As of next week, Larry Page will have been in the driver's seat as Google's CEO for a year. And as they almost say in the musical, Rent, "How do you measure a year in the life of a chief executive at Google?"
Some (like me) might say Page's year can be measured in unprofitable choices... and in decisions that leave us wondering what kind of company Google wants to be and what's still possible for this industry leader.
In revisiting the year gone by, I recalled a blog published a year ago on Internet Evolution, in which Ron Miller wrote that Page would be looking to focus on fewer projects, but that a return to the Google of yesterday was highly unlikely:
Page appears to want today's Google to be the company he handed over to Schmidt 10 years ago, and that's simply not possible. Since then, Google has grown fat and happy, not quite as quick on its feet as it was in its salad days, yet still moving along steadily and making oodles of money.
One year later, Google is, for now, still making "oodles of money" off of search and advertising. And, while it is spending billions of dollars on research and engineering projects (many of which appear to be going nowhere), Page has managed to focus the company on specific businesses, like search, advertising, Google+, and Android.
In that sense, he has achieved part of his goals. But where are these businesses going?
"Nowhere profitable" might be the guess of some (me again).
To start, there's Google+ which, regardless of what Robert Scoble would like to believe, is not catching on with the mainstream and -- for that reason -- will not attract precious advertising dollars away from Facebook.
Then there's Android, which is wildly popular but also a drain on resources. In fact, according to analysis by Charles Arthur of The Guardian, based on figures given by Google during the Oracle trial, Google has made a total of $550 million from Android since 2008.
It is, of course, no secret that Android isn't a money-maker for Google, but I question how many businesses Google can continue to run that only cost it money -- particularly in a time when its profitable mainstays, search and advertising, aren't innovating in new ways.
As Facebook continues to gain more and more data, many are speculating it is working on a search tool of its own that could pose a threat to Google. With Google scrambling to make search more "personalized," it's clear the company fears this reality, too.
Yesterday on IE Radio, tech journalist Dan Lyons offered his perception of Google's business problems:
I think Google is at risk of turning into Microsoft. They have a great core business. But search was a business built for the Web as it looked in 1996. In a world of apps and walled gardens (Facebook) Google's search business becomes less and less powerful. They're casting about for a new business but I don't think they've got it yet. I love my Android phone but Android is really just another way to protect search, to keep people using Google search when they move to mobile.
That sums up the situation quite well: As Google searches for new businesses, none of which is catching on, its core business is losing favor in the world of Facebook and mobile computing. With Google+ and Android very unlikely to become money-makers, and traditional search losing relevance by the day, the kind of Google Page is running in another year from now may indeed be a more focused one, but not one focused on many profitable ventures.
Maybe I am still out-of-touch with Google+, but whereas I can do different things with Twitter and LinkedIn, for different audiences, my Google+ account simply allows me to post for a small sub-segment of my Facebook audience (the few who are active on Google+). Duplicative, and not as effective.
I actually disagree that it's all about switching.. People use Twitter AND facebook AND linkedin all at the same time... Why not G+ too? When the Fox TV network launched, it was a horrible channel that basially had Married with Children and the Simpsons -- but now it's a mainstream network. MTV used to only show music videos... (now it doesn't at all)
If Google really has a committment to G+, then I think they just need to keep iterating until they find their audience. Facebook will eventually become one of many social networks, it's only a matter of time.
I think that's right. Google+ looks good, and has a bunch of interesting potentialities, but losing that initial impetus was a huge setback. Can it build incrementally? I think that's difficult: it needs critical mass to get people to switch from Facebook. And it is about switching - it's not about attracting new, as yet untouched markets to social.
@mhhfive: My feeling is that Google+ has already lost momentum that cannot be regained. I'm not saying Facebook will be on top forever, but I have little reason to expect G+ will emerge as an important competitor. I think, with Hangouts, G+ had a chance to appeal to brands, and then it did such an awful job of rolling out brand pages. I feel it has dropped the ball too many times here already. But I could be wrong!
Google+ isn't dead yet. If G+ can incorporate Youtube and Hangouts in a compelling way, then there's no question that G+ will eventually run side-by-side with Facebook. The way I see it, it's like the major TV networks -- there used to only be a few major TV networks, but there's plenty of room for more networks with niche audience appeal. G+ hasn't quite found its groove yet, but I think it might be more professional than FB (but less professional than Linkedin). G+ could become the "enterprise social network" if it sets up its privacy settings right and consultants start using it for project management.
That's true and the mature thing for Google to do is to really evaluate what it should and should not be doing with itself. It's an established brand for all intents and purposes now and it can use that to continue to mature.
Mashka, I think perhaps what Lyons was saying was that, like Microsoft, Google has a core business that remains strong -- but it's not succeeding in all other areas it enters. Rather, it's entering markets as a bully, or in an effort to beat out those who are already innovating there. As it's doing that, it's not focusing on strengthening its core. So, yes, people still use Google services and Microsoft services, and no neither of these companies are at risk of going away anytime soon. But they could be stronger and they could be doing more to position themselves as market leaders.
