I've become obsessed with self-driving cars. They're coming soon -- Google's Sergey Brin hopes to see the first consumer models on the road in five years. Expect them to become ordinary in a decade. You might own one yourself, and even if you don't, you won't find it remarkable when one goes by. In less than 30 years, according to experts, three-quarters of the cars on the road will be robocars.
Brad Templeton, who pioneered the Internet business 20 years ago, is obsessed with robocars, too, and he's way ahead of me. He has a detailed Website exploring how robocars are likely to change society.
Because of Internet Evolution's mission, I started thinking about how robocars will change the enterprise and big business. Here's some of the ways I came up with.
The ultimate BYOD
Stripped to its bare esssentials, the robocar is the ultimate mobile computer. It falls into a class with a smartphone or tablet, only it just so happens the user sits inside the mobile device and is carried by it, rather than carrying the device in a pocket or bag.
With robocars, commute time becomes idle time for the rider, or, rather, it becomes work or leisure time. Cars will become little work and leisure cubicles, outfitted with comfortable chairs, screens, and tables and desks for eating and getting things done.
We're already seeing the first glimmer of this with wireless connectivity on trains and planes. Suddenly, people expect to be connected while in transit -- they take it for granted. They use that time to get work done or maybe just watch a movie, fool around on Facebook, and relax.
Just as users now expect to connect with enterprise systems through personal smartphones and tablets, in the future they'll expect their robocars to connect to enterprise systems.
And users will spend more time connecting to enterprise systems through their robocars (and other mobile devices). Right now, two- and three-hour commutes are for the dedicated few who really, really love their houses in the country and their jobs downtown. In the future, super-commutes will become more commonplace. If you can spend your commute time working in comfort, why not spend more time doing it?
Turning the logistics industry upside down
If your business involves getting physical objects from Point A to Point B over roads -- from long-haul trucking to pizza delivery -- your business will be transformed by robocars. You won't need human drivers; just load up your friendly robot vehicle and send it on its way. IT will have hundreds or thousands of new devices to maintain, in the form of the company's fleet of trucks and cars.
This change will throw legions of professional drivers out of work, creating societal upheaval. Truck drivers and the men and women who wear brown to work will join bank tellers, secretaries, Victorian clerks, and the legions of other folks who've been automated out of jobs.
Revolutionizing the car rental and taxi business
Robocars will create new industries, replacing taxicabs and limo drivers with fleets of robocars available for rent. Templeton calls these "whistlecars."
Right now, consumers buy the biggest cars they think they'll need. That's one of the reasons you see so many people driving alone in huge SUVs; they bought the car to fit the whole family on long trips to Grandma, but most of the time, they're just driving solo for a few miles. In the future, most people will just own a one- or two-passenger robocar, like a Smart Car, and use a smartphone app to summon a bigger vehicle when they need the additional space or range. The robo-SUV or -minivan or -pickup truck will drive itself to the customer's home, take the customer around on errands, and then drive itself back to the lot. Managing and leasing out those fleets of whistlecars will be a new business, and a huge one, too.
California grid-lock is largely intentional (as are the high home prices). The leftists in the government have actively resisted improvements in hopes of squeezing the public into going along with more insane mass transit schemes. "Make them suffer and they'll eventually go along." Around the parts of SandyEggo I frequented, there was often only one way to get there from here. Rather than expand the grid of options -- to allow individuals to parallel process the commute -- they channelled and choked.
They've done the same thing in smaller towns in Florida, with much the same results. They wanted to slow traffic flow and create more grid-lock (I used to attend the city and county commission and state legislature committee meetings and hear thenm talking strategy and read the docs)... and they did.
Houston, OTOH, with no zoning, has greatly expanded their roadway systems and there's much less grid-lock.
I've never lived in New York, London, Boston, Washington DC, and other places with their hideous over-crowding, draconian power-mad governments, vastly excessive government extortions, unlike some insane people.
I have lived in Sandy Eggo, and I did take the city and county bus when my car was out of commission. But then again, I sometimes preferred to walk 15 miles to work and 15 miles home than be subjected to mass transit, or when their insane schedule prevented travel at the time I needed to (hiatus in the middle of the day! shutting down in the middle of the evening! They certainly don't operate on programmers' hours!).
