The Macrosite for News, Analysis and Opinion about the Future of the Internet
Tom Wheeler

The Old Media Is Dead. Long Live the Old Media!

Written by Tom Wheeler
10/1/2007 18 comments
no ratings
1 saves
DISCUSS   Digg   Del.icio.us   Reddit   Email This   TWEET THIS

The future of the Internet always seems to be described in terms of the death of something else. Newspapers are dead meat -- why wait for printing ink on paper when you can get it on your screen almost instantaneously? Television will join the dodo bird when everything streams as zeroes and ones.

I don’t believe it. Yes, there will be changes from the status quo ante Net, but the status quo media aren’t going to disappear. I’ve got enough gray hair to remember when television was going to destroy radio and when cable television was going to be the end of broadcast television. I’ve even heard the stories told of the early days of radio when it was forecast that music over the air would destroy the sheet music and musical instrument businesses. Those goners seem to still be around.

So allow me to take the contrarian view and argue on behalf of the Old Media. I have a hard time, for instance, believing Rupert Murdoch spent $5 billion to buy the print-on-paper Wall Street Journal so he could either watch it die or quit printing. The same guy who owns MySpace still buys ink by the tank car all over the world.

The same holds true with television broadcasting. Here’s an amazing fact: The TV broadcasters convinced the U.S. Congress to give them new digital spectrum while everyone else (like the mobile phone folks) had to pay billions for similar airwaves. The new televisions required to receive such transmissions, however, have no antennas. When it comes out to the box, your new HD flat-panel television couldn’t pick up one of those digital broadcast signals if your life depended on it. Over-the-air broadcasting may be going away as a way to deliver to consumers, but the market isn’t the consumer -- it is the delivery of the additional content enabled by using digital airwaves to deliver to cable systems.

Therein is why no one is going to die (at least the smart ones) from Internet-driven change: When the world changes, you change too. Web 2.0, Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), and the others may get the headlines and may make a new crop of billionaires, but Old Media with a modicum of smarts aren’t going away.

The future of the Internet, therefore, will lie in how it is exploited by the Old Media, not how it buries the Old Media. I believe this so strongly that I’ve bet on it. Here are a couple of examples.

A high proportion of 18- to 34-year-olds watch television while they are also on their computers. Watching a sporting event and want to see the statistics (or arrest record) of the person who just scored the points? Just search. Watching the news and want to see how President Bush’s rationale for the Iraq War has changed yet again? Just search. Thanks to the Net, television is becoming a two-screen experience. That’s why my firm, Core Capital Partners , invested in a startup called Jacked.com. Jacked “knows” what is on your TV and does the search for you, automatically. And who was Jacked’s first user? The Old Media NBC Sports. Just think about it: NBC has created more opportunities to sell ads on a second screen because they see the Net as additive, not negative… and they’re providing a better experience for their viewers.

One of the problems with the Net is that the delivery of information has expanded exponentially, but the bandwidth between our ears has not. I co-founded SmartBrief, a news filtering and summarizing service for industry verticals, in order to overcome this problem. Today a million and a quarter people get their daily business news pre-sifted and summarized via SmartBrief. If they want to know more, it’s just a click away to the source. But if they want to maximize their mental bandwidth, it is done for them. And who are the champions of this service? Publishers like The New York Times, which understands the editorial function’s importance increases as the amount of information increases.

The Internet has brought a wonderful new generation of capabilities and services. It will destroy those unwilling to adapt to its changes. But this ain’t buggy whips, this is evolution. The Old Media is dead. Long Live the Old Media!

— Tom Wheeler, Former executive director of the CTIA and long-time head of the National Cable Television Association; now a VC with Core Capital

DISCUSS   Digg   Del.icio.us   Reddit   Email This
Current display:       newest comments first       display in chronological order
Page 1 of 2   Next >
igorpecovnik
Rank: Cave Painter
Sunday March 2, 2008 5:58:10 PM
no ratings
I am checking researches in our country (Slovenia) and this year there was first significant drop of printed media, but I agree with conclusion that print will not die. It will fall, never die. Drinking cofee and reading newspaper is still common and nice start of the working day for a lot of people. Before attaching to the computer monitor for hours, it's nice to have some old school, habbit, beeing more human.

Last week I got some new free magazine with the mail and I was surprised. Someone start to publish news about local internet achivement, new sites, services, interviews and we got new local Blog magazine.

Print and internet is interacting good, what we cannot say for TV. It's not that friendly with the internet.

