The future of the Internet always seems to be described in terms of the death of something else. Newspapers are dead meat -- why wait for printing ink on paper when you can get it on your screen almost instantaneously? Television will join the dodo bird when everything streams as zeroes and ones.
I don’t believe it. Yes, there will be changes from the status quo ante Net, but the status quo media aren’t going to disappear. I’ve got enough gray hair to remember when television was going to destroy radio and when cable television was going to be the end of broadcast television. I’ve even heard the stories told of the early days of radio when it was forecast that music over the air would destroy the sheet music and musical instrument businesses. Those goners seem to still be around.
So allow me to take the contrarian view and argue on behalf of the Old Media. I have a hard time, for instance, believing Rupert Murdoch spent $5 billion to buy the print-on-paper Wall Street Journal so he could either watch it die or quit printing. The same guy who owns MySpace still buys ink by the tank car all over the world.
The same holds true with television broadcasting. Here’s an amazing fact: The TV broadcasters convinced the U.S. Congress to give them new digital spectrum while everyone else (like the mobile phone folks) had to pay billions for similar airwaves. The new televisions required to receive such transmissions, however, have no antennas. When it comes out to the box, your new HD flat-panel television couldn’t pick up one of those digital broadcast signals if your life depended on it. Over-the-air broadcasting may be going away as a way to deliver to consumers, but the market isn’t the consumer -- it is the delivery of the additional content enabled by using digital airwaves to deliver to cable systems.
Therein is why no one is going to die (at least the smart ones) from Internet-driven change: When the world changes, you change too. Web 2.0, Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), and the others may get the headlines and may make a new crop of billionaires, but Old Media with a modicum of smarts aren’t going away.
The future of the Internet, therefore, will lie in how it is exploited by the Old Media, not how it buries the Old Media. I believe this so strongly that I’ve bet on it. Here are a couple of examples.
A high proportion of 18- to 34-year-olds watch television while they are also on their computers. Watching a sporting event and want to see the statistics (or arrest record) of the person who just scored the points? Just search. Watching the news and want to see how President Bush’s rationale for the Iraq War has changed yet again? Just search. Thanks to the Net, television is becoming a two-screen experience. That’s why my firm, Core Capital Partners , invested in a startup called Jacked.com. Jacked “knows” what is on your TV and does the search for you, automatically. And who was Jacked’s first user? The Old Media NBC Sports. Just think about it: NBC has created more opportunities to sell ads on a second screen because they see the Net as additive, not negative… and they’re providing a better experience for their viewers.
One of the problems with the Net is that the delivery of information has expanded exponentially, but the bandwidth between our ears has not. I co-founded SmartBrief, a news filtering and summarizing service for industry verticals, in order to overcome this problem. Today a million and a quarter people get their daily business news pre-sifted and summarized via SmartBrief. If they want to know more, it’s just a click away to the source. But if they want to maximize their mental bandwidth, it is done for them. And who are the champions of this service? Publishers like The New York Times, which understands the editorial function’s importance increases as the amount of information increases.
The Internet has brought a wonderful new generation of capabilities and services. It will destroy those unwilling to adapt to its changes. But this ain’t buggy whips, this is evolution. The Old Media is dead. Long Live the Old Media!
— Tom Wheeler, Former executive director of the CTIA and long-time head of the National Cable Television Association; now a VC with Core Capital
I am checking researches in our country (Slovenia) and this year there was first significant drop of printed media, but I agree with conclusion that print will not die. It will fall, never die. Drinking cofee and reading newspaper is still common and nice start of the working day for a lot of people. Before attaching to the computer monitor for hours, it's nice to have some old school, habbit, beeing more human.
Last week I got some new free magazine with the mail and I was surprised. Someone start to publish news about local internet achivement, new sites, services, interviews and we got new local Blog magazine.
Print and internet is interacting good, what we cannot say for TV. It's not that friendly with the internet.
I read the NYTimes every morning with my cup of coffee -- but i read the online edition. I can jump around/surf/factcheck and correlate right there, and get a more complete picture.
When radio came about and people anticipated the loss of sheet music, they were right! Before radio, most people could read and play music, now, this amounts to popping in a CD, tuning in to MTV/or itunes, or playing guitar hero.
Change is gradual, but it IS happening. Daily print media will disappear: what will remain will be on flexible book-like kindle, but more generic.
If you want buggy whips or printed media, you will have to move the third world...as long as they exist.
Yes, new media and old media make a charming duo. What is really interesting, though, is how the Internet will shape how we interact with news in the coming years.
Google News could bump it up a notch in intrigue if they used an additional Google function- Google translate. This paired with Google's stellar search engine could create a feature allowing you to compare articles on the same topic from around the globe.
For example, if you were reading an article about Myanmar, you could
link to any news article in the world and have it instantly translated
for you. You can do this manually by typing the domain
directly into Google's translate site, such as I have done with this
Saudi Arabian newspaper
here. But if news articles were paired with direct links, it would be easier to read more on the same subject from viewpoints as varied as; Fox, Al-Jazeera and the China's People Daily. Admittedly some of the text is cumbersome but better than you might expect from a computer generated translation.
I
would even suggest that Google take this a step further with Google
books, allowing users to cross-reference information from differing
historical accounts over the same event. Imagine comparing Japanese and Chinese text books for content on
the Nanjing massacre or comparing Pakistani and Indian texts on the
events of 1947.
