New data from Web analytics firm Compete shows that while U.S. Facebook traffic for May continued on a steady incline, growing 9 percent, Twitter traffic is beginning to flatline, providing more early evidence that the microblogging site may not sustain its own hype.
The data also shows that MySpace is nowhere near a miraculous comeback: While its month-over-month visits increased 2.4 percent (more than Twitter's), its year-over-year visits decreased nearly 6 percent.
Compared to its nemeses, Facebook is receiving 113 million unique monthly visitors from the U.S., while MySpace and Twitter are seeing 56.9 million and 19.7 million, respectively. The Compete data also shows that Facebook is seeing 65 million monthly uniques from people connecting via Facebook Connect.
We reported back in December that, despite its growth (Compete's data shows that Twitter has grown 1,043 percent in the U.S. year-over-year), Twitter trails Facebook in traffic and engagement. This was, and still is, unsurprising, as Twitter's functionality is limited in comparison to Facebook's. In fact, it's a little bit pointless to make these comparisons between sites, as they each set out to fulfill different purposes.
That said, however, the evidence is mounting that Twitter is headed for some trouble (twouble?). Last week we reported that 90 percent of Twitter users are inactive. Previously, a Nielsen study showed that 60 percent of Twitter users drop off after the first month.
All of this information is trickling in just as Twitter's founder, Biz Stone, is starting to speak publicly about the idea of charging for certain features, which assumes, of course, that what Twitter offers is worth paying for.
In a blog over the weekend, Stone wrote that Twitter will be "experimenting with a beta preview of what we're calling Verified Accounts this summer" -- a plan he'd shared with Internet Evolution after his site was lambasted by rapper Kanye West for its spam accounts. Due to limited resources, he says, verified accounts will at first only be made available to "public officials, public agencies, famous artists, athletes, and other well known individuals at risk of impersonation." In an earlier blog post, Stone had listed "account authentication" among a list of features the site may start to charge for.
But if unenthusiastic Twitter reports keep trickling in of the site's growing irrelevance, Stone may have a hard time pitching his product to people who hope to reach a large, engaged audience.
While, for some, Twitter's simplicity is what keeps bringing them back, a look at Facebook's numbers would suggest the opposite -- that a site needs more than one basic feature in order to sustain growth. Twitter's simplicity may be what attracts people in the first place, but keeping an audience may require more wiggle room than 140 characters.
This caught my attention a little late. Nevertheless ..
It would be a little misleading to compare Twitter with FaceBook. Its like comparing an SMS & a web portal. Both are social media, both are web 2.0 generation. But the time that they have been around, the purpose that they serve, modes of engagement, possibilities they offer & the likely audience they target are different.
Furthermore unlike Twitter, Facebook did not invent a new category. Orkut & a couple of others were already there. So FaceBook took a greater share from existing demand. Twitter being a novel concept will take some time to settle & will have its own share of on-lookers, testers & taste-and-leave users.
I'm confident in saying that MySpace has found a comfortable niche for itself as a haven for up and coming artists as well as established artists.
I look at it as the premier night life club for pure entertainment. As long as there is music and they have the meat and potatoes of Artists swarming their space, USERS WILL BE THERE.
We can now see the continental shift of GIANT social networks. Any other social network competitors are going to have to operate in its own niche from this point forward. The construct has been set and sealed.
"1 for professional (Linked in)"
In my opinion, linkedin has to hold fast to its britches in the short run. I can see a company like Zoominfo crowding their space.
Interesting data, and not surprising. As with many products, the first big hit "myspace" for example experiences the initial surge in popularity. In this case, that success spawns new-and-improved competition a la Facebook. Myspace has just not been able to keep up.
It is of no surprise that Twitter, which offers only a portion of what the other social networking sites have, will not have the same kind of success. Sites like Classmates that charge, will be sunk. People are very busy and bombarded with things to do online. It has become overwhelming for many, including myself, to be active on all sites.
For example, I choose 1 for social (FB) and 1 for professional (Linked in) and join others only so that I may view friends info. On my site on those "other" accounts, I post a "you can find me here" link pointing them to FB or Linked-in as appropriate.
In short, it is just not possible to keep up with all of the sites and those which do not offer one-stop-shopping are doomed to fall by the wayside or have limited users.
While there are oodles of Twitter apps out there - some quite innovative - I am seeing that they are suffering from the same issues as Twitter. Folks setup accounts, they login and they come back.....rarely or never.
I was doing some research on some applications that help share music over Twitter and the limited analytics available plus some eyeballing of member profiles seemed to show that they have the exact profile as Twitter. A few heavy users - a few new users and lots of users who are really not using it anymore.
If I was a developer I would be working on Facebook, or Firefox or iPhone add-ons, Twitter is a fun place but when Twitter is not making any money your chances of making money further downstream are even lower!