Regards,
Igor
rrapport
Rank: Cave Painter
Friday February 29, 2008 4:37:37 PM
no ratings

I read the NYTimes every morning with my cup of coffee -- but i read the online edition. I can jump around/surf/factcheck and correlate right there, and get a more complete picture.

When radio came about and people anticipated the loss of sheet music, they were right! Before radio, most people could read and play music, now, this amounts to popping in a CD, tuning in to MTV/or itunes, or playing guitar hero.

Change is gradual, but it IS happening. Daily print media will disappear: what will remain will be on flexible book-like kindle, but more generic.

If you want buggy whips or printed media, you will have to move the third world...as long as they exist.

Elisa Lucia Cundiff
IQ Crew
Sunday October 14, 2007 11:37:57 PM

Yes, new media and old media make a charming duo.  What is really interesting, though, is how the Internet will shape how we interact with news in the coming years.

Google News could bump it up a notch in intrigue if they used an additional Google function- Google translate.  This paired with Google's stellar search engine could create a feature allowing you to compare articles on the same topic from around the globe.

For example, if you were reading an article about Myanmar, you could link to any news article in the world and have it instantly translated for you. You can do this manually by typing the domain directly into Google's translate site, such as I have done with this Saudi Arabian newspaper here.  But if news articles were paired with direct links, it would be easier to read more on the same subject from viewpoints as varied as; Fox, Al-Jazeera and the China's People Daily.  Admittedly some of the text is cumbersome but better than you might expect from a computer generated translation.

I would even suggest that Google take this a step further with Google books, allowing users to cross-reference information from differing historical accounts over the same event.  Imagine comparing Japanese and Chinese text books for content on the Nanjing massacre or comparing Pakistani and Indian texts on the events of 1947. 

 

fun, fun, fun,

Elisa 

James Johnson
Staff
Wednesday October 3, 2007 3:04:02 PM
no ratings

Yehudi,

I'm sure you recognize this old adage, "Content is King." These days, it should be revised to "Quality Content is King."

If newspapers are going to die...it will be a slow death. It's the quality content--versus the most stimulating--that will draw the faithful, no matter where it shows up...in old media or new.

I found an interesting article on the subject. The Quality Gap: The Race for Context Pushes Content Quality to the Sidelines by John Blossom, who talks about where quality content fits in.

In the intro by Robin Hood, she says, “While traditional business analysts pick holes in social media and new media points fingers at the flaws in mainstream online publishing, standards for content are dropping across the board.”

James

modza
IQ Crew
Wednesday October 3, 2007 9:22:58 AM
I'm afraid newspapers are using the same argument Clayton Christensen exposed in Innovator's Dilemma. As a business in any industry starts losing customers to competition, after the first panic, they start rationalizing that those are the least profitable, so shedding them means the profit margins on the remainder go up -- and glory be! the reported satisfaction level and loyalty of the remaining customers goes up. But -- the competition, which is so cheap that it can peel away a few customers even if it's not as "good" in the way the incumbent has always measured quality -- starts getting better. And it starts peeling off more and more customers, from the bottom up, which continues to have the effect of raising the average profit margin of the remaining customers. Think about transistors and vacuum tubes. At first transistors produced terrible sound. But they were cheap, and they offered new virtues that became appealing over the old hi-fi: portability, for instance. Gradually, they improved, so the vacuum tube people now are, yes, fantastically profitable -- but an almost invisibly small industry.
Ray Le Maistre
Rank: Cave Painter
Wednesday October 3, 2007 4:28:54 AM
no ratings

What new media and more content does is help sort the wheat from the chaff, that's all. No more room for lazy TV producers and useless writers. They will end up stacking shelves. Rubbish content will exist on some server somewhere, but just because it exists doesn't mean someone will read/watch/listen to it.  

And tech breakthroughs aren't the be all and end all. You can get excited by a new technology, but that excitement doesn't last long if the applications or content that run on top aren't interesting/compelling etc. Example - being able to choose the camera angle when watching live sports. Who chooses the one that's different from the director? Plus, people are lazy. Let someone else do the work, make the decisions. 

And online TV - yes, we will all take a look and play with the features and stuff, but if the content sucks we won't watch it. Unless we are really dumb (maybe I shouldn't discount that factor...)

If blogs are boring, only the people that write them will read them and think how interesting they are. You know who you are...

Newspapers will die if they are useless and irrelevant and that's all down to the content. If it's a great read, and, like the Guardian in the U.K., makes use of great color reproduction and VERY LARGE photographs that have a visual impact that online materials don't currnetly have (given the average screen size of PCs etc), then they will survive and generate revenues.

