When it comes to money, experts on the future seem to be out of sync with the way things will likely evolve. And that could be a very good thing for the Internet.
Currently, no matter how you cut it, the problems of online fraud and spam are about money. In the fictional 23rd century world of Star Trek, the society no longer uses money. This seems to be an obvious long-range solution to the problems facing the Internet; but is it workable in the real world?
What’s more, Greco has acknowledged that such currencies are actually more prone to fraud and counterfeiting than are traditional currencies.
In a similar vein, ICANN CEO Paul Twomey talks about virtual worlds
as the future of commerce, then goes on to describe scenarios that would be a fraudster's paradise. Nothing at all is said about how virtual reality could actually make transactions more secure.
The are just two examples of how experts may have it wrong.
The problems of online fraud and spam are so enormous that it is impossible that their prevention will not be a major driver in future technological progress and changes in society. No way can the futurists be right in assuming we will actually create even greater vulnerabilities than we have now.
Mankind is not that stupid.
We need to think beyond the futurists to what will actually occur as mankind wrestles with these major challenges... and wins!
What is written about the future of money is still based on the money of today. But Vint Cerf points out that innovation and invention are occurring so quickly that probably 99 percent of the applications that will eventually be on the Internet have not been invented yet.
Some of these important future inventions will likely have to do with the elimination of money from the Internet and from our society.
I visited Auroville in January 2004 and was entranced by the life there and the beauty of the Matrimandir dome (click here for a virtual tour) and the meditation chamber with its giant crystal.
Auroville is not operating completely without money. The city’s FAQ describes the situation:
Our currency in AUROVILLE is called the AURO. One AURO is equal to one minute of skilled work. 1 hour = 60 Auros. This is purely to give it a base for reference and everyone is left to decide upon the value of what they are exchanging at the time of the transaction and how skilled exactly is their work and its value. An equivalence for goods and services is to be calculated by the provider and a good rule of thumb is also to simply equate 1 Auro with 1 rupee.
Life in Auroville is not ideal yet: A brutal murder recently occurred in the community.
Still, it is an interesting and informative start, and it should get us thinking about the real future of human society and the Internet on which we increasingly depend.
— Kim Solez, MD, Director of NKF cyberNephrology at the University of Alberta
The CNN post this morning about the use of bank gift cards to move large amounts of money across borders gives another hint what future technology will make possible in human commerce. Hard to imagine what compensation systems and ways of exchanging/obtaining things will be like in ten years!
"In this way, there is no inflation or deflation, because the shares fluctuate with the real value of businesses, not the artificial value of currency."
The moment the business issued more shares you would have inflation (though it may take a little while to show).
More importantly, how would you calculate the value of the shares? In what unit of measurement? You said yourself that money allows one to compare apples to oranges - but how do you compare shares in GM with shares in Intel, if not using money?
For that matter, why would GM shares be worth anything to you if you already had a car and money was not involved? Sure, you could swap your shares for some other shares, products or services but what are your shares worth? You come back to the same thing, the need for a universal unit of exchange.
That's the spirit! Yes it is fun to think about how it might work, what the new paradigm eventually might look like. We are talking quite a few years into the future, so no need to put the brakes on our imaginations! Full speed ahead!
Why does "fine tuning exchange" need to be a challenge when that is exactly what money was designed for? Bear in mind money has tended to erupt via market forces, not government fiat.
Enter a prison for example, with no money and soon you'll find cigarettes or some other "most exchangable commodity" taking the place of money. Same as before, which is more valuable, a bar of soap or a toothbrush? Well if a bar of soap costs 10 cigarettes and a toothbrush only 6, you know the answer.
Pack of playing cards? 22 cigarettes. Ah, but one of the Jacks is missing. Mmm. Make me an offer? The point you agree to buy and I agree to sell is the price.
There's nothing inherently wrong, or evil or somehow bad about money, prices or indeed profit.
Advocating a world without money is like suggesting a world without talking. Why talk when we can, like, type or something? txt msg? Ultimately you're doing the same thing, communicating. Price is simply communication, I'll swap this toothbrush for those socks, via the most exchangable brand of cigarettes...
You cannot print or digitally create wealth, you merely steal the VALUE of other people's money. So no, there is nothing that can replace money that in some way would make us better off. Please don't go down that route.
Sure, we could have software that could, for example, quantify your input into society and credit you X amount of spending points or something. However that IS money, so software cannot really improve anything beyond making it easier to buy and sell, ie easier to barter, swap, exchange or whichever term you prefer, it's the same thing.
Essentially the idea of a world, or internet, without money is a solution looking for a problem.
The only other kind of option is one that takes "spending" decisions away from the individual. As I said, That. Does. Not. Work.
Ah, I just looked at your 'singularity' link. Women leaders eh? You know, it's out of print now but I actually wrote a book about communism, the Frankfurt School and how no, the history was wrong and pure misguided optimism. There never has been a time of great peace, wisdom and woman-rule. It's a fairystory that never happened.
