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Chris Minnick

A Decade on the Web: A Look Back & Ahead

Written by Chris Minnick
12/17/2009 13 comments
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To many of us who got our start working on the Web in the 1990s, the 2000s may have seemed like a letdown. We had dreams of a Semantic Web, the Dow at 8 million, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, groceries delivered to our doors at the click of a mouse, and retiring at 30.

What we got was a dotcom bust, terrorism, war, natural disasters, recession, air travel becoming unbearable, and MySpace. There were some good things, too, of course.

As we prepare to enter a new decade, I'd like to take a look back at some of what I consider to be the highlights from the last 10 years, along with predictions for the next 10:

Highlight: Microsoft didn't win
In the '90s, it seemed possible that Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) would forever dominate the operating system and Web browser market. Although the company formerly known as "the evil empire" still has sizable leads in both of these areas today, it faces strong competition from the likes of Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) Ironically, concerns about Google and Apple having monopolies have largely displaced similar concerns about Microsoft a decade ago.

Prediction: In 2019, pundits will be talking about the dangers of the "open source monopoly." (Yes, I realize this is an oxymoron, but these are pundits I'm talking about.)

Higlight: The browser "Back" button became worse than useless
As Websites have increasingly taken advantage of technologies such as AJAX and Adobe Flash to update the user interface dynamically (without going to a new "page"), the "Back" button that still lurks in the upper lefthand corner of your browser has become a major source of confusion and errors.

Prediction: In 2019, the Forward and Back buttons will be gone from your Web browsers (except, of course, for the people who are still using Internet Explorer 6).

Highlight: Google cracked the holy grail of making money from small businesses
By creating Adsense (which allows any Website to generate revenue from advertising) and Adwords (which allows anyone to place pay-per-click ads on Google's network), Google gave small businesses access to a legitimate, less effective, and more expensive form of spam.

In the same way that Red Bull profits from people who aren't willing to buy speed on the black market, Google has made billions from small businesses that want the cheapest possible way to advertise their exercise machines, but aren't willing to send bulk email to millions of strangers.

Prediction: In 2019, Google will have a fleet of biplanes circling over every major city, pulling giant e-paper banners with rotating text ads.

Highlight: User-generated content threatened to put pros out of business, but didn't
While it's true that most Websites are relying increasingly on volunteer contributors, most people continue to be able to distinguish quality content.

Prediction: In 2019, newspapers will still exist, but the only surviving sections will be "Celebrity Gossip" and a new type of hyper-local section dedicated to news and gossip about your family and your next-door neighbors. Everyone will subscribe so that they know what their neighbors are saying about them.

Highlight: We all found less creepy ways to reconnect with our high school crush
Thanks to the likes of MySpace and Facebook (or LinkedIn for people who really want to appear nonthreatening), it's now acceptable to hunt down the one that got away and imagine what might have been.

Prediction: In 2019, Facebook, The Sims, and virtual reality will combine to allow you to have the experience not only of reconnecting with old flames, but of living out the life that never was. Facebook's privacy preference defaults will be set to allow anyone to have a simulated life with anyone else without their permission.

Highlight: We rediscovered what was so great about the telegram
Text messaging, status updates, and Twitter have finally gotten us away from the long-winded conversational requirements of the telephone, instant messaging, email, and blogs. If the ships in Pearl Harbor could be alerted to the immanent attack in less than 10 words, you can certainly convey your feelings about dinner in less than 140 characters.

Prediction: Look for a Morse Code revival trend sometime around 2019, complete with Morse "vocals" in popular music.

Even with the dotcom bust and the economic recession, the first ten years of the new century were a time of rapid Web expansion. The next decade should hold even more surprises.

— Chris Minnick, e-publishing consultant and CEO of Minnick Web Services

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DHagar
Thinkernetter
Monday December 21, 2009 12:47:01 PM
no ratings

I agree, hounhosp.  I think business has identified ways to make the web profitable.  I think that trend will cntinue.

