Now that we’ve closed the book on the first decade of the 21st century, the real question is, What radically new Internet technologies will we be celebrating at the beginning of the century’s second decade?
Ironically, imagining 2020 is really the business of the historian rather than the futurist. As David Edgerton argues in his brilliant 2006 book, The Shock of the Old: Technology and Global History Since 1900, the most radical new technologies are recycled from the past. To look forward, therefore, Edgerton suggests that we look backwards.
Edgerton is, of course, right about the “new” technologies driving the latest Internet software and hardware hits. After all, who in 2000 could ever have imagined that the two biggest technology stories in early 2010 would be an imminent touchpad personal computer from Apple (the Newton 2.0) and the continued viral success of an instant message network of short text (Twitter)?
So, to determine what old technology will appear most shockingly new in 10 years time, let me polish off my crystal ball and look backwards into the future.
Back in 2002, I was general manager of a Santa Cruz startup called VidiTel -- an online, real-time video network investment of the venture capital firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson (DFJ). Back then, we were the ugly sister of the other DFJ investment in real-time networked communications, Skype.
I won’t bore you with the sad fate of VidiTel, but what I will speculate is that by 2020, real-time community video -- either online or via mobile networks -- will have reached its Gladwellian tipping point. By 2020, social networking and mobile telephony will be increasingly video-based. By 2020, voice will be dying. In 2020, the future will be seen rather than heard.
Back in 2001, I was VP of business development at Pulse3D, a Softbank investment seeking to build an online platform for 3D technology -- another expensive failure of a nice-to-have technology vainly seeking a need-to-have market. But like real-time video, 3D is the future of the Internet. The movie industry has now “discovered” 3D as its value-add in-theater savior. Virtual worlds and online gaming networks are pioneering more and more “realistic” versions of immersive online environments. By 2020, we’ll all be living in 3D worlds. I can almost touch it now.
Back in January 2000, on the very brink of the 21st century, I was frantically trying to save my 90s startup, Audiocafe.com -- a curated network of music reviews and downloads -- from bankruptcy. I failed, of course, and Audiocafe is now long gone. But all the business problems that Audiocafe.com was trying to solve -- monetizing professional online content, rewarding creativity, protecting intellectual property -- are even more pressing today than they were 10 years ago. By 2020, I hope (and pray) that somebody somewhere solves the problem of building a viable business model for online content. With promising new online businesses like Hulu, Spotify, and GlobalNews, we are halfway there. By 2020 hopefully, there no longer will be a distinction between old and new media.
So there we have it, my 2020 vision. To summarize: My three predictions are the hegemony of video, the ubiquity of 3D, and the viability of online media.
Nothing new here, I’m afraid. Time now, I suppose, to think about what old technologies will be hot in 2030.
— Andrew Keen, Silicon Valley author, broadcaster, and entrepreneur, can be reached on Twitter at @ajkeen.
Mike, I agree with all of your key points. I think we are in for significant structural changes, with fibre optics, and a wide expansion of the video media, with wireless playing a significant role in the devices and connectivity we choose.
I also believe you have hit the nail on the head, as Mike mentions in his article, that the key driver will be new and more effective business models that will drive this forward and make it a commercial success.
Magnet, I really think the "writing is on the wall" as it were,-- fiber optics will continue to trump satelite and obviously coax cable as backbone transports
wireless will trump DSL as the last leg of the link. as coax cable goes away we will see fiber in its place with the last 100m being wireless*
at your home you tear out the coax they hung and in its place they connect a wireless modem -- on very much the same pattern that you see for the 230vac service transformers used by the power company... where several homes are grouped together one modem might serve several customers
the fiber will need to be de-regulated so that you have your choice of service providers. MCI pioneered this on POTS and we need to extend the concept to digital communications
the concept of Digital Communication Service will emerge providing TV, Internet, VOIP, cell-phone, "kindle"
the business model in all of this is going to change more than the technology
I guess we'll need a lot of time (for people to get used to such innovations) and bandwidth (I can only imagine how much my DSL will suffer from those 3D stuff) to make these predictions viable. They have their uses, but they also have their time.
I liked the point by Churchill, he is one of my most admired persons. Nice to know that his teachings and observations are well taken into consideration.
Yes, he looked for a most part of his life to the past being one of the most accomplished historians of his generation. But he also used his accumulated knowledge to look to the future and make informed decisions based on human and social conduct.
He also insightfully observed the present. That's why he was adamant against Hitler since his initial steps.
While I must admit that I have never heard of David Edgerton or his brilliant book of 2006. However, I am familiar with the concept of looking back to see the future. Winston Churchill said "The farther back into the past you look. The farther into the future you will see." But rather than prognosticate on the future of technology by looking into the past failures of technology. I prefer the vehicle of SCI-FI. to predict with. Coincidently, the StarWars saga has all the same predictions that you espouse. From the Vid screens to the 3D image communications. And the empire inforcing the incorporation of tech-advancement. Not to mention Human Hybridization and robotic medical diagnostics. And it never makes silly predictions of beaming anything in a physical state through space-time. Projection of images not transportation of beings.
Car? what's a car? Oh yes, they are so old technology, analog transportation. I mean -- here we are in the land of "beam me up scotty" Oh but I do like that hit by a bus and Roomba (perhaps we can call this Zoombah?)
Bring on the power laces, bring on the flux capacitors, bring on vehicles using banana peels and coffee grounds for fuel source. I mean, although it took years to invent and though some try to re-invent it all the time, the wheel is for squares, man!
And I think it will be the boomers, now in retirement comfortably having captured the last upsurge of the DOW, they'll be wearing the pants inside out, spikey skull caps, and getting all zoned out on excessive alpha rays.
The future does look interesting, if not bright - stay tuned, it will be here sooner than we may like!
PS- I think microsoft will own EVERYTHING by this point.
Of course we don't have flying cars! Didn't you see Back to the Future part II? It took place in the fall of 2015! We're half a decade away. ;-)
Flying cars I doubt will ever come, or if they surprise me and do end up here, they won't be flying around in the same capacity as the aforementioned movie showed them to be. Look at the inherent problems with traffic on roads. In the sky it would be an absolute disaster.
Hoverboards (keep it, I've got a pitbull now!) and auto-fitting and auto-drying jackets seem more plausible. Though as a kid I dreamed of having a pair of those funky Nike shoes. As Marty McFly stated; "power laces. Right on!".
Will all kids of the future really wear their pants inside out? Metal spiky skull caps? If my nephew does, I'll be in awe.
The flying car prediction was the failure... The robotics community is growing and is wildly successful. iRobot has sold over 5 million Roombas! Look at all the robot pet hamsters sold over the holidays! :)
I'm surprised that we are not arguing about where the robotics community has failed. As a kid I was so looking forward to a flying car or a robot to do my chores.
Now I have a Mini, which will fly when a bus hits it and a Roomba. Whooo hooo.
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