This year we'll see an evolution, rather than a revolution, in wireless Internet. If you liked 2008's products and services, you'll find more to like in 2009.
Here are some specific predictions about what we'll see this year:
More cellphone browsers. Last year, cellular phone browsers began getting much more innovative, as I've written. All cellphone browsers, such as Windows Mobile, will get updates this year, but the most intriguing will be Mozilla's Fennec. Fennec is still in alpha, but it promises nifty features and should be available this year.
Mobile OS madness. While corporations are merging, shrinking, or going out of business, the business of smartphone operating systems is booming. We've already got Microsoft's Windows Mobile, Google's Android, Nokia's Symbian, Research in Motion's BlackBerry OS, Apple's OS X, lesser flavors of Linux, and the aging Palm OS.
Speaking of Palm, if rumors are correct, the company at this week's Consumer Electronics Show will unveil -- after years of aborted efforts -- a new OS, code-named "Nova."
To succeed, Palm will need to offer drop-dead great handsets. ("Just as good as..." won't be good enough.) It will also have to convince lots of developers to create innovative software and strike deals with U.S. cellular operators to sell subsidized Nova devices. If Palm doesn't meet all three conditions, it will continue its death spiral.
The OS X versus Android apps war. The war begins in earnest as Android tries to prove it can go head-to-head against the powerhouse of Apple iPhone/iTouch applications. The Android Market for applications began last year, but 2009 will see the introduction of paid apps. The first Android-based phone, T-Mobile's G1 by HTC, received mixed reviews, as did the Android OS. But the OS shows definite promise.
However, Apple's censorship and restrictive policies of rejecting software that could compete with its own current or future offerings could be a major incentive for developers to work with Android. With a variety of Android phones planned for this year (perhaps six to 10), the Google-promoted OS could give mobile OS X a run for its money.
Microprojectors will get commercial. I've written several times on ThinkerNet about the development of microprojectors for cellphones. This year, you'll be able to buy a few different models, such as those from WowWee, Logic Wireless, and Samsung. They will include standalone devices connected via a cable or integrated into the handset. The resolution won't be high quality, but it's the start of what will be a common cellphone accessory in a couple of years.
Mobile marketing will get serious -- and political. With companies drastically curtailing or canceling both mainstream media and -- gasp! -- Web advertising, this should be the year corporations get serious about advertising on cellphones. It can be cost effective and even useful for consumers. I've written previously about how I like SMS-delivered coupons, such as those from Borders.
One big push will be from companies involved in Barack Obama's election campaign. Companies that helped mobilize millions of Obama supporters, often via SMS, are now promoting their abilities to mobilize cellphone subscribers to purchase products. Look for SMS advertising campaigns that also integrate social networking components as well as free, advertiser-branded mobile applications.
4G will be hype. Fourth-generation cellular will mostly be a war of words. The
Clearwire/Sprint/Xohm WiMax efforts will face delayed implementation in the U.S. because of financial and technological difficulties. Verizon will push its LTE efforts, beginning, possibly, late this year, but don't expect much coverage until the end of 2010.
These are relatively conservative predictions. But that's why I think I'm going to be correct!
Cellular phones are more closed than computers, so I don't think we'll find them "cracking" the Internet as much as computers. But we will see phones being used for all sorts of applications, some of which that aren't available on computers, especially location-based applications.
As phones get more powerful and able to access almost any Web site, I can certainly see many people using their phones in many ways just like computers. They're doing it now.
I do not think phones will replace computers when accessing the Internet. In emerging countries, many people do get their first taste of the Internet on a phone. It's all they can afford.
But the experience of using a computer is, usually, so much easier -- with a large monitor and keyboard, fast processor, etc. -- that for most activities, people will prefer to access the Internet via a computer. Also, with the price of computers -- such as netbooks -- getting down to $300 and even less -- many more people will be able to afford them.
That's not to say that many people -- even those with multiple computers -- won't use their phones to frequently access the Internet. Even in my house, where I have desktop and laptop computers, I often use a phone to access the Internet and read e-mail because I have it with me.
Cellular phone penetration in the U.S. is something like 84 percent, at least according to the CTIA. So the U.S. has certainly expanded its use. However, some countries have penetration rates above 90 percent. Also, you could say penetration rates will exceed 100 percent if you figure that (1) many people have more than one phone and (2) cellular can be in more devices than just a phone.
As for politicians using phones/BlackBerrys, the BlackBerry is used all over Washington, D.C. (where I live and work) by Congressmen (and women), Senators and their staff.
"3) I also wonder if US internet cell phone access has already reached the level of countries like Japan."
