Proponents of the three major fourth-generation (4G) cellular protocols -- LTE (Long Term Evolution), WiMax (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) and Qualcomm Inc. (Nasdaq: QCOM)’sUMB (Ultra Mobile Broadband) -- were battling for the hearts and minds of attendees at last week’s CTIA Wireless 2008 conference in Las Vegas.The consensus among analysts -- with which I agree -- is that LTE will become the most widely used 4G wireless Internet protocol.
LTE’s ascendancy isn’t surprising, because the protocol is the next step up the evolutionary path for the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM).The overwhelming majority of the world’s cellular operators employ GSM and will select LTE.With the CDMA-centric Verizon Wireless opting for LTE, the United States will become more in tune with the GSM world.UMB isn’t much in the running, because cellular operators want to avoid Qualcomm’s licensing fees as much as possible.
This doesn’t mean LTE is technologically superior to WiMax or UMB.Qualcomm’s CDMA 1x cellular protocol (1xRTT and 1xEV-DO) is, arguably, technologically better than GSM for voice quality and data rates.But selecting global standards requires balancing numerous issues, such as the ease and cost of upgrading, the availability of hardware/software and devices, and political considerations.
LTE will dominate 4G.Cellular operators will be able to take advantage of the economies of scale in the development of infrastructure equipment, phones, and software, just as they have taken advantage of scale with GSM, GPRS (General Packet Radio Service), EDGE, and the various versions of HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access).Until LTE is commercially implemented, we won’t know its true real-world speeds.I assume we’ll see data rates of 2 to 3 Mbit/s downstream and perhaps half those rates upstream.However, the reality doesn’t stop manufacturers from hyping LTE’s theoretical and laboratory speeds of hundreds of megabits per second.
WiMax’s proponents WiMax proponents also are touting their technology.During the CTIA Wireless 2008 show, Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) introduced its new WiMax-enabled N810 Internet Tablet, which is slated to be available this summer.It’s a nice device (I have the N810 with WiFi and Bluetooth), but Nokia couldn’t resist a bit of hype.The labels on the bottles of water they gave away proclaimed, “The real Internet finally made mobile.”I guess 3G cellular phones and modem cards give us only the fake Internet.
WiMax’s fans say the technology is two years ahead of LTE, and there’s some truth to this.A few WiMax networks already are operating, including South Korea’s WiBro system.WiMax could be implemented in emerging nations that don’t have 3G networks or for local networks.It's a flexible technology that proponents see for fixed applications, such as replacing cable modem and DSL, as well as for mobile.Although WiMax’s specifications aren’t completely nailed down, they are much further along than LTE’s.We might see a handful of LTE networks next year, but 2010 and 2011 are more realistic for major commercial deployments.
If, and when, Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) launches its WiMax network, Xohm, it promises 2 to 4 Mbit/s downloads and 1 to 3 Mbit/s uploads.The odds are against Xohm because the company faces huge challenges, such as raising billions of dollars for a nationwide system, debugging the infrastructure, ensuring a variety of devices, facing wireless Internet competition from cellular operators, and eventual competition from LTE.Sprint also must contend with its own poor management that has caused the company to lose tens of billions of dollars and millions of customers to competitors.
However, the U.S. doesn’t always follow the majority.We have successfully implemented CDMA networks.Verizon Wireless has implemented Qualcomm’s MediaFLO mobile TV, and AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T)will launch the same technology next month, when much of the world will use DVB-H (digital video broadcasting for handheld devices).If Sprint can overcome all of its problems, perhaps the U.S. will have a mobile network that isn’t part of the majority.
A professor who works with Intel? You could have all sorts of interesting questions for him about wireless hardware, software and chipsets!
As I wrote -- and I haven't changed my position -- LTE will be the dominant 4G technology, with some "wins" for WiMAX. Of course, if you look at the ITU definitions for 3G, you'll find that many cellular operators were calling systems 3G, such as EV-DO 1xRTT, when they certainly didn't approach 3G speeds.
All the 4G speeds are pretty much lies, too, as proponents typically quote the highest theoretical data rate. Even when data rates are quoted as being "real world," they often refer to lightly loaded systems with strong signals. In other words, the real world data rates for "real" people are usually significantly slower.
Many years ago I did a little consulting for Intel's venture capital group which was just beginning to look at wireless.
No problem, I understand that getting through every IE post is probably the harderst part.
