During the early days of Internet expansion, we were swamped by rather utopian predictions and claims regarding the future impact of the Internet and new media in the developing world.
It was claimed that the Internet would bring democracy to the masses in the third world and would bring an end to authoritarian regimes in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It was claimed that the expansion of the Internet in these countries would have a wide impact on the cultures and societies of the developing world, by serving as a harbinger of globalization and the market economy. Thomas Friedman’s book, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, was probably one of the more representative approaches to this technologically deterministic world view in respect to developing countries.
In retrospect, practically none of these claims have come to pass. Myanmar (Burma) is still quite capable of keeping a lid on information regarding the current unrest, riots, and demonstrations, with a stranglehold on internal Internet use. China has been quite successful in bending Internet giants like Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), while monitoring, filtering and blocking internal Internet use. Alongside the Great Wall of China is now the Great Firewall of China, blocking even RSS feeds. Bangladesh requires ISPs to provide client and traffic data. These are just some examples.
In the Middle East, the Internet to date has had very little impact, in terms of the liberalization of society and politics. Indeed, in my neck of the woods, radio (Sawa, RAMFM, etc.), satellite television, and cellular telephony have had a greater impact and are likely to continue to do so in the near future, for the simple reason that these are much more pervasive than PCs and Internet connectivity. One should also take into account bandwidth poverty that is prevalent in many developing countries, where broadband is prohibitively priced or non-existent.
The Internet censorship watchdog Open Net Initiative reports that the Middle East has one of the highest and most stringent degrees of Internet filtering and site blocking in the world. According to their regional overview, “Internet censorship in the Middle East and North Africa is multilayered, relying on a number of complementary strategies in addition to technical filtering; arrest, intimidation, and a variety of legal measures are used to regulate the posting and viewing of Internet content.” Exceptions to this are Palestine, Israel, Egypt, Iraq, and Algiers.
While there is little evidence of filtering, there are reports of monitoring, particularly of Websites and the local blogospheres. Even without filtering, the low levels of Internet access throughout the region means that the Internet does not really present a significant threat to non-democratic regimes, and, for now at least, Internet expansion mainly serves limited sectors in society.
According to Sam Bahour, an IT analyst based in Palestine, “as Arabic content and penetration increase, freedom of access to the Net will decrease. These are repressive regimes and closed economies (except for foreigners and those of the ruling families) -- they will regulate the Internet, in a polished way, but regulate nonetheless.” Blogs, for example, have had little impact, in spite of the self-importance expressed by some Middle East bloggers. (Iran is an exception to this, which is why the authorities there actively block the more popular and subversive blogs).
Social network services like Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) and MySpace provide a wealth of information on political dissidents and activists for security services in many developing countries (and most likely Western ones as well). Web 2.0 does not serve liberalization in these countries, but rather as a noose with which those providing independent content can hang themselves.
From an economic perspective, the Internet was touted to level the playing field in developing economies and help break up government monopolies, particularly in areas like telecommunications. To date, this has not happened. Technologies like VOIP (voice over IP), often described as disruptive, are either blocked at the ISP level, or patently illegal in countries like Qatar, the UAE, Kenya, and Mexico. The threat to existing monopolies and oligopolies -- government or otherwise -- is seen as too great, and VOIP is often taken as a threat to national security.
New technologies like WiMax are being rolled out in some developing countries with test implementations in Asia, Africa, and Israel. WiMax has the potential for opening up some of these services, particularly across borders, giving cellular providers a run for their money. Only time can tell whether WiMax will have a significant impact in terms of Net connectivity in rural areas, or whether it will be absorbed and coopted by cellular providers.
Yet the success of WiMax is also dependent on infrastructure issues. Barring the development of infrastructures, such as electricity, the success of WiMax in developing countries is likely to be limited, unless advances are made regarding alternative power supplies (solar energy, battery technology, low-cost handsets, etc.) as well as regulation and policy.
Paradoxically, it is the simple Internet technologies, like email, mailing lists, and Websites, that will continue to have an impact. The Internet has been very useful in the hands of Palestinian users and small businesses attempting to continue their daily lives under Israeli occupation. Video conferencing and collaboration tools allow businesses and individuals to continue working in spite of a bleak reality. These also provide individuals with greater reach than they had in the past, and they help connect diasporas with home countries.
Summing up, it is clear that many of the predictions regarding Internet use have not played out at all, and are not likely to do so in the near future, if at all. Yet there is caveat here: We often tend to expect too much, too soon from technologies, particularly the Internet, and often ignore the fact that technological diffusion, adoption, and use are highly dependent on the unique political arrangements, political culture, and economic structure of a given society.