There are still only seven days in a week and 24 hours in a day -- people will be drawn to the most stimulating experience they can find, be it TV, online, print, audio (radio is till big, yes?) -- there is a positive correlation between atrractive (not necessarily great) content and success. End of.

Andy Dornan
Rank: Scrivener
Tuesday October 2, 2007 6:15:55 PM
You're right that there'll always be a demand for expertise and analysis. I just don't think the media industry does a great job at supplying those, and the popularity of blogs shows that a large number of readers/viewers feel the same way.  It doesn't matter if their reasons for distrusting the news are sometimes contradictory, or even whether they're right or wrong. The end result is a declining audience for professional media.

This is most apparent in coverage of US politics, but the same thing applies to specialist technical media. Wikipedia is already hurting textbook sales, and improved technology will help amateurs compete in entertainment too. If paper ever gives way to the iPad (a cheap and lightweight Tablet PC), novelists and publishers will be competing with people who give their work away for free. Low cost video technology will lead to a surge in community produced TV shows and movies.

I think the big question for media companies and workers is what kind of business models can exist as these changes occur. Right now, most bloggers work for love not money, which isn't encouraging for the media (and has to be even worse for the bloggers.) On the other hand, open-source proves that community production doesn't have to mean the end of paychecks and profits, so perhaps the industry can survive. But it will definitely need to change.
greenbone
IQ Crew
Tuesday October 2, 2007 1:20:01 PM
no ratings

...I disagree, Andy.

While the Net does, as you say, provide a two way street for communication, there is still a need and demand for expertise, analysis, professional perspective.

Sure, the Net opens the door for countless folks that may have otherwise just been armchair or coffe-house generals, politicians, pundits....but people still want  authoritative perspective - even if they are getting a chance to talk back.

I think the "two-way conversation" is also not quite the right analogy. The Net allows us to converse asynchronously, but one analyst, or authority, or spokesperson can't literally converse with millions of people. There is still a "one to many" aspect to media - even though there are message boards, commenting, communities built around common interests, emails, etc....and I think there will continue to be.

If content is king, great content is divine. 

 

 

Nicole Ferraro
IQ Crew
Tuesday October 2, 2007 9:35:56 AM
no ratings

Re: "After the shakeout during the Dot com bubble bust, old media is still standing, although they've learned a lesson: Watch where the ad dollars are going (online) and adjust with the times."

The New York Times yesterday published an article about the welcome decline in newspaper circulation. The article explains that, as we continue to migrate to the Web, many of the larger papers have decided it isn't worth the cost to keep up with finding and keeping some readers.

I suppose that in itself is an interesting turn of events. Even if we, as readers, want to keep up with print and online media, we may eventually face rejection from the print industry. Although we're not ready to give up on the print industry, it could be that the print industry is ready to give up on us.

Here's a link to the article

Andy Dornan
Rank: Scrivener
Monday October 1, 2007 7:50:39 PM
The Internet is a bit different from other forms of once-new media in that it's two-way: It blurs the distinction between creator and consumer, lowering barriers to entry and changing broadcasts into conversations. This makes the shift from traditional to online media much bigger than the shift from print to airwaves or from radio to TV.

