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Andrew Keen

Did I Just See Eric Schmidt Blink?

Written by Andrew Keen
3/6/2009 39 comments
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Did I just see Eric Schmidt blink? I suspect that the Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) CEO -- who has successfully stared down Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), the European Union, and the U.S. government since he took over the company in 2001 -- is nervous. The cause of his newfound angst? Twitter, of course, the real-time short-messaging network that is, in real time, revolutionizing the same Internet that Google began to revolutionize 10 years ago.

It happened earlier this week in San Francisco, at the Morgan Stanley Technology conference, when Schmidt was asked a question about Twitter’s usefulness. Here’s how he answered:

    Speaking as a computer scientist, I view all of these as sort of poor man's email systems. In other words, they have aspects of an email system, but they don't have a full offering. To me, the question about companies like Twitter is: Do they fundamentally evolve as sort of a note phenomenon, or do they fundamentally evolve to have storage, revocation, identity, and all the other aspects that traditional email systems have? Or do email systems themselves broaden what they do to take on some of that characteristic?

Yes, he blinked. Google has had a remarkable run. For 10 years now, search has dominated the technology conversation. But what Schmidt’s strained, geeky answer reveals is that the next big thing in Silicon Valley -- and thus the real threat to Google -- will be, in his words, “poor man’s email.”

In 1993, email changed my life by enabling me to instantaneously communicate with people all over the world. Back then, however, electronic mail was just that -- a digital version of traditional, private one-to-one mail. In the 15 years since then, email has remained relatively unchanged as a core piece of the Internet’s communications architecture. At the same time, the social media revolution exploded, first with Google’s crowdsourced search engine and then with social or knowledge networks like YouTube Inc. , Wikipedia, and Facebook (Nasdaq: FB).

Twitter is a huge hit because it represents the synthesis of both Web 1.0 email and the Web 2.0 social media revolutions. It is many-to-many email in which users share most of their correspondence with others on their network.

Just as Web 2.0 user-generated content revolutionized media, so Twitter is revolutionizing both the culture and economics of electronic communications. It makes what Schmidt calls “note phenomenon” the engine of a new personalized communications system. Twitter replaces email with, so to speak, tmail.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve begun to shift my mode of Internet communications from email to tmail. Yes, of course, email isn’t dead and I still use it for important personal and business correspondence that I want to keep private. But tmail has become my preferred mode of communications with the world because it is quicker, easier, and more fun.

Most importantly, Twitter has transformed email into a viral tool for business development. So most of my tmail is designed to acquire a following and readership, build my personal brand, and establish new commercial relationships.

But how does tmail, Schmidt’s “poor man’s email” (boy, that remark is going to come back to haunt him), threaten Google? The problem for Google is that Twitter could emerge as a rival network to the Internet. As Twitter goes from its current 6 million users to 60 million and even eventually to 600 million, it will begin to compete with the Internet as an informational ecosystem. Not only might this be a real-time and self-correcting informational resource, a Wikipedia on steroids, but Twitter -- which acquired the Summize search engine last summer -- will also have the capacity to become an all-knowing search engine of its users’ knowledge.

Eric Schmidt, of course, knows all this. That’s why he publicly blinked at the Twitter question earlier this week. He understands that the real threat to Google will come not from another search engine or social network or email service, but from a new product that synthesizes all these technologies into something both intimately familiar and brand new.

Twitter is the simplest and most intuitive product to emerge since Google. If it is indeed a poor man’s email, then we are all poor men now in a revolutionary new era of tmail.

— Andrew Keen, Silicon Valley author, broadcaster, and entrepreneur, can be reached on Twitter at @ajkeen.

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jwallace
IQ Crew
Thursday March 12, 2009 11:40:57 AM
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I've yet to emerge fully into twitter, however via facebook's status update (which I'm assuming is somewhat similar) I was able to quickly (within 10 minutes) aggregate some buddies to play Call of Dudy World at War at 11:45 pm. 

It seems safe to say search engines and microblogging are very similar with the latter having presence in the social web.

Mr. Roques
Researcher
Tuesday March 10, 2009 9:36:15 PM
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I'm not going to argue about whether Twitter is a great idea, great technology, great business but one thing is that Google knows about it and they think it's a little more than an poor man's email.

Schmidt pretended to blink, but I'm sure they are more worried than that. Maybe buying them is part of their plan and reducing their value by devaluating it.

Mashka
Researcher
Tuesday March 10, 2009 2:29:09 AM
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If Erick Schmidt blinks, then blinks one more time, then he screws up his eyes and then Google will buy Twister..or develop similar service inside Google Empire?
DHagar
Thinkernetter
Monday March 9, 2009 4:50:06 PM
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Very true!

DHagar

nasimson
Thinkernetter
Sunday March 8, 2009 7:56:16 AM
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Twitter is a good phenomenon. Agreed. Twitter has got following of a few millions. Agreed. Twitter has got the followers addicted to tweets. Agreed.

But Twitter can not fly on its own. It needs integration to the main stream internet- Community (Facebook), Search (Google), Virtual Life (Second Life) & Semantic Web so as to reach the critical mass. It need to become a feature (of a larger application) instead of an application (in itself).

GajaKannan
IQ Crew
Sunday March 8, 2009 5:04:30 AM
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Serious competitor to Google is facebook.  I increasingly spend more time on social networks than search engines and am more engaged in the advertisements appear in social networks "that actually knows my behavior not just keywords" rather than keywords based advertisement in search engines.  My eyes are immune to advertisements in googles, msns and yahoos...  facebook, so far i am clicking one or two here and there...

Twitter, could go more in hand with facebook or myspace than gmail or search engine.  Twitter is again based on the following and a network.  Increasingly facebooks, linkedins and myspace are adding that functionality and at some point the critical mass will force us to migrate our users to a full fledged social networking website rather than tweets...

{ Gaja; }

Paul Whyte
Researcher
Saturday March 7, 2009 8:38:50 AM
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Hey J DAmbrosio,

Here are the thoughts of some suppose technology "experts" according to your definition that are branding Tweeter the killer of not only Google but also Facebook:

What the Heck Is Twitter?It's not a Google killer, and it's not a Facebook killer.

Well, this just blows my mind beyond imagination!!!  

 

Paul Whyte
Researcher
Saturday March 7, 2009 1:04:08 AM
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Have you heard of Tweeter making its way into Federal courtrooms??

Twitter boosts public access to federal courtrooms

As you rightly pointed out in a previous comments, it seems Tweeter is having a far more cultural impact that meet the eye!!

 

Andrew Keen
Thinkernetter
Friday March 6, 2009 9:51:35 PM
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that's the point of my piece. It's innovative use of pre-existing technology constructed in a novel way. Very clever.
DHagar
Thinkernetter
Friday March 6, 2009 8:26:47 PM
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Well that is correct, but is it really new technology or is it just another adaptation of existing technology?

DHagar

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