— Michael Dahan, Professor, Sapir Academic College in Israel
Michael - thanks for the follow up. I think we're on the same page and I understand your point of view. technology hype often leads folks to view potential as probable a long time before it is actually possible.
Point taken. And that's obviously a significant problem. My point is, those who are not restricted by roadblocks have access to this flow of information on the internet and can at very least, educate themselves, and at best, make an attempt to help people in developing nations (funding, resources, etc.). This might not be the ultimate achievement, but it's certainly significant. While we're not all advancing at the same pace, we can hope that as time goes by the governments in developing nations will ease up on their restrictions.
James, lets not forget that the private sector in these countries is highly restricted... ISPs are often owned and certainly controlled by the government. There is a high degree of regulation which deepend the governments control and involvement in this sector...
Thanks for taking the time to compose such a detailed reply. Actually, the piece is meant to come out against the deterministic approach to technology that is so prevalent today. I simply recounted the claims that have been made regarding the Internet, and note that they have certainly not come to be. Of course the net does not have human qualities, it is a tool. The piece focuses on the developing world -- the majority of which is not connected. In the Middle East, only about 15% of the poulation in the region is connected to the net in one way or the other. These tend to be those of the upper classes, who can actually afford an internet connection. Percentages are some what lower in Africa, higher in Latin America.
Yes, the Internet allows those interested in developed countries to access information about the developing world -- but I am focusing on those living in developing countries, with little or no connectivity.
I am not sure I understood your comment regarding censorship. I never stated that the internet brings censorship, but that it is highly censored, filtered, monitored and blocked by the regimes in the Middle East and elsewhere(BTW, the filtering and blocking software is often provided by US software companies). Yes, there was a brief period in the 90s where there was a more open net, but this gap was quickly closed by the different countries. Today, Bloggers that are deemed by authorities to be problematic, are blocked, often their computers seized, and they are sentenced to prison for extended periods.
With governments, often corrupt, in developing countries blocking and controlling the Internet, it is unlikely that this tool will realize its full political, social and cultural potential in the near future. In the developing world, the Internet is neither secure nor trusted.
I agree that the glass is half full, so to speak. With every advancement comes a roadblock of sorts, and in some developing countries that roadblock is the fear of this free flow of information, freedom of speech, and technology overall. Regardless, there is an unstoppable momentum on the Internet that surpasses these restraints. Those who are not prevented from accessing/creating content on the Web are learning about the developing world, posting their own thoughts and ideas, and developing communities devoted to helping those in need (ex: online charities). The Internet, whether or not it has reached its maximum potential in the developing world, has played a major role in educating the masses about the developing world and has provided a tool through which people can educate and assist.
I'd say half full. Even with restricted internet access those countries are well ahead of where they were 10 years ago. Even with all content filtered out that is considered a threat by the regimes, people get more educated on what's going on in the World, and I don't see what would hold back the social and political changes that have taken place in other parts of the World. It will just take some time.
You're right. The Internet is a tool. How that tool is used determines its influence on the local cultural, political, and economic conditions of developing countries.
The fact is, Internet "use" falls somewhere between a third world government’s repressive monopolization of the Internet and the freedom of a country's local entrepreneurs and foreign investors to play a part in developing successful Internet ventures.
Interesting article. Not sure I agree with much except the final point - we expect too much from new technologies without considering the local filters a new technology must go through to have an impact.
The article seems to put human qualities onto the value of the Internet - that it will end world hunger, bring dictators to their knees and end censorship. The Internet is a vehicle, nothing more. A simple means to connect - people, ideas, programs, companies, etc.
I would argue that the few benefits the author acknowledges from the Internet - websites, email, mailing lists, etc - are what make people aware of what is going on in remote areas of the globe providing a mechanism to drive activism. The Internet enables people to get involved, either emotionally, physically or financially. That's good and if that's all the Internet does - that's a lot.
It's true, the countries, regions and individuals the author cites have bigger concerns - (e.g. Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs) - that preclude them from taking advantage of the potential of the Internet - infrastructure, food, medicine, safety, etc. And the problems the author highlights aren't limited to the Internet, freedom of speech, censorship and intolerance exist independently of any one means of communication.
The Internet offers untapped potential right now. What's missing, and what will enable the Internet to move from best-effort pipes good for email and web browsing ( as the author points out), is a mechanism to provide trust and identity. Without it, and without the commitment of content providers, the Internet will be underutilized and remain another unfulfilled promise.
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