Yes, the business model question definitely remains. Growth in usage and user base will be more of a loss if Twitter doesn't get its business model down right. I hope it doesn't stay this way for long.
if some of twitter owners or Hollywood producers search the Internet Evolution and ask you who is this brilliant generator of ideas, I hope you will connect us:). I can't promise you the leading role in our movie but I think we can figure out something:)))))
I'm getting mighty frustrated at the lack of Props given that facebook deserves. You don't get to where they got by a fluke. And this isn't yesterday's AOL that we are talking about. Sorry to burst some folks bubbles, but umm, THIS GREAT THING IS JUST GETTING STARTED. Every on looker is sweating, yet fb seems to remain calm and well poised. Whether it's 200 or 300 million users, this is HUNDREDS of MILLION users we're talking about here. Lets factor in EVERY KNOWN AND UNKNOWN variable before we start talking about the next big thing. THE NEXT BIG THING IS FACEBOOK HELPING YOU GROCERY SHOP COLLABORATIVELY (tag items for your friends..oh the impact on retail sales alone that fb will have), DRINK YOUR COKE AND SMILE on the GO. RFID + Location Aware Services PAVE THE WAY.
Their framework..let's talk about their framework and THE MARKETPLACE that they are giving you PEAKS of.
You really meant beaten out by the next great thing, I think. Not long ago I listened to one of the developers of the Blue Ocean Stragety talk. (great great book by the way). Face book created their own blue ocean, of which key are brand and cost -- and first to market sometimes gets you there. But also, having a truly innovative (cant touch that) cool thing.
Brand keeps you at the top for at least a while as long as you continue to innovate. The challenge here is that most companies get too big for their britches and become the SLOW moving elephant or just think that they're the greatest and no one can touch them.
Before they know it, the next great thing will be cool. And FB will be, well...
Bottom line, continue to innovate beyond your competitors, and never disregard a good revenue stream to make the $$ to innovate better :)
It's misleading to judge Twitter's success on site traffic alone, since many users may sign up on the site but then access Twitter on a mobile phone app or via desktop app such as seesmic. Other 3rd party sites include Twitter feeds based off Twitter's API.
I'll admit that I'm not much of a tweeter but I do follow a bunch of people who always have something interesting to share. It's a great tool for research. Their planned changes to Twitter search, in my opinion, is a direct threat to live bookmarking sites.
JoeFoster, "in terms of six and a half billion people on this planet, with only one and a half billion held captive, with the exception of for those who can and do find their way through the Byzantine workings of China, is but a drop in the bucket"
You know with Globalization, pervasive Internet in "3rd World" markets becoming ubiquitous as 'EVERYWHERE', you have a great point! ESPECIALLY IF we make it past 12-21-2012 ;)
"People still use Twitter, but the user base has plateaued."
To the dismay of you and Nicole, I HIGHLY disagree..oh and Compete also, that twitter use has plateaued. It's a mere pause in my opinion. The social web is so young to date, yet so powerful, any forcast based on factual metrics minus the margin of error is all too arrogant and an oversight in my NOT SO HUMBLE OPINON :) Let's revisit in 15 months!
"that Facebook plateaus and is supplanted by something else and that something else will be supplanted."
Tis, that just may be in accordance with the Theory of Internet Evolution..however what may have even 'Sir' Darwin of our past and Ferraro of our future STUMPED is that facebook is matriculating into the depths of the xbox Live users and beyond..I don't see any other social network trampling everyone that you know and wanna know's where about's, happenings and what NOTS aggregated to view at your disposal when getting up at sunrise in the near future. and if so, Facebook will still be the VIP of them all. It is the "Black Sun" in Neal Stephenson's "Snow Crash".
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Earlier this week, the Los Angeles Times posted a story entitled "Blogger, beware: Postings can lead to lawsuits," discussing the growth of lawsuits in the era where everyone is a publisher. The article points to some recent cases where bloggers wrote some racy things -- like the blogger who said that three Chicago judges "deserve to be killed" -- and were taken to court.
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Marketers want to sell you stuff, and they need your help. It's crazy, it's crass, it's fun for the whole family! It's the art form of the new millenium!
We do love our social networking, but, according to computer scientist Jaron Lanier, we may be diminishing ourselves when we join the hive. “May be? Ha!” says Mr. Cramer.
As enterprises leap into the Web 2.0 world of blogging, commenting, and social networking, just 'being there' won't deliver ROI. You may want a 'Web Evangelist' to systematically harvest the feedback in order to polish your product or service.
More companies are trolling social networks to find and vet potential job candidates. Beware the pitfalls of blurring the line between personal and professional lives.
Tom’s research shows that IM, SMS, and social networking distract a third of knowledge workers but make the other two-thirds more productive! Which group are you in?
Nielsen’s recent numbers on the increasing use of texting bode well for enterprise networks. Shunning the phone in favor of text messaging could mean reducing bandwidth.
RIM is giving in to demands by India to snoop on encrypted BlackBerry data. It's time to develop cheap or free encryption software for BlackBerrys and other cellular phones.
Two studios have filed suit against an ad broker for placing ads to help monetize P2P sites suspected of copyright infringement. That's taking a dangerous step toward what might be a worthy goal.
By 2014, mobile devices will overtake laptops as the appliance of choice for consumers. But device makers still have some wishes to fulfill, including mobile app simplification and the ability to better perform word processing/spreadsheet functions.
Google's foray into pay-for-view movies may be an indicator that the days of free ad-sponsored content are numbered, or at least that ad sponsorship won't fund nearly enough content.
Online education, improving to better replicate the interactions that occur between teachers and students face-to-face, grew in double digits during the recession. Still, there’s more work to be done.
Google's decision to link VoIP calling of PSTN numbers with Gmail, and to let Google Voice "call" Gmail VoIP clients, will devalue the PSTN and force telcos to fund unprofitable services or create their own VoIP transitions.
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