The Macrosite for News, Analysis and Opinion about the Future of the Internet
Gordon Haff

The New System Companies

Written by Gordon Haff
10/4/2007 1 comment
no ratings
1 saves
DISCUSS     Email This

When thoughts turn to the Internet, those thoughts tend to be of software and content. Dreams of search, e-commerce, photographs, music, and all those social applications twittering away. But I’m an old hardware guy, so my thoughts also turn to all the iron, copper, and silicon needed to spew those software and content bits out into the world.

If that sounds boring, it’s not. Taken to their logical conclusion, the changes that are already happening in how we all compute, consume, and communicate will inevitably be mirrored by equally dramatic shifts in the machines that make it all possible.

For the past 25 years or so, we’ve been living in an era of distributed computing during which computers have increasingly migrated from the “glass house” of IT out to the workgroups, small offices, and desktops on the periphery. Even before Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) and Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) became early catalysts for this trend’s exponential growth, computers had been dispersing to some degree for essentially the entire history of computing. The minicomputer and Unix revolutions were among the earlier waves headed in the same general direction.

In one sense, our current era is experiencing just another wave of the same. Let's call it the mobile wave, or the pervasive wave. Computers are everywhere, from cellphones to MP3 players and refrigerators. But there’s a difference from the Wintel wave that ushered in truly widespread distributed computing.

Yes, today computers are ubiquitous, but they’re increasingly devices for interacting with information generated and stored elsewhere. Or they’re autonomous actors handling low-level tasks unbidden. In short, they’re conceptually more like terminals -- albeit compact, sophisticated, mobile ones -- than the personal computers of the last wave that gave users full control over, not just some processing power, but also their data and when and how they connected and interacted with others. The intelligence is in the network or, more precisely, in the vast server back-end that feeds all these devices.

One face of the Internet’s evolution may be the social application running on the cellphone. But the other is the mega-data-center pulling massive power from the hydroelectric dams on the Columbia River. More and more cycles and more and more stored bits are moving online. Consumer services from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) to Flickr are in the vanguard, but software as a service, à la Salesforce.com Inc. , is making steady inroads in business as well.

There are significant economies of scale to this re-centralized computing. Perhaps we don’t end up with five “computers” (in the networked collection of computers sense) as Sun Microsystems Inc. CTO Greg Papadoupolos hyperbolically suggested. But we could well end up with hundreds -- or perhaps tens -- of computers that would handle most of our processing, storing, and communicating.

There are significant security and privacy concerns accompanying all this. The trend is particularly worrisome to folks who embraced distributing computing, not just as a good technical approach to leveraging the power of cheap microprocessors, but as a good social architecture because it puts the user in control of his information and data. But there are also profound implications for how computers will be built and who will build them -- in short, the structure of the whole industry.

Suppose there were just a dozen or half-dozen mega-service providers running mega-data-centers located where a communications nexus can enjoy cheap power. These organizations might have names such as Google or Microsoft. No doubt some countries would get in the game as well. Now here’s the question. How would such entities relate to the vendor landscape of today? Would they be merely large consumers of processors, servers, and software in much the same vein that they are today?

I wonder if we wouldn’t see some fundamental structural changes. As the largest of these service providers seek competitive differentiation and advantage, it will be very tempting for them to explore custom software and hardware angles that leave them looking more and more like today’s sophisticated hardware systems companies.

We’re already seeing harbingers of such a trend. Google doesn’t do silicon, but it does source special motherboards from Intel that it uses to build many of its own servers. And Google’s come under high-profile criticism of late for the degree to which it modifies open-source software for in-house use. In short, Google already intensely customizes “off-the-shelf” components to its own purposes.

Today’s IT is a world of specialization, and no one can “go it alone” to the same degree as the early mainframers or minicomputer makers, which built literally everything from silicon to application software. It’s a question of modern complexity and associated economies of scale. Even if Google found it could benefit from using some custom “Google search processor,” it would almost certainly have it designed and fabricated by someone in the business of doing such things.

But the new scale of recentralized computing brings different needs, which will, in turn, drive different decisions about building and buying. It’s inevitable that Google and its ilk will do many things -- whether in-house or through contractors -- that independent hardware and software vendors have long become accustomed to thinking their purview. For all intents, the biggest service providers could well become system makers (and ones in the old, proprietary, vertically integrated mold) in all but name. The only difference is that they’ll take the computing power directly to their customers rather than bothering with the old messy intermediate process of shipping computers that have to be installed, loaded, and configured.

— Gordon Haff, Senior analyst at Illuminata on grids/supercomputing

DISCUSS     Email This
Current display:       newest comments first       display in chronological order
Michael Singer
IQ Crew
Thursday October 4, 2007 5:59:18 PM
no ratings

Gordon,

What I like most about your commentary is that it really speaks to the heart of what makes our Internet-commerce run.

