Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) has been on top in the browser market forever. Much of this is as a result of the fact that Internet Explorer comes with Microsoft's OS. But Microsoft has a problem.
In the last six months, Microsoft’s share of the browser market has slipped significantly. In fact, when you look at the last six months of 2008, during which time its share was increasing, the recent downfall is even more dramatic. It's gone from an expanding platform to one that is losing share.
Source: StatCounter Stats are based on aggregate data collected by StatCounter on a sample exceeding 4 billion pageviews per month, collected from across the StatCounter network of more than 3 million Websites. Stats are updated and made available every 4 hours but are subject to quality assurance testing and revision for 7 days from publication.
What can be learned from the eventual demise of Internet Explorer?
There, I said it. There will come a day when Internet Explorer (IE) is grouped into that "other" category because so few people are using it. Why?
First of all, regardless of industry, when you are No. 1 you are a target. IE is no exception. Remember Sears? It was the retail giant, now it’s Walmart; and eventually Walmart will be replaced as well. In fact, it's already showing less profit per store, so the signs are there.
Remember GM? Its place as the dominant auto manufacturer has declined to the point that if you are a U.S. citizen, you now own a part of the company -- congratulations!
Regardless of industry, when you are No. 1, all your warts and weakness are exposed, and business models can be built to exploit those weaknesses. Initially, the new business peacefully coexists, then eventually it takes over. For a long time, Walmart was the place to go get stuff cheap and Sears was the place for quality goods and services. Now Walmart is the place to go to get just about everything cheap.
Of course, Walmart was not the sole reason for Sears's undoing, any more than Firefox is the reason for Internet Explorer's. Sears also had the problem that it was under attack from all sides -- discount appliance centers, discount stereo centers, discount lawn and garden centers, and high-end boutique stores.
Attacking Microsoft IE at its core are Firefox, Safari, Chrome, Opera, and a host of others. People don't use Microsoft's OS as their sole point of browsing anymore.
Another threat is that sales of Linux, thanks to netbooks, are on the increase. Admittedly, most netbooks today are Windows-based, but the fact that there is a measurable percentage that are not, hurts Microsoft. Further, if Google's new OS is going to be successful, it will likely be in netbooks, and I am pretty sure that particular OS won't ship with IE. Finally, there is the growth in the Mac OS platform to consider.
Most importantly, though, there is growth in the mobile browser market, where, for all intents and purposes, Microsoft is a fringe player. The following graph shows that among mobile phone browsers, iPhone, iTouch (same browser), and BlackBerry dominate this space. IE Mobile is almost non-existent.
Source: StatCounter
It is tough for a technology to stay at No. 1. The fact that Microsoft has done so for so long deserves some recognition.
In software, there are hardly any barriers to entry, from a logistics standpoint. A smart, creative person with a compiler and a laptop can be building the next great browser as we speak. And they don't even need to invent the whole thing from scratch, thanks to all the open-source code examples that are out there. Even the distribution is built in.
The upshot: This may be the last decade in which we see a dominant Web browser, office suite, or email client. With the ability to exchange data across products, users will deploy a variety of tools.
The exception may be software that is tied more to the infrastructure -- data center operating systems, virtualization platforms, business databases, and email services, for example. Applications like these are harder to replace and, as a result, may be on more solid ground.
Microsoft may do well to focus on this data center market, because everything else will be hard to defend.
"Internet Explorer 6 isn't exactly dead yet, and in fact remains widely used. But in recent years, it's been eclipsed by newer, faster browsers that are better equipped to run the Web's latest bells and whistles. Google Docs and Google Sites discontinued support for the browser Monday, and YouTube will follow suit March 13".
Prices... I'm in a developing country, and just Windows+Office costs as much as an ordinary employee's take home pay for a month. That's why I like the open source business model. The big guys who can afford it are the ones who support the project (through donations or buying enterprise support) and we poor people get to still use the stuff for free. It's just that open source projects need to really mature first (like Wordpress) to make that model run.
I also work for a university (not-for-profit), and here, our Microsoft licenses (servers, OS, Office) cost us both arms and legs. We've stuck with WinXP and Office 2003 just to keep costs down, but what we pay Microsoft yearly is still heinous.
