Proponents of the three major fourth-generation (4G) cellular protocols -- LTE (Long Term Evolution), WiMax (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) and Qualcomm Inc. (Nasdaq: QCOM)’sUMB (Ultra Mobile Broadband) -- were battling for the hearts and minds of attendees at last week’s CTIA Wireless 2008 conference in Las Vegas.The consensus among analysts -- with which I agree -- is that LTE will become the most widely used 4G wireless Internet protocol.
LTE’s ascendancy isn’t surprising, because the protocol is the next step up the evolutionary path for the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM).The overwhelming majority of the world’s cellular operators employ GSM and will select LTE.With the CDMA-centric Verizon Wireless opting for LTE, the United States will become more in tune with the GSM world.UMB isn’t much in the running, because cellular operators want to avoid Qualcomm’s licensing fees as much as possible.
This doesn’t mean LTE is technologically superior to WiMax or UMB.Qualcomm’s CDMA 1x cellular protocol (1xRTT and 1xEV-DO) is, arguably, technologically better than GSM for voice quality and data rates.But selecting global standards requires balancing numerous issues, such as the ease and cost of upgrading, the availability of hardware/software and devices, and political considerations.
LTE will dominate 4G.Cellular operators will be able to take advantage of the economies of scale in the development of infrastructure equipment, phones, and software, just as they have taken advantage of scale with GSM, GPRS (General Packet Radio Service), EDGE, and the various versions of HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access).Until LTE is commercially implemented, we won’t know its true real-world speeds.I assume we’ll see data rates of 2 to 3 Mbit/s downstream and perhaps half those rates upstream.However, the reality doesn’t stop manufacturers from hyping LTE’s theoretical and laboratory speeds of hundreds of megabits per second.
WiMax’s proponents WiMax proponents also are touting their technology.During the CTIA Wireless 2008 show, Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) introduced its new WiMax-enabled N810 Internet Tablet, which is slated to be available this summer.It’s a nice device (I have the N810 with WiFi and Bluetooth), but Nokia couldn’t resist a bit of hype.The labels on the bottles of water they gave away proclaimed, “The real Internet finally made mobile.”I guess 3G cellular phones and modem cards give us only the fake Internet.
WiMax’s fans say the technology is two years ahead of LTE, and there’s some truth to this.A few WiMax networks already are operating, including South Korea’s WiBro system.WiMax could be implemented in emerging nations that don’t have 3G networks or for local networks.It's a flexible technology that proponents see for fixed applications, such as replacing cable modem and DSL, as well as for mobile.Although WiMax’s specifications aren’t completely nailed down, they are much further along than LTE’s.We might see a handful of LTE networks next year, but 2010 and 2011 are more realistic for major commercial deployments.
If, and when, Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) launches its WiMax network, Xohm, it promises 2 to 4 Mbit/s downloads and 1 to 3 Mbit/s uploads.The odds are against Xohm because the company faces huge challenges, such as raising billions of dollars for a nationwide system, debugging the infrastructure, ensuring a variety of devices, facing wireless Internet competition from cellular operators, and eventual competition from LTE.Sprint also must contend with its own poor management that has caused the company to lose tens of billions of dollars and millions of customers to competitors.
However, the U.S. doesn’t always follow the majority.We have successfully implemented CDMA networks.Verizon Wireless has implemented Qualcomm’s MediaFLO mobile TV, and AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T)will launch the same technology next month, when much of the world will use DVB-H (digital video broadcasting for handheld devices).If Sprint can overcome all of its problems, perhaps the U.S. will have a mobile network that isn’t part of the majority.
A professor who works with Intel? You could have all sorts of interesting questions for him about wireless hardware, software and chipsets!
As I wrote -- and I haven't changed my position -- LTE will be the dominant 4G technology, with some "wins" for WiMAX. Of course, if you look at the ITU definitions for 3G, you'll find that many cellular operators were calling systems 3G, such as EV-DO 1xRTT, when they certainly didn't approach 3G speeds.
All the 4G speeds are pretty much lies, too, as proponents typically quote the highest theoretical data rate. Even when data rates are quoted as being "real world," they often refer to lightly loaded systems with strong signals. In other words, the real world data rates for "real" people are usually significantly slower.
Many years ago I did a little consulting for Intel's venture capital group which was just beginning to look at wireless.
No problem, I understand that getting through every IE post is probably the harderst part.
I'm taking a class this semester with a professor that works at Intel and is working hands-on with the 3G and 4G standards, so I'll be sure to ask him about it.
Sorry I took so long to reply to your comment. I just didn't notice it among the other Internet Evolution comments.
WiMAX will mostly be used by new carriers who don't have cellular spectrum and in areas where 3G isn't extensive or where it doesn't exist yet.
Intel wants to do whatever it can do make as much money as possible. Combining WiMAX and LTE into a single chip makes some sense in markets where both are available.
And now some reports from Intel talking about how the changed from thinking that WiMax was the technology of the future into one that thinks WiMax is one of the technologies.
I was at a Cisco talk the other day and they mentioned how much they loooooveeeed video, and the way the internet is moving - with some help from them, selling "telepresence" and some other solutions. Which BTW, is amazing! incredible resolution.
I wonder if Intel decides to support LTE too - as Cisco is doing.