Without innovations like silicon on insulator, dielectric materials, and photolithography, we wouldn't have half the computing power that we have now. I can only think of what advances in chemical mechanical polishing and microfabrication will bring in the future. When I talk to my non-industry friends about nanometer process technology, they scratch their heads. Most CIOs we talk with don't care if that Xeon chip was made using 90nm, 65nm, or even 45nm process. They just care that the chip performs faster, cheaper and more in control than the last one.  

As staunch followers of chips and server systems, we've seen some real innovations in the past. I was reminded of how far we've come at the last Intel Developer Forum show. It is their 10th anniversary of the confab, and the company replayed several clips from past shows. Who would have predicted 10 years ago or even five that we'd be putting quad-core processors in desktop PCs?  

Still, whenever we talk about innovation in hardware (the slow and laborious partner) we have to remember that it both pushes and pulls the software industry. Virtualization alone will challenge the chipmakers and their friends to come up with more efficient designs. Just look at what Sun announced Thursday and you'll see how software is pushing the hardware and vice-versa.

And yet, the concept of running multiple OSes or maxing out server capacity seemed difficult for the x86 set.

We can only hope that this gentle push and pull between the two industries continues. Who wouldn't love to see how developers will push the limits of a 128-core handheld device?

The ThinkerNet does not reflect the views of TechWeb. The ThinkerNet is an informal means of communication to members and visitors of the Internet Evolution site. Individual authors are chosen by Internet Evolution to blog. Neither Internet Evolution nor TechWeb assume responsibility for comments, claims, or opinions made by authors and ThinkerNet bloggers. They are no substitute for your own research and should not be relied upon for trading or any other purpose.
previous posts from Gordon Haff
Gordon Haff
Gordon Haff   4/28/2011   29 comments
Are there lessons in the Amazon outage? Yes. Probably. But it’s complicated.
Gordon Haff
Gordon Haff   12/3/2010   15 comments
The circumstances behind the latest Wikileaks documents being moved off of Amazon Web Services LLC remain somewhat murky. Senator Joe Lieberman's office is making claims, but Amazon itself hadn't made any direct statements as of this writing.
Gordon Haff
Gordon Haff   11/16/2010   15 comments
The Amazon Kindle's recently announced lending feature comes across more as a check-box response to the LendMe feature of Barnes & Noble's Nook e-reader than as a genuine innovation.
Gordon Haff
Gordon Haff   10/1/2010   26 comments
The digerati in places like Silicon Valley and Cambridge, Mass., aren't just early adopters by heartland standards. They're way out at the very forefront of technology and idea spread.
Gordon Haff
Gordon Haff   6/14/2010   9 comments
For more than the past year, we've seen a steady drumbeat of announcements in the technology space that analysts and developers have taken to calling “NoSQL.”
5
of
Second Shooter
The Cloud May Be Taking Over the Internet

11|28|12   |   2:12   |   6 comments


A change in priorities for networking spending could indicate a fundamental shift in Internet architecture that would affect everyone.
Mary E. Shacklett
Watch Your Business Secrets on Multi-Tenant Clouds

11|26|12   |   1:56   |   1 comment


Multi-tenant clouds assure security for clients, but not necessarily for their ideas. Here's one thing you should discuss with your cloud provider before you sign on.
Mary E. Shacklett
Enterprises Beef Up Data Recovery

11|2|12   |   2:22   |   No comments


Global enterprises are now looking beyond having just two datacenters and toward establishing multiple datacenters in different parts of the world.
Second Shooter
Sandy Tests the Internet

11|1|12   |   2:13   |   2 comments


The superstorm demonstrates that we need to improve Internet reliability and its infrastructure.
Mary E. Shacklett
Microsoft Opens Up Office Options

7|16|12   |   1:38   |   2 comments


Microsoft's recent decision to bundle its Office software with business partner offerings indicates that cloud software may be in the news, but licensed packages are still in demand for failover.
Gil Elbaz
Gathering the World's Data

5|21|12   |   1:49   |   2 comments


The founder and CEO of Factual, Gil Elbaz, is trying to aggregate all the world's information. But… that's not so simple.
Mary E. Shacklett
Benefits of a 3-Datacenter Model

3|26|12   |   2:36   |   2 comments


With 24/7 processing and business continuation paramount, more organizations are considering having three datacenters, where primary and secondary datacenters are in their immediate region and a third is in a remote geography. Why? To avoid repercussions of a major disaster that could hit every IT resource in a specific region.
Mary E. Shacklett
Cloud Needs System Management Superstructure