Pretty spot-on analysis. I am still not convinced that at this point Google could do social well, even with a "social expert." But if the company is going to continue the Google+ push, then it should bring someone in who knows what he/she is doing.
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The Memorial Day weekend begins with Geek Pride Day on Saturday. Kick off your holiday with nine news tidbits that are perfect for sharing at backyard BBQs and poolside get-togethers.
At the IBM Smarter Commerce Global Summit here in Nashville, I'm hearing many stories about how businesses have adapted their IT strategies in response to this rapidly changing, pressurized, data-driven commercial world.
Neal Stephenson is best known as the author of science fiction novels such as SnowCrash and Anathem. But he does other things as well. Among them: He's assembled a team of scientists and engineers to figure out how to build a 20-kilometer-tall tower to use as a platform for launching rockets into space.
While interstellar travel presents huge challenges, it's "almost inevitable," according to a speaker at the Starship Century symposium here in San Diego.
Based on reactions in Nicole's Newsfeed, everyone hates this version of Facebook. This should matter to Facebook now that there's a real competitor on the scene named Google+.
Google's replacement of CEO Schmidt by founder Page has a lot of Valley types agog with expectations of a renewed 'startup' mindset. But the Google of today can't be a startup, and it may well be that chasing the next Internet fad is the wrong approach for the company.
What can users today do to protect their online privacy? The simplest and most obvious option is to not use the Internet – at all. However, once all digital information is consolidated over the Internet, trying to protect digital identity by simply unplugging from the Internet becomes impossible – a fact that has manifest implications for civil liberties, Saunders says.
By 2011 the number of Internet-connected sensors will exceed 1 trillion, making your chances of doing anything or going anywhere unnoticed pretty much zero. Saunders talks about how the 'sensortization' of the Internet is eliminating the traditional divide between online and offline populations.
The 20th Century Internet was characterized by the ability to interact with other people and information on the Internet largely without anyone knowing who you were. The Internet of this century, conversely, will be defined by identity. Saunders explains how Internet users are unwittingly contributing to the demise of the anonymous Internet.
Steve Saunders talks about the risks inherent in uncontrolled, widespread profiling of Internet users, and how one day this practice could form the basis of a new industry, the Outernet, which in economic terms will have outgrown the commercial value of the Internet itself.
Search companies and social networks are collecting incredibly detailed information about their users, says Steve Saunders, who predicts that these 'profiles' could one day become commodities to be bought and sold by companies on 'profile markets' or 'identity exchanges’ – the digital DNA equivalents of the financial and commodities exchanges on which stocks, oil, and gold are traded.
One of the most important Internet issues of all time is being ignored by the media. In this three-part video series Steve Saunders explains how search companies are turning the tables on their users by creating user profiles for financial gain, and how soon this trend will explode into full scale profiling.
Facebook's Graph Search may face some profound challenges and risks, first, because Facebook users haven't been thinking of their posts as product reviews; and second, because Facebook will now have to contend with the social-network equivalent of SEO "gaming" of results.
New York's Metropolitan Transit Authority is conducting a pilot test of digital kiosks to guide subway users to where they want to go more efficiently and at lower cost.
The whole Amazon.reader debate is a double-stupid. It's stupid to think that there's any e-book buyer who doesn't know Amazon's URL, and it was stupider to let ICANN launch the whole free-form TLD initiative to start with.
While NFC's original goal was to enhance mobile commerce applications, it is finding its way into a number of other uses, which is creating both opportunity as well as challenges for IT departments.
Enterprises would like to move to cloud computing but are hesitant because they are concerned about providers’ ability to secure company data. Here are some tips that help to ensure that if breaches occur, the business is not left holding the bag.
Edmunds separates customers into segments based on the info it collects on its site and from partners, and uses that to push out custom content, said Brian Baron, director of business analytics for Edmunds.com, at Predictive Analytics Innovation Summit.
The automotive website uses propensity modeling to target ads and customer registration forms, said Brian Baron, director of business analytics for Edmunds.com, at Predictive Analytics Innovation Summit.
Expert Integrated Systems: Changing the Experience & Economics of IT In this e-book, we take an in-depth look at these expert integrated systems -- what they are, how they work, and how they have the potential to help CIOs achieve dramatic savings while restoring IT's role as business innovator. READ THIS eBOOK
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M2M: Rise of the Machines? Not Yet David Weldon In the 1970 science fiction thriller Colossus: The Forbin Project, two giant supercomputers from the United States and Soviet Union secretly join forces to take control of the collective nuclear might of the two countries. In the film, the two machines discover each other's existence, communicate back-and-forth, share their collective data, and cut their human creators out of the process. It is the ultimate example of machine-to-machine communications, or M2M. CLICK FOR MORE
M2M: Rise of the Machines? Not Yet David Weldon In the 1970 science fiction thriller Colossus: The Forbin Project, two giant supercomputers from the United States and Soviet Union secretly join forces to take control of the collective nuclear might of the two countries. In the film, the two machines discover each other's existence, communicate back-and-forth, share their collective data, and cut their human creators out of the process. It is the ultimate example of machine-to-machine communications, or M2M. CLICK FOR MORE
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