I'm sure you recognize this old adage, "Content is King." These days, it should be revised to "Quality Content is King."
If newspapers are going to die...it will be a slow death. It's the quality content--versus the most stimulating--that will draw the faithful, no matter where it shows up...in old media or new.
In the intro by Robin Hood, she says, “While traditional business analysts pick holes in social media and new media points fingers at the flaws in mainstream online publishing, standards for content are dropping across the board.”
I'm afraid newspapers are using the same argument Clayton Christensen exposed in Innovator's Dilemma. As a business in any industry starts losing customers to competition, after the first panic, they start rationalizing that those are the least profitable, so shedding them means the profit margins on the remainder go up -- and glory be! the reported satisfaction level and loyalty of the remaining customers goes up. But -- the competition, which is so cheap that it can peel away a few customers even if it's not as "good" in the way the incumbent has always measured quality -- starts getting better. And it starts peeling off more and more customers, from the bottom up, which continues to have the effect of raising the average profit margin of the remaining customers. Think about transistors and vacuum tubes. At first transistors produced terrible sound. But they were cheap, and they offered new virtues that became appealing over the old hi-fi: portability, for instance. Gradually, they improved, so the vacuum tube people now are, yes, fantastically profitable -- but an almost invisibly small industry.
What new media and more content does is help sort the wheat from the chaff, that's all. No more room for lazy TV producers and useless writers. They will end up stacking shelves. Rubbish content will exist on some server somewhere, but just because it exists doesn't mean someone will read/watch/listen to it.
And tech breakthroughs aren't the be all and end all. You can get excited by a new technology, but that excitement doesn't last long if the applications or content that run on top aren't interesting/compelling etc. Example - being able to choose the camera angle when watching live sports. Who chooses the one that's different from the director? Plus, people are lazy. Let someone else do the work, make the decisions.
And online TV - yes, we will all take a look and play with the features and stuff, but if the content sucks we won't watch it. Unless we are really dumb (maybe I shouldn't discount that factor...)
If blogs are boring, only the people that write them will read them and think how interesting they are. You know who you are...
Newspapers will die if they are useless and irrelevant and that's all down to the content. If it's a great read, and, like the Guardian in the U.K., makes use of great color reproduction and VERY LARGE photographs that have a visual impact that online materials don't currnetly have (given the average screen size of PCs etc), then they will survive and generate revenues.
There are still only seven days in a week and 24 hours in a day -- people will be drawn to the most stimulating experience they can find, be it TV, online, print, audio (radio is till big, yes?) -- there is a positive correlation between atrractive (not necessarily great) content and success. End of.
You're right that there'll always be a demand for expertise and analysis. I just don't think the media industry does a great job at supplying those, and the popularity of blogs shows that a large number of readers/viewers feel the same way. It doesn't matter if their reasons for distrusting the news are sometimes contradictory, or even whether they're right or wrong. The end result is a declining audience for professional media.
This is most apparent in coverage of US politics, but the same thing applies to specialist technical media. Wikipedia is already hurting textbook sales, and improved technology will help amateurs compete in entertainment too. If paper ever gives way to the iPad (a cheap and lightweight Tablet PC), novelists and publishers will be competing with people who give their work away for free. Low cost video technology will lead to a surge in community produced TV shows and movies.
I think the big question for media companies and workers is what kind of business models can exist as these changes occur. Right now, most bloggers work for love not money, which isn't encouraging for the media (and has to be even worse for the bloggers.) On the other hand, open-source proves that community production doesn't have to mean the end of paychecks and profits, so perhaps the industry can survive. But it will definitely need to change.
While the Net does, as you say, provide a two way street for communication, there is still a need and demand for expertise, analysis, professional perspective.
Sure, the Net opens the door for countless folks that may have otherwise just been armchair or coffe-house generals, politicians, pundits....but people still want authoritative perspective - even if they are getting a chance to talk back.
I think the "two-way conversation" is also not quite the right analogy. The Net allows us to converse asynchronously, but one analyst, or authority, or spokesperson can't literally converse with millions of people. There is still a "one to many" aspect to media - even though there are message boards, commenting, communities built around common interests, emails, etc....and I think there will continue to be.
Re: "After the shakeout during the Dot com bubble bust, old media is still
standing, although they've learned a lesson: Watch where the ad dollars
are going (online) and adjust with the times."
The New York Times yesterday published an article about the welcome decline in newspaper circulation. The article explains that, as we continue to migrate to the Web, many of the larger papers have decided it isn't worth the cost to keep up with finding and keeping some readers.
I suppose that in itself is an interesting turn of events. Even if we, as readers, want to keep up with print and online media, we may eventually face rejection from the print industry. Although we're not ready to give up on the print industry, it could be that the print industry is ready to give up on us.
The Internet is a bit different from other forms of once-new media in that it's two-way: It blurs the distinction between creator and consumer, lowering barriers to entry and changing broadcasts into conversations. This makes the shift from traditional to online media much bigger than the shift from print to airwaves or from radio to TV.
Two-way conversations are obviously a good thing from a perspective of freedom, democracy and of society overall. But they're also very threatening to people or companies used to the old way of doing things, and I don't think that's just resistance to change. If everyone can be a publisher or broadcaster, there's a lot less need for a media industry at all.
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