DHagar

Phavanhna
Researcher
Sunday December 20, 2009 11:51:31 PM
no ratings

@Terry Sweeney: I agree with you on the Video and even more TV on mobile devices; we will soon have picture search by google; in 2019, we will have Video search

@Chris Minnick : Funny point about Newspaper; I would add that Newspaper would still exist in a new form of a Newspaper app on mobile phones; so they should call it "mobilenews"

DavidSilversmith
Thinkernetter
Sunday December 20, 2009 1:01:02 AM
no ratings

Although I began working for an Internet Service Provider in 1995, in my personal memory the Internet really took off in 1999 and I had the chance to attend the Internet World trade show and see the hoopla at it's peak!

While Chris has put together a great list of key events over the last decade what struck me most was how much Chris left out which highlights the amazing pace of change that we have seen since the Internet began to boom.

So much technological change has occured in such a brief span of time - and even with economic troubles the pace is barely slowing down!

hounhosp
Researcher
Saturday December 19, 2009 1:31:42 PM
no ratings

One of the noticable impact of the web in the 2000's is undoubtly the progress in web journalism (professioanl and amateur) and the way it has affected printed news paper. Also, the in the 2000's the web has changed the way we collaborate and share information and "mind".

In the enterprise, department line has blurred due to portability, collaboration and easy of use of web applications. Projects have improved and many companies have seen their revenues increased. Despite the economic meltdown, we can still say that the web in the 2000's has helped to add great values to companies.

DHagar
Thinkernetter
Friday December 18, 2009 4:47:28 PM
no ratings

I'm in agreement with you, Nasimson.  I think we have made significant progress and the web has functionally become a viable communication link in both society and in business.

As the markets continue to grow and expand, I think there will actually be significant strategic growth in business use, which should keep the web viable despite economic declines.

Those compounded changes and increased adoption should produce even further innovation.

DHagar

GajaKannan
IQ Crew
Friday December 18, 2009 3:34:55 PM
no ratings

Websites we know or familar with would be gone by 2019.  All the websites without any plugins would display immersive user experience that even a news website will have more 'second life' feel to it.  We wont be clicking on menus and hyperlinks, we would be interacting with screen avatars to get news about our neighbours and celebrities...

Oh BTW, even if we are not using IE6, AJAX frameworks are mature enough to support forward and back button.  I remember a channel9 video from msdn demonstrated using Ajax kit from MS and I am sure there are other tools do it.  So we all will be happy again to use our back and forward buttons :)

nasimson
Thinkernetter
Friday December 18, 2009 1:54:11 AM
no ratings

> Even with the dotcom bust and the economic recession, the first ten years of the new century were a time of rapid Web expansion.
> The next decade should hold even more surprises.

Since now instead of destination, the internet has become much more of an enabler & facilitator especially as an efficient distribution channel for an increasing portfolio of product & services. Its due to this, that I believe economic recessions will cease to slow the growth of internet.

Terry Sweeney
no ratings

LOL... good one, Chris! The Web's future looked so bright and limitless 10 years ago, but it's a different animal now, as are the dominant players. In 1999, I would have also predicted much wider use of broadband and video; despite the inroads video has made, it's still a bit of a disappointment for reasons we've debated at length here.  

cbrown
IQ Crew
Thursday December 17, 2009 5:22:03 PM
no ratings

Ah, how could I have forgotten Lynx! That's why we'll forever see ALT tags in HTML code (or continue to have HTML code period)!

Kurtkeys
no ratings
1 saves

Cbrown,

You neglected to mention those of us who are so "Command-line Elitest" that we still use lynx the read html pages.

And even if your GUI browsers loose the buttons, You can still press "<ALT>, left arrow" to go back. My internet browsing began pre-mouse era on FidoNet. And some things die hard for us old dudes.

Respectfully,

Kurt

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