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Todd Watson

The Vindication of Nate Silver

Written by Todd Watson
11/8/2012 1 comment
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I was all set to write a closer examination of statistician and blogger Nate Silver's most recent election predictions. During the ramp-up to the election, he was lambasted by a garden variety of mostly conservative voices for either being politically biased, or establishing his predictions on a loose set of statistical shingles.

Only to be informed that one of my esteemed colleagues, David Pittman, had already written such a compendium post. So hey, why reinvent the big-data prediction wheel?

Here's a link to David's fine post, which I encourage you to check out if you want to get a sense of how electoral predictions provide an excellent object lesson for the state of big-data analysis. (David's post also includes the on-camera interview that Scott Laningham and I conducted with Nate Silver just prior to his excellent keynote before the gathered IBM Information On Demand 2012 crowd.)

I'm also incorporating a handful of other stories I have run across that I think do a good job of helping people better understand the inflection point for data-driven forecasting that Silver's recent endeavor represents, along with its broader impact in media and punditry.

They are as follows:

"Nate Silver's Big Data Lessons for the Enterprise"

"What Nate Silver's success says about the 4th and 5th estates"

"Election 2012: Has Nate Silver destroyed punditry?"

"Nate Silver After the Election: The Verdict"

As a Forbes reporter wrote in his own post about Silver's predictions, "the modelers are here to stay."

Moving forward, I expect we'll inevitably see an increased capability for organizations everywhere to adopt Silver's methodical, Bayesian analytical strategies... and well beyond the political realm.

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Kim Davis
Thinkernetter
Friday November 9, 2012 11:22:29 AM
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Nate not only gets the stats right, he handles business smartly too.  If what I've read is correct, he still owns the 538 "brand," so he's in effect parking his own operation at the Times - for now.  If so, he's in a beautiful position to negotiate the next four years, either with the Times or with other organizations.

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