I'm taking a class this semester with a professor that works at Intel and is working hands-on with the 3G and 4G standards, so I'll be sure to ask him about it.
Sorry I took so long to reply to your comment. I just didn't notice it among the other Internet Evolution comments.
WiMAX will mostly be used by new carriers who don't have cellular spectrum and in areas where 3G isn't extensive or where it doesn't exist yet.
Intel wants to do whatever it can do make as much money as possible. Combining WiMAX and LTE into a single chip makes some sense in markets where both are available.
And now some reports from Intel talking about how the changed from thinking that WiMax was the technology of the future into one that thinks WiMax is one of the technologies.
I was at a Cisco talk the other day and they mentioned how much they loooooveeeed video, and the way the internet is moving - with some help from them, selling "telepresence" and some other solutions. Which BTW, is amazing! incredible resolution.
I wonder if Intel decides to support LTE too - as Cisco is doing.
Yes, LTE will take a while, and WiMAX will be implemented in the meantime. It will be interesting to see just how capable and/or inexpensive WiMAX is compared to LTE. I want to see how fast WiMAX operates in commercial systems and whether it's really attaining 4G speeds or is more like 3G or 3.5G. Of course, I want to see the same thing with LTE when it's available!
Well, seeing how LTE is still a couple of years from even a standard or hardware, it would make sense for those companies to push for some other technology in the mean while. And if something happens and LTE doesn't prove to be the technology for the next generation of mobile telecommunications, they have the R&D for the second best!
The Open Patent Alliance is a nice start, but I'm not sure if it will help much. There are many patent-holders for WiMAX and some aren't members of this Alliance. So, it's a good move, but I don't know if it will make a huge difference.
I think companies like Intel and Cisco understand that LTE will be the dominant next-generation technology, but they want to create a thriving WiMAX market, too, in order to sell more hardware.
What do you think of the OPA - Open Patent Alliance? created recently between Cisco, Alcatel-Lucent, Samsung, Clearwire and Sprint. Specially, Alcatel-Lucent that is playing both sides.
It doesn't make sense for them to be supporting and investing in both technologies, or does it?
Are they seeing LTE as a successor to WiMax? even if they are both considered 4G.
There are a lot of news regarding this in the web, but the one I read it from was this.
It's true, there isn't a right answer. (is there a right answer for anything in this World?) But a standard's technology and spectrum use, etc have less say than many other factors - primarily financials.
Most decisions are purely based on partnerships and things that might not really influence the user's experience.
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When government officials talk about information “transparency,” they don't mean augmented reality (AR). But AR will play a major role in enhancing government transparency, although it won't be welcomed by many officials.
I am somewhat addicted to the Internet, and I like visiting Finland. But the Finnish government's declaration that access to broadband Internet is a legal right waves a red flag in front of many people, including me. That said, despite the inflammatory nature of the concept, it has more merit than you might think.
T-Mobile
customers with Sidekick cellular phones might have the dubious "honor" of experiencing one of the worst-ever consumer cloud computing meltdowns in the United States -- if not the worst.
While Google introduces its new Chrome OS (which I'm hearing will be widely available in one year? Did I mishear that?), IBM announced 10 new products today to help companies using IBM System z mainframe technology.
Smarter Collaboration: How to Thrive in a Challenging Business Environment Market conditions are changing faster than ever, and organizations need to improve their agility and adaptability in order to provide better service and improve processes. The ability to work with customers, business partners, and employees as effectively as possible - while at the same time holding down costs - is a key to success. READ THIS eBOOK
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Techies have been going crazy over the pending release of Nokia's N900 cellular phone, which incorporates a newly revised touch-screen operating system. Reiter's got one. Is the craziness justified?
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Industry initiatives and government stimulus funds are giving enterprise software vendors a great opportunity to help build out and manage smart grid technologies.
The problem with telepresence is that it's not universally accepted, because video calling isn't. While we can all do video calling, we also apparently worry too much about how we look. If we want HD telepresence in our future, we have to dress down, mess up our hair, and dive into our online life.
The US loses about $20 billion a year on pirated software, movies, and music. But public policy can help stem the tide of digital theft. For example, France has recently passed a 'three strikes and you’re out' law, whereby if after two warning letters an individual continues to download pirated software then his Internet access will be cut off. US policy makers should consider adopting similar policies.
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