RE: Prices: To me, it's all how you look at it. If you get an "Upgrade OS" it isn't bad, but yea, Vista Ultimate is pricey - yes (and look what 'ya got for your money!). But, WHO told MS users to Upgrade? WASN'T me! XP was/is VERY affordable, still supported ('til 2014), still a great OS etc.; hell I even use Windows 2000 on a few older/slower machines as you can get current versions of Adobe Reader/Flash/AV etc on WIN2K too (yer stuck with IE6 though, but FF works great on WIN2K). I look at it this way...if you pay for software (any software), you're supporting workers and a companies that contribute (tax base) to society. Isn't that a good thing?Are all the lefty/socialist/Open Sourcerers/IntEvol'ers listening out there (not including you Mag! ;-)? Then why all the MS HATRED? Are they REALLY that bad? Are they REALLY killing you!? I don't hate MAC or Linux, it's all so confusing to me (ah, ppl are eFFed). Sure MS does the corporate walk, stalk, prey & kill like all other good (in a business sense) companies, but that's just business. I guess I have an even different view on MS because of a lot of the software I use comes free to me to use with my Job (I.T. Support). Add in I actually KNOW what I'm doing and do not see all these issues as purported by all these MS haters! I don't use hacked/open/illegitimate software, I do smart computing, best practices etc...but all this does just DOESN'T contribute to the malware/BotNet/SPAM problems.
RE: Diff b/w Windows & Office! Ha ha ha - I hear ya, I luv the calls, THEM: "well my Internet Express isn't working?" ME: Internet Express...HUH?! ME: What version of Windows do you have ma'am? THEM: "97, I think." ME: ROFLMAO! ME: What type of PC do you have? THEM: Ah...ViewSonic. ME: Ah sheeez, that's the monitor sir, look UNDER the desk!
What ppl don't see in all this OS & browser market share stuff is how ignorant and/or lazy a lot of end users can be - a lot of these folks don't even KNOW about FireFox! Geez I cannot begin to tell you how many machines I have had to actually "hold their hands" & set up the Tabbed browsing in IE7 & 8 (or FF for that matter!), simply because ppl just do not take the time to read, follow directions, AND DO IT! When I do that they go, oh wow...thats nice! But No they play helpless - "Oh, oh Tabbed Browsing! Rocket Science! Oh my oh..help me help Mr. IT Wizard Know-it-all dude" (Gimme a break!).
I hate to say it but I agree. I hate Microsoft's prices, their unadaptive culture and their plain lack of creativity, but I don't think anyone can say that IE's been toppled. Nor can we say that a downtrend now makes its demise inevitable. Ok, enough hatred, but let's get real: with the number of competitors existing in the market right now, consumers will dictate where the market goes. And most consumers (i.e. non-techies), whether we like it or not, don't know the slightest difference between IE and other browsers. A good number of them don't even know how to download and install. I'd even bet that a substantial percentage of Internet users don't know what a browser (as a category) is--they just know Internet Explorer. Heck, I know more people who can't differentiate between Windows and Office (they're just all Microsoft) than those who can.
I suppose what this means is that IE will remain dominant untill the time that majority of Internet users are more sophisticated and IE lags way behind other browsers in terms of quality. Without these two together, I think IE will remain on its throne.
Kinda funny to see this post, Tom’s post, Terry’s post and Mary’s comment there out in IntEvol all at once (what…didja all get together last night and do the war dance around the “MS MUST DIE” bonfire ‘er what? Ha ha ha).
RE: “What can be learned from the eventual demise of Internet Explorer?”Why don’t ya tell us what ‘ya REALLY think about MS George? I think you’re assuming a lot here. RE: Internet Explorer “Toppled”…ah…toppled as in ??? Per Merriam-Webster, “toppled” means defeated. That’s FAR from the case, but when ‘yer # 1 (IE browser) for so long, all you can really do is go down (or stay #1) from there. Interesting blog post by another MS hater (ha ha) Jart Armin on what MS actually did RIGHT with IE8.
