Not only was Silver subjected to criticism from people who didn't like his forecast, he had to deal with some very nasty personal attacks too. He must be feeling pretty good this morning.
This is the big night for Silver, and for analytics in general.
Silver himself pointed out on Twitter this week that just because he's forecasting a 90% likelihood of victory for Obama doesn't mean he's forecasting a landslide. Quite the opposite: He's forecasting Obama most likely to win by a narrow margin.
This must be about the last forecast from Silver before the polls close. He's now showing Obama with a more than 90% choice of winning. Romney, thus 10-1 against, which are tough odds to overcome.
Stats don't come naturally to people. Imagine Romney winning, and Silver saying "There you are, I told you so." That would be a head-scratcher for most people, but consistent - as you say - with his data.
Joe - But people who don't understand math will need more clear-cut results. They'll fixate on the big prediction and not look at all the other forecasts Silver has made.
Another way of explaining what Silver does: If the weather forecaster says there's a 75% chance of snow tomorrow, he's not wrong if it doesn't snow. The key is -- how accurate are his predictions over time?
Silver will certainly need to explain what happened if Romney wins, but yes, Silver hasn't ruled it out. It's just appeared highly unlikely for a very long time.
Meanwhile, nice little piece on Silver at TPM. Interesting to see that he retains rights, essentially, to the 538 blog, and is really just "leasing" his brand to the Times.
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Catch up on the week with one simple serving of Friday File. We've pieced together 10 interesting news bites you may have missed and put them together in bite-size morsels.
I've been excited by a few technology announcements, and bored by many, but Google's I/O announcement this week is the first where I found myself getting choked up and teary.
New York's Metropolitan Transit Authority is conducting a pilot test of digital kiosks to guide subway users to where they want to go more efficiently and at lower cost.
Elizabeth Pizzinato, SVP of marketing and communications at Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts, calls content marketing "the new black" and explains how her brand engages its target audience.
Edmunds separates customers into segments based on the info it collects on its site and from partners, and uses that to push out custom content, said Brian Baron, director of business analytics for Edmunds.com, at Predictive Analytics Innovation Summit.
The automotive website uses propensity modeling to target ads and customer registration forms, said Brian Baron, director of business analytics for Edmunds.com, at Predictive Analytics Innovation Summit.
The automotive website uses propensity modeling of customer behavior to convert more site visitors into leads, says Brian Baron, director of business analytics, in an interview at the Predictive Analytics Innovation Summit.
Linda Descano, President and CEO of Women & Co., and managing director of partnerships and branded content of North America marketing at Citi, explains her firm's marketing opportunities and challenges.
Gil Elbaz, CEO of Factual, talks about the importance of data and analytics for marketers and how the technology is evolving to better assist automated, real-time decisions.
The whole Amazon.reader debate is a double-stupid. It's stupid to think that there's any e-book buyer who doesn't know Amazon's URL, and it was stupider to let ICANN launch the whole free-form TLD initiative to start with.
New York's Metropolitan Transit Authority is conducting a pilot test of digital kiosks to guide subway users to where they want to go more efficiently and at lower cost.
The whole Amazon.reader debate is a double-stupid. It's stupid to think that there's any e-book buyer who doesn't know Amazon's URL, and it was stupider to let ICANN launch the whole free-form TLD initiative to start with.
While NFC's original goal was to enhance mobile commerce applications, it is finding its way into a number of other uses, which is creating both opportunity as well as challenges for IT departments.
Enterprises would like to move to cloud computing but are hesitant because they are concerned about providers’ ability to secure company data. Here are some tips that help to ensure that if breaches occur, the business is not left holding the bag.
Edmunds separates customers into segments based on the info it collects on its site and from partners, and uses that to push out custom content, said Brian Baron, director of business analytics for Edmunds.com, at Predictive Analytics Innovation Summit.
The automotive website uses propensity modeling to target ads and customer registration forms, said Brian Baron, director of business analytics for Edmunds.com, at Predictive Analytics Innovation Summit.
Subsidized handsets, rather than locked handsets, should be the focus of regulators. We're not getting good deals, not fostering innovation, and weakening our power as buyers.
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