframe resident core applications.

So who knows, maybe you're right and maybe we are coming full circle and everyone is goiing to be willing to give up the control/convenience of their information and trust it all to the cloud... until the first time access becomes an issue and someone misses a critical deadline.  It's tough to get an SOA/SLA within your own organization, it's tougher to establish a 'contract' for guaranteed service within your own family... and that's really what we're taliking about when everything gets released into a "organizational cloud". 

And a 'public or quasi public' cloud? Well, we've already discussed this.

As I said to begin with I think Big Iron has it's place in society and even within some businesses, but not for running desktop level stuff unless your organization consists of tens of thoiusands of desktops in disparate locations all seeking the same data simultaneously.

Rimman: Come on, mainframes are still alive and kicking! IBM is doing a ton of business in them annually. The technology has many advantages, not least of which is the RACF security system, no?

I know we're all about open systems these days, but I remain skeptical about the death of the mainframe.

That said, I'm not willing to say that mainframe networks are synonymous with cloud computing. Yes, there are parallels. But it seems that cloud computing really does have a new take on a few old models, if only by virtue of being Internet-centric.

Mary-  It depends substantially on who the "we" are when this reference is made.  In my example, I was referring to the private user with their own data, NOT a "Los Alamos" type installation with data that is not intended to be portable to begin with.

Lax security and employees that fail to follow assigned security models which involve trust are bound to fail- people find workarounds.  Of course in that specific case, I seriously doubt we'd see that happen again... but I can't go there.

Mainframes have moved on, essentially to the point of non-existence. I doubt we'll ever see a model again where everything exists in one place and we essentially use terminals to gain access to it.  Not until the virtual environment runs as fast or seamlessly as data and applications on a native device.  

Look at the furor when G-mail was down for a few hours, or what happened in teh SF Bay Area when a fiber optic cable was cut and cell sites, ISPs, 911, land lines, alarm systems, etc went down for up to 72 hours in some cases.

I apologize if my example of multiple hard drives, one at home and one on the road to avoid loss of access was unclear- it was related strictly to PERSONAL and PERSONAL BUSINESS data, NOT to organizational (and certainly not sensitive) data.

Rimman, you point out that having portable data improves performance. It also seems that in some organizations, it's easier to control and supervise data if it's not in the data center, on the mainframe.

Otherwise, why would "we have multiple copies of our data and carry one with us because we don't want data left behind or lagging while we wait to access it"?

Doesn't this lead to the kinds of problems that Los Alamos Labs in the U.S. experienced, in which portable data results in uncontrollable compromises?

Mainframes have moved on along with everything else. Can't we assume those environments have improved too? Maybe it's time to look at that model again after all.

You bet that makes it different!  'Back in the Day", we had 640mb twin 5-1/4" drive PCs on a limited number of desktops where you had to swap disks to load a progranm and have 3rd disk poised to save files on!

The paradigm shifted substantially, but I think a key part of the discussion here (and in another active thread) is the difference between private (behind the firewall) and publicly accessible clouds, and the hybrid "pay to play" semi-private clouds.

The greatest risk (to data) naturally is in the semi-private and publicly accessible clouds... and the greatest benefits to organizations of one and small startups are to be found there as well- lower investment required in hardware, storage, even application cost in many cases... so in each scenario, you have to weigh the risks against the benefits.

My personal opinion, and we all have AT LEAST one of those (and many know the quote about opinions) is that if you are maanging the data of a client, you should think long and hard about putting it ina  publicly accessible or semi-private cloud, unless you've openly explained to the client that's where it will be and absolved yourself or any responsibility/liability through contractual language.

My perspective on this is much different than many others here on IE- I'm a records and information management professional, so I don't get caught up in the glitz factors of technology. I see it as a tool to assist in achieving goals.  I'm more about controilling access and ensuring availability of information... and I've ridden out a number of infomation related disaster scenarios in my 27 years.

You're absolutely right. One of the things that is different in this cycle is that cloud computing tends to be identified with some degree of self-service--which is, of course, startkly different from the old days.

Yes, we did do it before, but the main criticism was access to resources and ability to change the mainframe.   So, a department within a business begs and begs for "IT" to build them a database...eventually, they get a budget and install a workgroup application (remember dbase III !) for their own needs.

So, the path away from the mainframe was not just hardware architecture, but access to installing and managing your own data.   Today, software is more and more downloaded from the Internet or simply there already!

Case in point, I am helping my brother build a site for a concept he developed to help people perfect their phone interviewing skills for job seekers, named Phone Interview Pro, http://www.phoneinterviewpro.com .   

It's hosted on the Register.com "cloud" which, for a tiny monthly fee, gives us php capability, lots of built in in php addons (for emails, etc) and the ability to create and manage multiple mySQL databases...all though a web interface!    Working with this suite of software has been fantastic....and space is alloted in the gigabytes so...more than enough for backups, etc.    

Yes, safety risks are high in the cloud, but also ownership risks.   In my case, a single expressed thought on a forum in Google Groups got me kicked out of the whole thing...including a Group I founded and which I had uploaded some critical data...which, after years of trying, I have not been able to access!

So then we have the Unicloud where, everything goes on to some common server...but then there is also the Multicloud, where your business runs its own cloud, using the cloud architecture, but within the bricks and mortar of your business.    That, in fact, could be much safer than lots of employees with critical spreadsheets and PDF files laying around on workstations!

Because most of us that did it then moved so far away from it, they think we've forgotten, or we're off in a shack in Montana, or we're all senile now =)

Little did they know "They Walk Amongst Us"

You're right... those of us that worked in VMS and CMS mode DO REMEMBER... and the battle cry is "NEVER AGAIN!!"

We are why laptops have multiple ports and 500gb passport drives are 3x5x0.5 and weigh a few ounces... we have multiple copies of our data and carry one with us because we don't want data left behind or lagging while we wait to access it

This cloud thing ain't nothing new it's simply rebranded

The more I read about cloud computing, the more it sounds to me like a mainframe in the distance, and dumb terminals on folks' desks. It didn't work before because of latency (among other things). I wonder why we think it'll work now?