I did ride on Cincinnati mass transit a couple times -- nasty, smelly, over-crowded, had to hike or drive miles to get to the closest bus stop, and similar limited service times. The "light rail" is hideously expensive... on the plus side that probably means the fares come closer to covering the operating costs.
The other thing is that, every time a mass transit project is being touted, they always make totally ridiculous claims of ridership. And where do you put your lumber and 8 bags of groceries when riding on mass transit, FCOL?
I favor regulation of private driving. If you cause damage or injury, you have to pay restitution. If you do it intentionally, you also have to pay penalties. Period. Otherwise, you should be let alone and free from govrenment intrusion (as the standard legal phrase has it).
Mashka - I expect they'll mitigate traffic jams, as robocars will find more intelligent routes and will be programmed to cooperate with each other.
But that will be only at first. The more efficiently we can transport people, the more we pack 'em in. So in the long run we'll see even bigger cities, more traffic jams. People might care about them less, though, as their cars become comfortable little coccoons and they don't have to worry about driving.
ScreenWriter - You've never lived in New York, London, Boston, Washington D.C., and other places with great mass transit, have you? Sure, they don't go everywhere, but they go most places you want at most of the times you want, and they're convenient and inexpensive. Certainly moreso than trying to keep a car in those places.
Sure, they won't work everywhere. Here in the American southwest, things are more spread out and it's arguable that mass transit is less practical. (OTOH, here in San Diego, the light rail is crowded during rush hour.)
As for cars: Even if you imagine no regulation of private ownership of automobiles, you still need a massive infrastructure to suppot them. You need roads, mechanics, spare parts, and a gas station on every corner. Hardly a paradise for self-sufficiency.
Hi, Mashka. I am certainly not an expert, but from what I have learned and observed as to how they have worked (from Stanford research on self-driving cars), yes, it would reduce congestion in large cities. What happens is that the ability to navigate is improved by the sensors which relate to the real road conditions (i.e., other traffic in the pathway of the car, obstacles, etc.) that are programmed to respond, as opposed to we human drivers that can be less effective as a result of delay in observation, distractions, slow reflexes, etc.
So in reality, more cars can safely navigate the roads, reducing congestion and accidents.
I have a "California" perspective on this. Where there is so much travel and commuting in personal cars in California, with daily gridlock, the opportunity to have a bit more stressfree personal vehicle travel has some appeal.
In addition, I had the opportunity to take an online course on artifical intelligence from some Stanford professors last year. They demonstrated the technology and design of Google driverless cars. In closely reviewing the reality of what now exists, I was amazed at my attitude change. I actually began to believe that they could be safer, if designed properly. (Note: An increasing amount of automated technology is already being used in our cars, such as disc brakes, cruise controls, etc.)
California's Governor just signed a bill last week making self-driving cars legal in California.
The opportunities, if managed properly, to better organize traffic and provide mobility to those who have lost the ability to drive (i.e., disabled, etc.), is tremendous. Plus, even though more people would be on the road, the gas consumption could be less with less stop/go, etc.
"so long as it's maintained, registered, you're licensed to operate it..."
Thank you for pointing out the pattern of incremental violations by power-mad governments, which, rather than being allowed to expand or tolerated, should be rolled back.
Police -- and plates and registrations and registration stickers and VINs -- do not keep cars from being stolen. Hundreds or thousands of cars are stolen in a typical year in Florida, alone. Take a gander at the annual report _Crime in America_.
"Public transit"/"mass transit" are not free, don't cost "just a buck", don't go from where you want to where you want when you want... but the collectivists looooovvvee them because it makes everyone a controlled serf rather than free individuals.
Taxis, meanwhile, are extremely over-regulated and taxed. See Walter E. Williams 1982 _The State Against Blacks_ and the Institute for Justice http://www.ij.org/
Robocars (and in this I include the recent government demand for black boxes) marry the worst of cars and mass transit by maximizing government power and control.
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