Yes, at the time some historians believed it. I know, it was the basis of so much but seriously, it was wrong, false. Never happened. Either you're very misguided or you know EXACTLY what I'm talking about. I'll just repeat:
Yes, it does seem like most of us are moving into the Next Generation, while some still prowl the net looking for profitttzzzz.
Money is an information system. It lets us map one good or service to another. It provides fungibility -- the ability to estimate how many oranges are the same as how many apples.
Do we need money? Right now I can buy fractions of stock shares on Sharebuilder. So, I can buy 4.25 shares of IBM. Well, if I can do that, then I could in theory, pay you in IBM shares instead of money. I could say, I want to buy your bicycle for 3.59 shares of IBM.
In this way, there is no inflation or deflation, because the shares fluctuate with the real value of businesses, not the artificial value of currency.
And using Web 2.0 you can put together any number of bartering systems that let you trade real goods and services for other goods and services.
Fine tuning exchange without money in the future is one of the challenges, but a solvable one. We are not limited to only what exists today. As Vint Cerf says a lot of the resources that will exist are yet to be invented; lets think of what some of the capabilities of that yet to be created software might be and how it could help with this!
As SteveGNYC says I don't think we are talking about an existing paradigm, a piece of the past, we are talking about a new configuration. Fun to think about what it might look like. It is unlikely to be anything like systems we know now. And it can be divorced from political rhetoric.
Talking about the future is not for everyone, Jungletrekker. You may have disliked the Singularity blog, it may have seemed nonsensical to you.
But this site is about Internet evolution, including long term evolution, and there is always the possibility that if we talk about the future evolution with enough insight and passion, we can actually help shape it in a positive way.
There is a big difference between fighting fraud and going down the "money is evil" route; please don't confuse the two.
Money (buying) and barter are exactly the same thing, the only difference is that you previously bartered in exchange for "money" before then bartering or exchanging that money for what you actually wanted. As such money is simply the easiest and most exchangable commodity, nothing else.
The really big problem we face is that of government-backed "fractional reserve banking", led by "Central banks", which basically means lending money that doesn't exist, then creating it out of thin air. It's the root of all "inflation".
Yes, most central banks claim to "fight" inflation. They're lying.
As long as there is scarcity in the world (including scarcity of time) there will always be a need for money and trade. Arguably the most crucial feature of money is pricing.
Without price you cannot calculate. You're blind. How many toothbrushes is a computer worth? Without pricing you simply don't know, all you know is that a computer is "worth more" than a toothbrush. How much more?
Prices will tell you, down to two decimal points, exactly how much more. Lose the ability to price and you lose the ability to allocate scarce resources. Only in a world of absolutely no scarcity, where everything and anything is instantly available, could you lose that basic unit of exchange and calculation.
Without it you'd suffer the same, or worse, than every other experiment with communism. It. Does. Not. Work. Give it up already, please.
I think we'll find a "new" way of bartering that isn't quite so "negative" and in so doing really re-discover the social aspect of our connection to people, places, and things.
My head is perking with the possibilities. Thanks again for the provoking thoughts and insights.
Thanks for this. Predicting the future is a bit like playing chess. How many moves ahead and counter moves can you conceptualize?
Yes there are many unhealthy futures without money one can think of. In science fiction one can think of The Matrix. One did not have to pay to be plugged into the matrix, the system provided for that and life support. Presumably you only thought you were spending money on things you liked, you were not in reality. Probably money did not "really" exist.
But probably that unhealthy reality of The Matrix is no more likely than the healthy one of Star Trek where people are motivated by curiosity and the need to explore and accumulate knowledge in an altruistic way.
But what about the ordinary people who are not particularly curious or altruistic and not big picture thinkers? What do they do in such a world and would it not require money?
In a future world where robots could do most ordinary things better than humans, ordinary humans without special skills are likely to have the job of consuming and reacting to entertainment and AI experiences. One can imagine that these activities fit in well with society's functioning but since they are not really necessary could be compensated by simply providing the necessities of life, which might be present in abundance.
One could imagine a way it could all work without money.
Or maybe not!
One primary concern is theft. If I stole one of your two cows it would be similar to withdrawing half of your bank account in an online fraud transaction. No system will be perfect, but some are safer than others.
I think we will discover new forms of economy on the Internet that do not fit neatly into the traditional categories of market, barter, and gift economies. When one reads a description of "dumb barter" economy or silent trade it at first seems very surprising and strange:
In small-scale societies, barter is generally used in exchanges with people from other friendly communities. When the communities are frightened of or hostile towards each other but still wish to trade, dumb-barter may occur. This is barter without direct contact between the traders. Individuals from one group leave trade goods at a neutral location usually on the edge of their territory and then leave. Sometime later, members of the other community pick up the goods and leave something in exchange. The first group then returns and either picks up the things that were left by the strangers or leaves them until additions or substitutions are made that are acceptable. In the past, dumb-barter of this sort occurred in parts of West Africa, Northern Scandinavia, India, Sri Lanka, Sumatra, Timor, New Guinea, and the Amazon Basin of South America. Dumb-barter is also known as silent trade and depot trade.
However it is likely that the economic system we arrive at on the Internet will be equally surprising and strange, and yet will eventually work much better than what we have now.
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