All browsers are subject to tampering and security issues. Safari? Joke (Foiget-aboud-it) ! Opera…ain’t too bad (even seems to scroll OK now with Alps laptop touchpads); Chrome Browser…eh, ain’t bad (Chrome even seems to scroll OK now with Alps laptop touchpads). FireFox - well, Open Source ppl, programmers, FANS (and beatniks) will obviously choose an Open Source browser, that doesn’t make it “better” than IE7 or 8. FF has their share of issues, especially with their increased market share over the years; buggier browser but issues seemed to get addressed sooner, and recently had to scramble to fix their new v3.5 to v3.5.1 , what does all this mean? Yawn.
All the MS haters and “software for profit I$ evil” peeps luv this idea of the ChromeOS; doesn’t change impending reality IMHO. We’ll see I guess. How is a browser (Chrome) that not too many ppl are thrilled about using it seems, riding on a Linux Kernel (~1% desktop share; Linux has been around a long while; FREE TOO!), maybe running on a tiny, weak Netbook computer, and an improved Windows 7 and improving IE8 going to lead to MS’s demise?
That since Microsoft had IE built in (and you couldn't do anything about it), they assumed that most people wouldn't run off searching for an alternative (and they didn't). So, that made them unmotivated to even consider wasting (in their eyes) time developing IE. That, plus I'm sure they didn't look at it that seriously, because the internet was still in it's infancy.
Then Firefox came along, and it took a while but IE started being updated to look like Firefox and act like it. But, why would I waste time tabbed browsing in security hole ridden IE when I can do it better with Firefox? That, plus I love AdBlockPlus, NoScript, and ElementHider. (Firefox was in version 1.x when I added it.)
Great points on innovation. It seems to me when a big company innovates its usually the result of them making a smaller company inside of itself, more of a skunkworks sort of project. The original IBM PC as an example or more recently EMC Atmos.
As for Apple, this is the case where one man, still, despite the companies size drives the vision. In most cases f Jobs doesn't like it it doesn't happen. Take the delayed and rumored tablet that is supposed to be based on iPhone technology. This is a Job's personal project and his perfectionism forces everyone back to the drawing board. While that means you have to wait for the Apple Tablet/NetBook, I can assure you it will be perfect. At least as far as he is concerned :)
It certainly seems there's a correlation between the size of a company and its ability to be innovative and nimble. You need to be small to move fast; startups often operate with one guy or gal making strategy calls that are executed immediately. (Remember when Bill Gates called the shots?) If a startup really has something hot, that kind of responsiveness is a big advantage.
Of course, big companies can't turn themselves back into startups. They can, however, find ways to take advantage of their size to get distribution where it counts, to diversify, and to launch into hot new markets through startup-like divisions. Apple's done it; IBM and HP manage it.
Microsoft is cobbled by a sense of its own entitlement and place in history. I'm reminded of the big newspaper and media companies that would rather battle change than learn to monetize their presence on the Web. In the end, they'll lose.
I think you nailed it with your remark on security. IE is a target for all the hacker lunatics out there with nothing better to do than to screw around with IE and try to infect users' computers.
Why should we stick with IE when every time we turn around there seems to be "security problem" that others don't seem to have. My PC and my parent's lap top both ended up with a virus, even with measures such as anti-virus and firewalls in place. Both were on IE.
I was able to take care of it and debug them both, but when my parents saw that, they said that if it had happened to them they would not have had a clue as to what to do and how to handle the situation, probably making everything worse. That (and a few other things) made them decide they really don't want to use their computer any longer. As they travel and I do think a computer is good for them to have, even if just for emergency, I suggested that maybe they sell their current laptop and get a Mac, as they seem to be much more "disease free"!
If anything will be the downfall of IE, it will be security playing the biggest part.
Couldn't agree with this comment more - I think a lot of people tried other browsers simply because they tired of feeling like Microsoft forced them into using IE. Also, the mighty typically stop innovating and IE often doesn't handle the latest needs as well. Some tech markets (i.e. semiconductors) have a constant leapfrogging of leaders since its almost impossible in some cases to stay innovative while you are also staying atop the market. With software cycles so shortened, this could certianly be where this market moves.
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