This week the blogosphere and mainstream media have been -- dare I say it? -- a-twitter over the possibility of Google launching a "Google Drive" or GDrive cloud-based storage for your files. Many reports gushed over the prospect of unlimited online storage as being "game changing." TR Daily suggests GDrive would make local hard drives obsolete. What rubbish!
It's not that I don't like cloud computing. I frequently use Gmail and Google Docs, as well as a variety of other online storage services. But I'm a realist about the problems, which some reporters and analysts are glossing over.
Google's mother-of-all-online-storage-ventures was predicted in 2006 and 2007. The reports this week are similar. In essence, GDrive would allow anyone to store huge amounts of any type of data, possibly "unlimited," for free or a modest fee. All your gigabytes of music and movies, photos and videos, and business and personal documents would be secure in Google's benevolent "Don't Be Evil" servers. With unlimited storage, you wouldn't need gargantuan hard drives, some writers rhapsodize. If all your data were in Google's cloud, and you could use online applications, why would you need applications on your desktop or laptop computer?
TR Daily says, "So, don't be surprised if the computer you'll be using a few years down the road comes with no hard drive at all, but boots the Google operating system entirely off Gdrive and the Internet." Sorry, TR Daily, but you're imagining an unrealistic future -- at least for most people for the short to medium term.
Firstly, Internet access isn't omnipresent. There are so many locations where connectivity is non-existent or so slow that it's practically useless. The solution is, duh, applications that locally store data on your computer. Sure, you can upload data to the cloud and download it when you have connectivity. Indeed, this Tuesday Google announced "offline Gmail" for exactly this purpose -- downloading email to your computer for when you have no, or poor, connections. But that's still local storage, right?
Secondly, even if you have great connectivity, the cloud could suffer from storms. That is, it's not working. Gmail usually works fine, but it does go down, and then you're stuck if you don't have another way to access your email. I keep copies of my email at three online locations -- my email hosting company, an ISP, and Gmail -- and on my computers in Microsoft Outlook and Mozilla Thunderbird, and on my BlackBerry.
Thirdly, I'd be shocked if GDrive didn't include some form of advertisements that, like Gmail, would be based on your stored files. Just as Gmail indexes your email to make it quick and easy to search messages, so will any GDrive necessarily index your files. When Gmail was launched, there were firestorms of protest about the potential for privacy/security breaches. Those concerns have died down, but they will flare up anew when people aren't storing "merely" a few gigabytes of email, but hundreds of gigabytes or terabytes of different files.
Fourthly, storage space on desktop computers, laptop computers, and even netbooks is increasing dramatically as prices are decreasing. Today, 120 GB and 160 GB drives are available on many netbooks. Some cellphones come standard with 8 GB of internal memory and/or an 8 GB microSD card. In other words, local storage is becoming less of a concern.
Don't get me wrong. Cloud computing already is part of my present, let alone the future of computers and mobile devices. But if/when GDrive is launched, it's important to remember that it will be a useful tool, but not the beginning of the end for local storage or local applications.
Microsoft has officially posted information about its new cloud computing service for storing and synchronizing data between your cellular phone and the Internet. The service was rumored to be called "Skybox," but it's called "My Phone." At least, that's what this cellphone-centric service is called.
For now, it's a beta version that's available by invitation-only.
You may back up contacts, calendar entries, photos, music, videos, tasks, SMS, and documents on the phone. This information also may be viewed on a Microsoft Web site.
My Phone will work with Windows Mobile 6 (and later) versions, be free (so far) and store 200 MB.
I mean that Windows 7 and Windows Mobile 7 devices could more easily take advantage of cloud computing services for synchronization, downloads, editing, etc. I'm not suggesting that the next version of Office would offer the same features on a cellular phone as on a computer. But I am suggesting that it would be easier to use and manipulate data stored on the cloud on all the devices, and changes on one device would be stored and synchronized on all the others as seamlessly as possible.
You know a lot more about the underlying code that I do. Perhaps you'd want to write a ThinkerNET piece about what the future of Microsoft's wired and wireless Internet strategies should be!
Windows 7 is coded for x86. Windows Mobile is coded for ARM. Not one line of object code is common, and almost certainly will not be common. The Intel Atom CPU, while more mobile than the Celeron, will probably never be sold at the price point of ARM.