In my opinion, US does not over reach when deploying the latest technologies. I do not feel that we are behind at all, and actually believe that our rate has been the equillibrium for this economy. Everything seems to be coming together (rfid, location aware services, wireless video/social web etc) in an orderly, near synergetic fashion. I don't feel that we would have been able to handle a faster rate of change, and the further along we are, the more we are prepared for even faster change (law of accelerating returns).
The iphone was DOUBTED by MANY developers in 2001 to be in the short run pipeline by many developers.
Is anyone(general consumer) that is not aware of what is available in Japan today really complaining about where our wireless service/capabilities are? when they are not complaining about their wireless devices? an ISDN line from 10 years ago can't compete with an AFFORDABLE and MUCH FASTER wireless internet service of today. I think NTT DoCoMo had a bigger advantage then, versus now.
Your predictions are very interesting and enticing. As I read your post, I wonder:
1) Will mobile internet gain in the near future the same freedom internet had during its first years? Will there be a movement of cell users that will try to break the corporation boundaries with their devices? It’s exciting to think about that, like on a spy movie with a leading character cracking codes with a tiny device.
3) I also wonder if US internet cell phone access has already reached the level of countries like Japan. Such level is important in order to think of a real evolution in this kind of communication.
4) Finally, the political aspect thrills me. Pres. Obama cant use his blackberry because it is not safe enough. But polititians will sure use such kind of equipment to promote themselves, no question about it.
Technological advances will determine how well a phone fulfills our requirements for a "regular" computer. In July I wrote about turning a phone into a laptop replacement.
In some ways, people already are using phones instead of taking laptops on short trips. For reading and replying to e-mail and surfing Web sites, phones are often adequate. In many countries, especially emerging nations, the only "computer" people have is their phone.
However, we still want large, high resolution computer screens, a large QWERTY keyboard, a fast processor, etc. It's usually so much easier to use a computer instead of a phone to, for example, view Web pages or type long messages and documents.
So, we still have a way to go before the phone can replace the computer for most people.
Hello Alan! It seems that with such a development of cell phone technologies, we won't need computers any more. We can surf the Internet, write novels, listen to the music, take photos, read the documents. If I understand correctly, soon people can compose and record music with the cell phones.
Requiring a data plan with a phone is becoming a little more common in the U.S., but it's a two-edged sword. Cellular operators can generate additional revenues, but the added expense will drive away some potential subscribers.
Cellular operators often do a terrible job of marketing specific applications. Once the sale is made, they rarely interact with the customer -- except for the monthly bill. Operators really need to communicate on a regular basis, especially via e-mail newsletters, about new applications and how to use them. They should also make it inexpensive for people who don't have data plans to begin checking out Web access with low-cost introductory or starter data plans.
But even operators who have these type of plans don't do a good job on maintaining an ongoing "conversation" with customers.
I hate writing so much about Apple, but when Apple introduced its mobile SDK I wrote in March that the company would "produce more application sales per person than any other consumer phone." That certainly has been the case! Apple has a great -- but not invincible -- App Store. Google can put a lot of money into the Android Market, so it will be very interesting to see the "war" this year.
We'll see a variety of mobile software stores this year, but none will be as interesting as Apple and Android, although the new Palm OS has possibilities.
Two of your predictions sounds really accurate if you ask me: "More cellphone browsers." and " 4G will be hype...for now".
Mobile browsers: I strongly agree that mobile browsers are going to get major overhauls this year but that doesn't mean that the end user is going to start using them right away. The reason, apart from being incredible user friendly and well designed, of the Iphone success is given by the fact that, at least in USA, you have to acquire a data plan with it. That hadn't been a requirement with other high-end phones (Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, etc) that provide very similar functionalities (e-mail access, google maps [without the extremely pretty interface though], web search etc).
Mobile OS madness: This madness is not going away as long as the business model of having the phones tied to specific mobile carries continues to exist.
The OS X versus Android apps war: Now, this is the fun part. I think that this war is going to be fierce. Even though Symbian, soon to become open-sourced Symbian, and Windows Mobile have been around for a while, the two new kids on the block Android and iPhone OS are going to dominate the market. As you mention, centralized stores (meaning easier revenue) and new development environments are driving the market. As I mentioned above, it is worth mentioning that T-Mobile is following AT&T/Apple model of tying the phone with a data plan....;)
[UPDATE]
Not really that related but really funny pic of browser wars!
The rumors, as I mentioned in my blog post, were correct. Today (January 8) at the Consumer Electronics Show Palm unveiled a new operating system -- the Palm Web OS -- and a new handset incorporating a touch screen and slide-down physical keyboard.
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