Two-way conversations are obviously a good thing from a perspective of freedom, democracy and of society overall. But they're also very threatening to people or companies used to the old way of doing things, and I don't think that's just resistance to change. If everyone can be a publisher or broadcaster, there's a lot less need for a media industry at all.
Page 1 of 2   Next >
The ThinkerNet does not reflect the views of TechWeb. The ThinkerNet is an informal means of communication to members and visitors of the Internet Evolution site. Individual authors are chosen by Internet Evolution to blog. Neither Internet Evolution nor TechWeb assume responsibility for comments, claims, or opinions made by authors and ThinkerNet bloggers. They are no substitute for your own research and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose.
a moderated blogosphere of internet experts
Tom Nolle
Tom Nolle   2/9/2010   4 comments
If you’re a slightly gray, mid-level manager who travels a lot, you may be on the way up and worthy of professional respect, but one thing you most definitely are not is “cool.” Still, while today’s youth may think you just crawled out of a paleolithic cave, there may be hope. The iPad from Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) (supreme arbiter of coolness) just might make you older guys (or actually old guys like me) cool.
Rob Leathern
Rob Leathern   2/9/2010   5 comments
As we well know, the online echo chamber and its increasingly viral and social components can magnify the propagation speed and distribution of stories and rumors, whether true or false.
Rob Salkowitz
Rob Salkowitz   2/9/2010   5 comments
A remarkable event in world affairs is taking place this week in London, as the first One Young World conference is set to convene.
Ira Winkler
Ira Winkler   2/8/2010   15 comments
In his recent Congressional testimony, Dennis Blair, the U.S. director of national intelligence, stated that the U.S. is "severely threatened" by cyber attacks and that the recent Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) attacks should serve as a wake-up call.
Jart Armin
Jart Armin   2/8/2010   14 comments
Fatal System Error, the book just released by West-coast-based journalist Joseph Menn, is really a public policy statement written as a thriller for a wider reading public. UPDATED 2:45 PM
IETV: the thinkerNet on film
5
of
2pm EST
Tue
Feb 23rd
2pm EST
Thu
Mar 4th
3pm EST
Tue
Mar 9th
an IBM information resource
sponsored content
big blue blog
Todd Watson
IBM is announcing today the first of its Power7 processor-based systems and the Power7 processor itself at an event in NYC.
white papers & case studies
an IBM information resource
sponsored content
Smarter Collaboration: How to Thrive in a Challenging Business Environment
Market conditions are changing faster than ever, and organizations need to improve their agility and adaptability in order to provide better service and improve processes. The ability to work with customers, business partners, and employees as effectively as possible - while at the same time holding down costs - is a key to success.

READ THIS eBOOK
your weekly update of news, analysis, and
opinion from Internet Evolution - FREE!

REGISTER HERE
Wanted! Site Moderators
Internet Evolution is looking for a handful of readers to help moderate the message boards on our site – as well as engaging in high-IQ conversation with the industry mavens on our thinkerNet blogosphere. The job comes with various perks, bags of kudos, and GIANT bragging rights. Interested?

Please email: moderators@internetevolution.com
CMP Media LLC
Internet Evolution – not for thickies
Congress Hits the Snooze Button With China
Ira Winkler
In his
recent Congressional testimony, Dennis Blair, the U.S. director of national intelligence, stated that the U.S. is "severely threatened" by cyber attacks and that the recent Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) attacks should serve as a wake-up call.

CLICK FOR MORE
Lee H. Berke
The Decline & Fall of Broadcast Television

2|9|10   |   1:00   |   No comments


Want to know the future of broadcast television? Take a look at broadcast radio’s past.
Tom Nolle
Everything New Is Old Again

2|9|10   |   2:13   |   6 comments


Research shows that the youth of today like Facebook – but not blogging or Twitter. Does that mean Facebook has won, or just that it's not yet out of favor? Will all the services we see today fade into Ovaltine-or-Wheaties status in just a few years?
what.the.ferraro
Email Marketing Gets Desperate

2|8|10   |   2:31   |   4 comments


Promotional emails will use just about anything timely to get people to buy things. Seriously, anything.
Steve Saunders' Outernet
America, Truck Yeah!

2|8|10   |   1:42   |   5 comments


Steve likes his new Dodge Ram 1500, but hates Chrysler's Web non-sales strategy. Rant on, li'l buddy.
what.the.ferraro
Twits Go Wild for Resignation Tweet

2|5|10   |   1:48   |   4 comments


Jonathan Schwartz is the first Fortune 200 CEO to resign via Tweet. Can he walk on water, too?
Full Nelson
Go With the FLO, Part 2

Part 2 of 2   |  
See complete series
2|5|10   |   2:17   |   3 comments


Fritz and his sweater continue their review of Qualcomm's FLO TV.
Singer at C-Level
Goldilocks & the Data Center

2|4|10   |   3:39   |   2 comments


What kinds of companies are doing the most innovation in the data center? Turns out it's midtier enterprises that are taking the "Just Right" approach.
Full Nelson
Go With the FLO, Part 1

Part of 2   |  
See complete series
2|4|10   |   2:39   |   1 comment


Qualcomm's FLO TV gizmo streams live TV shows. Tragically, they include the O'Reilly Factor
Eurotrash
High & Dry in Barcelona

2|3|10   |   1:08   |   No comments


Ray’s heading to Barcelona for the Mobile World Congress, and he’s not happy about it, the miserable git.
Sweeney Blog
No Sex, Please... It's the Super Bowl

2|3|10   |   2:24   |   2 comments


The Super Bowl ads that CBS rejected are turning up online, generating lots of attention but zero revenue for the broadcaster.