LAS VEGAS -- IBM Impact -- Speaking at the conference on Monday, IBM executives cited survey statistic both from IBM and other vendors demonstrating that, on average, 80 to 100 percent of enterprises plan to deploy a cloud in the next year to three years.
According to IBM's vice president of marketing strategy, Scott Hebner: "I fully expect it to be adopted as quickly as the Web was... Maybe even quicker.:
Taking the stage during a panel on cloud computing, Hebner, along with IBM VP of software standards Angel Diaz, offered up theories on developments to come in the cloud computing space in the near future.
1. Distinction between "private" and "public" will go away within the year. Asked if "private cloud" and "public cloud" are two distinctly different types of approaches, Hebner offered that the distinction between the two won't matter for very long at all.
"I think as we march through time the distinction will go away and there will be 'cloud.' Just like the distinction between intranet and Internet... over time the distinction goes away," he said, adding that this will happen "in a year's time."
Diaz agreed, noting that he hopes within five years the phrase "cloud computing" will disappear altogether in favor of "computing."
Scott Hebner and Angel Diaz on a panel at IBM Impact 2012.
2. Cloud standards will accelerate adoption. While the Web was about standardizing the front-end, said Hebner, cloud computing is about standardizing the back-end. The importance of standards, he said, "cannot be overemphasized."
Indeed, according to Diaz, achieving standardization is key to accelerating adoption of cloud. IBM has been at work in the standards department, he noted, as one of the founding partners of the Cloud Standards Customer Council (CSCC), which now has more than 300 members.
"I've worked with a lot of our clients on cloud implementation and the question of interoperability and vendor lock-in comes up in the first 10 minutes or 20 minutes of that dialogue," said Diaz. "It's important for them to have freedom of choice."
3. Security will drive cloud adoption, not prevent it. While security still stands today as the primary reason enterprises are fearful of deploying a cloud, Hebner predicted that it will soon be one of the main drivers of adoption instead.
"As more things become electronic and IT-based, there are more opportunities for vulnerabilities to emerge and be exploited. Security is the No. 1 concern businesses have," he said.
"I'd argue the best way to secure your enterprise is a move to the cloud. The cloud will significantly lower your threat posture."
I believe all of the important variables today, however, will blend as we begin to focus on the larger capabilities that the cloud offers. The increased capacity the cloud provides in scaling and providing on-demand resources, will enable us to customize the use. The result will be we will use the cloud as a common resource in a wide variety of applications; just as we do the internet.
It's interesting to think about, DHagar, because these discussions are so prominent and key today. It's funny to imagine that they won't matter at all in a year to five years.
I fully agree with your blog, Nicole, that these distinctions and the nuances of our planned use and/or perception of where the value lies will diminish as the wider adoption takes place.
Cloud computing is a well balanced infrastructure that will contribute to the users in many ways; as you point out with the internet. I believe it will become ubiquitous and a fundamental tool for business and individuals to use to expand and enhance the use of technology. Andrew McAfee just commented on an interview with MIT that the idea of only using technology that we own and configure will become viewed as a "quaint" approach.
It's trendy now to go cloudy. Who knows what will be hot in a few years, let alone a decade from now? Where the providers put their bets is where the promotion will come from. Invest a few million in cloud stuff and you can bet that's what's going to be promoted.
If I were to guess, there's going to be some hot new tech in the future that will be so cheap that there will be no need for a cloud anymore, and all storage will shift to a personal gadget. What goes up must come down, all things change.
Interesting, Joe. I think Scott was referring mostly to the terminology, as he was saying that they're deciding which services they want in house and which services can come from public cloud, and they'll be integrated together as one cloud service. I suppose the terminology then would be "hybrid," which is already in use today. But I believe Scott meant in the future all clouds will be some combination of private/public, and therefore it'll just become "cloud."
You may be right, though, about the one year projection, Joe.
Re: "Asked if "private cloud" and "public cloud" are two distinctly different types of approaches, Hebner offered that the distinction between the two won't matter for very long at all."
How funny. At the Bio-IT World Conference a week ago, IBM representatives (and others) explicitly regaled me with very compelling arguments about the distinctions between the two, and why the private cloud is perhaps better suited for uber-big-data sectors like health and life sciences. Given these talks, I doubt the obstacles when it comes to the public cloud will be overcome inside of a single year.
(And, of course, there are the privacy and compliance concerns that private cloud solutions can better address than many public cloud solutions.)
I am curious to know what surprises people most about these predictions. I was pretty intrigued to hear that the distinction of private and public could go away. And I also wonder if thinking that security will drive cloud adoption is more wishful thinking than reality. Your thoughts, dear people?
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