There is however a Microsoft 'merge' going on. The expectation is that WM7 (Phones and PDA's) Nav Ready next version (Personal Navigation systems) and CE7 (other kinds of devices) might share more of a code base. So far, they are skewed a few revs from each other. Makes it hard to move a driver from one to another for example.
What MS does mandate in a high level of interoperability between its systems, and I expect the level of interoperability with the cloud to be even higher.
Windows Mobile's GUI is very important for consumers, regardless of whether Microsoft offers cloud computing. For most consumers, the look and feel and ease of use of operating systems such as OS X, Android and the Palm webOS will be much more important than any cloud services from Microsoft.
For business users -- who are often more comfortable with advanced, complicated and powerful operating systems -- such as Windows Mobile, Microsoft's cloud services likely would be an advantage. Of course, for businesses, security is a major consideration.
I think Microsoft is indeed trying to merge its various platforms, specifically Windows 7 and the Windows Mobile 7. But we're not likely to see a significant integration until 2010, and that's a long time when Apple, Android and Palm are continuing to improve their operating systems.
Another factor is the online applications stores and whether there are many easy apps that offer desktop + mobile capabilities.
I agree that Google's products typically are extremely easy to use. One of my complaints is they are sometimes too simple -- that is, they lack very useful features. Apple has been accused of that too, such as not offering a two-button mouse.
I'm not an expert on Sharepoint, but I certainly agree that it's not immediately intuitive. But that's a failing of many Microsoft products.
As for Jakob Nielsen's site....I know he is praised as a usability god. But I'm actually not a fan of his Web site. It's not that it's bare bones, but that it could be designed a bit better to facilitate understanding.
I tried Google docs. It was such a friendly experience. They even had a nice little animated cartoon to show me what it does and why I needed.
Then, in my day job I am trying to use, and get other to use, Sharepoint. ARGH. Ten times the functionality, but not anywhere near as aproachable. Very hard to introduce into a social group that still runs on ledger sheet and mechanical adding machine metaphors.
This is a great link, to the godfather of Usability, adviser to Apple AND Google on the subject. http://www.useit.com/ Kind of a basic site? Right?? But this is the guy who knows the way.
That's why I think GDrive isn't going to be the earth-shattering service that some other writers have suggested. Many online storage services offer lots of features -- probably many more than GDrive will, at least at the outset.
Of course, "better" doesn't always triumph. Google certainly has brand awareness, and many consumers consider Google far superior to Microsoft's, which is equated with crashing computers.
Microsoft seems to be working on a variety of fronts with cloud services that have different names but overlapping features. Perhaps we'll hear more about Microsoft's cloud services, as some rumors predict, during the Mobile World Congress.
What about synchronization, Yup. To disk, and via Outlook folder too
sharing among multiple computers: Yup I use home and work
you and friends/relatives: Yup. Public access options too
capabilities for cellular phone access, etc.? Yup, and more coming
The interesting thing is Mesh. Mike Hall demoed this at last year's Embedded System Conference. It will be interesting to see what he will show this year. It will be interesting to see what happens. The idea is to move past the 'disk' metaphor. items may have code, and they will run where they are- who case with instruction set.
I think the value of GDrive (or any similar online storage service) depends on several things, including the speed of your wired/wireless connection and the features.
For example, if you're on a fast connection -- and the GDrive server also is fast -- seeing a "Google Drive" on your computer could work almost as well as a local drive. (I'm really looking forward to getting Verizon FiOS by March, and it starts at 10M bps down, with packages for 20M bps and even 50M bps.)
Also, although many people have large hard drives, some people do not. Even with a large hard drive, you sometimes fill it. GDrive could be useful for, at least, temporary storage until you get a larger local drive or delete some files.
In addition, when you have devices with smaller drives that can't store all your stuff, such as a laptop/netbook and cellular phone, a GDrive is certainly better than nothing when you're away from your main computer.
But currently there are so many online storage services that I hope GDrive offers special things -- unlimited or a huge amount of online storage for free, fine-tuning different types/times of back-up, sharing and synchronizing files, integrating existing Google services (Gmail, Picassa, Flickr, Docs, etc.).
The ThinkerNet does not reflect the views of TechWeb. The ThinkerNet is an informal means of communication to members and visitors of the Internet Evolution site. Individual authors are chosen by Internet Evolution to blog. Neither Internet Evolution nor TechWeb assume responsibility for comments, claims, or opinions made by authors and ThinkerNet bloggers. They are no substitute for your own research and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose.
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