12|26|11   |   2:14   |   No comments


Cloud is pushing classic corporate data centers beyond their physical boundaries and into new territory to where they one day might be expected to federate with different clouds. For this to happen seamlessly, a new class of systems management superstructure software will be needed.
Singer at C-Level
Slow Down, Google Search

6|16|11   |   2:41   |   2 comments


Google wants your search experience to go faster, but enterprises need to slow down before doing it Google's way.
Wisdom of the Big Chair
Ethernet Storms the Datacenter

6|2|11   |   2:27   |   1 comment


Ethernet has emerged as the dominant networking option in the enterprise, the home, and the WAN. Now, after years of being rebuffed, it is poised to become the dominant method of connecting datacenter devices.
IETV: the thinkerNet on film
5
of
John Kennedy
How Big-Data Is Changing Marketing

6|13|13   |   1:07   |   1 comment


Big-data and analytics tools enable marketers to understand customers as individuals, identifying unmet needs and addressing each customer as a "segment of one," says John Kennedy, VP corporate marketing, IBM.
Kim Davis
Big-Data Can’t Always Sell Wine

5|21|13   |   2:23   |   10 comments


Whole Foods Global Wine Purchaser Doug Bell told me about some of the constraints on using analytics in the US wine market.
Paul J. Fleuranges
Digital Signage Keeps NYC Subway Straphangers on Track

5|6|13   |   3:51   |   1 comment


New York's Metropolitan Transit Authority is conducting a pilot test of digital kiosks to guide subway users to where they want to go more efficiently and at lower cost.
Kim Davis
Fast Forward to the Future

4|23|13   |   2:29   |   20 comments


A look back at tech writing in the 90s makes us wonder where enterprise IT will be 20 years from now.
Mitch Wagner
Google Launches Its Most Depressing Service Yet

4|15|13   |   2:59   |   10 comments


Google's new Inactive Account Manager lets you control how Google disposes of your accounts when you die.
Second Shooter
Argument Over Top-Level Domains Is 'Stupid'

4|11|13   |   2:07   |   3 comments


The whole Amazon.reader debate is a double-stupid. It's stupid to think that there's any e-book buyer who doesn't know Amazon's URL, and it was stupider to let ICANN launch the whole free-form TLD initiative to start with.
Kim Davis
Ladies, Your Tablet Awaits

3|21|13   |   2:22   |   37 comments


ePad Femme is the world’s first tablet “made exclusively for women.”
Wisdom of the Big Chair
NFC Moves Into the Mainstream

3|20|13   |   2:16   |   No comments


While NFC's original goal was to enhance mobile commerce applications, it is finding its way into a number of other uses, which is creating both opportunity as well as challenges for IT departments.
Wisdom of the Big Chair
Integrating Security Into Your Cloud Contract

3|19|13   |   3:35   |   No comments


Enterprises would like to move to cloud computing but are hesitant because they are concerned about providers’ ability to secure company data. Here are some tips that help to ensure that if breaches occur, the business is not left holding the bag.
Brian Baron
How Edmunds.com Collects Customer Information

3|18|13   |   1:15   |   No comments


Edmunds separates customers into segments based on the info it collects on its site and from partners, and uses that to push out custom content, said Brian Baron, director of business analytics for Edmunds.com, at Predictive Analytics Innovation Summit.
2pm EDT
Fri
Jun 21st
an IBM information resource
sponsored content
big blue blog
Todd Watson
Todd Watson   6/18/2013   Post a comment
The IBM Smarter Commerce Global Summit in Monaco kicked into high gear today, and we've already begun to see news emerging from that lovely city-state by the sea.
an IBM information resource
sponsored content
Expert Integrated Systems: Changing the Experience & Economics of IT
In this e-book, we take an in-depth look at these expert integrated systems -- what they are, how they work, and how they have the potential to help CIOs achieve dramatic savings while restoring IT's role as business innovator.

READ THIS eBOOK
your weekly update of news, analysis, and
opinion from Internet Evolution - FREE!

REGISTER HERE
Wanted! Site Moderators
Internet Evolution is looking for a handful of readers to help moderate the message boards on our site – as well as engaging in high-IQ conversation with the industry mavens on our thinkerNet blogosphere. The job comes with various perks, bags of kudos, and GIANT bragging rights. Interested?

Please email: moderators@internetevolution.com
Internet Evolution – not for thickies
Taking a Dim View of Home Energy Management Tech
Mary E. Shacklett
Energy consumption is a primary contributor to
global warming. At the end of 2012, 40 percent of energy consumption in the US came from commercial and residential buildings.

CLICK FOR MORE