Yes, LTE will take a while, and WiMAX will be implemented in the meantime. It will be interesting to see just how capable and/or inexpensive WiMAX is compared to LTE. I want to see how fast WiMAX operates in commercial systems and whether it's really attaining 4G speeds or is more like 3G or 3.5G. Of course, I want to see the same thing with LTE when it's available!
Well, seeing how LTE is still a couple of years from even a standard or hardware, it would make sense for those companies to push for some other technology in the mean while. And if something happens and LTE doesn't prove to be the technology for the next generation of mobile telecommunications, they have the R&D for the second best!
The Open Patent Alliance is a nice start, but I'm not sure if it will help much. There are many patent-holders for WiMAX and some aren't members of this Alliance. So, it's a good move, but I don't know if it will make a huge difference.
I think companies like Intel and Cisco understand that LTE will be the dominant next-generation technology, but they want to create a thriving WiMAX market, too, in order to sell more hardware.
What do you think of the OPA - Open Patent Alliance? created recently between Cisco, Alcatel-Lucent, Samsung, Clearwire and Sprint. Specially, Alcatel-Lucent that is playing both sides.
It doesn't make sense for them to be supporting and investing in both technologies, or does it?
Are they seeing LTE as a successor to WiMax? even if they are both considered 4G.
There are a lot of news regarding this in the web, but the one I read it from was this.
It's true, there isn't a right answer. (is there a right answer for anything in this World?) But a standard's technology and spectrum use, etc have less say than many other factors - primarily financials.
Most decisions are purely based on partnerships and things that might not really influence the user's experience.
The ThinkerNet does not reflect the views of TechWeb. The ThinkerNet is an informal means of communication to members and visitors of the Internet Evolution site. Individual authors are chosen by Internet Evolution to blog. Neither Internet Evolution nor TechWeb assume responsibility for comments, claims, or opinions made by authors and ThinkerNet bloggers. They are no substitute for your own research and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose.
It is difficult to underestimate the value of wireless data in Haiti in aiding relief workers and residents in wake of the 7.0 magnitude earthquake that hit the country on January 12. Quite literally, wireless data has been a life-saving technology.
I'm cautiously optimistic that Apple's iPad will be successful because it's Apple-like and non-Apple-like. Those characteristics have major advantages and disadvantages that affect the value of the iPad. UPDATED 12:25 PM
May the gods be praised! Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) has finally unveiled what appears to be its online file storage capability -- a so-called Google Drive or GDrive -- for consumers and businesses.
Hysteria has reached fever pitch as techies around the world can hardly contain themselves until January 27, when Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) is rumored to be announcing its new tablet computer. Also, during the past several months, interesting tablets and concepts for tablets have been unveiled by other manufacturers. The New York Times has called 2010 "The Year of the Tablet."
In Charles Dickens's classic story A Christmas Carol, Ebenezer Scrooge asks the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come about scenes he will be shown from his future: "Are these the shadows of the things that will be, or are they shadows of things that may be, only?"
Smarter Collaboration: How to Thrive in a Challenging Business Environment Market conditions are changing faster than ever, and organizations need to improve their agility and adaptability in order to provide better service and improve processes. The ability to work with customers, business partners, and employees as effectively as possible - while at the same time holding down costs - is a key to success. READ THIS eBOOK
your weekly update of news, analysis, and
opinion from Internet Evolution - FREE! REGISTER HERE
Wanted! Site Moderators Internet Evolution is looking for a handful of readers to help moderate the message boards on our site – as well as engaging in high-IQ conversation with the industry mavens on our thinkerNet blogosphere. The job comes with various perks, bags of kudos, and GIANT bragging rights. Interested?
To save this item to your list of favorite Internet Evolution content so you can find it later in your Profile page, click the "Save It" button next to the item.
With the number of mobile broadband users more than doubling in 2009, and soon to exceed fixed broadband, the Internet saw a historic transition this year – and the long-term effects are incalculable.
New gateways are allowing service providers to sell a set of services (an experience) over any broadband connection – even those outside their physical broadband networks.
Telcos are falling over themselves to launch app stores – but are the app developers listening? Most telcos will need to do a lot more to engage their attention.
The iPhone has created a new form of the 80/20 rule, according to AT&T, which claims only 3% of iPhone users generate 40% of wireless traffic. But is that really a justification for usage caps and pricing tiers? What did AT&T think was going to happen with the iPhone pricing plan, and are they shoveling something else at us now that we're hooked?
Comparing Internet services is tough because service providers price and market their services based on a best-case scenario connection that most consumers will never enjoy.
Techies have been going crazy over the pending release of Nokia's N900 cellular phone, which incorporates a newly revised touch-screen operating system. Reiter's got one. Is the craziness justified?
How do you recognize an Internet bubble when you see one? Saunders explains how all bubbles have four symptoms in common – and takes a swipe at Google and Twitter into the bargain.
Research shows that the youth of today like Facebook – but not blogging or Twitter. Does that mean Facebook has won, or just that it's not yet out of favor? Will all the services we see today fade into Ovaltine-or-Wheaties status in just a few years?
What kinds of companies are doing the most innovation in the data center? Turns out it's midtier enterprises that are taking the "Just Right" approach.
Ray Kurzweil's Blio and Apple's iPad tablet will make it easier than ever to have books "read" to us, says Dr. Kim, who believes that talking tablets will become interwoven into our consciousness as we "merge" with the increasingly elegant machines we hold in our hands.
Digg
Del.icio.us
Reddit
Email This
TWEET THIS
