Game piracy, the illegal copying and distribution of digital games, is an exceedingly hard-to-evaluate phenomenon across multiple channels. Its magnitude is difficult to estimate, not least because of the lack of clarity on what constitutes illegal copying and copyright infringement internationally. (Different countries, different rules.)
Despite the massive interest and controversy surrounding software piracy in general and game piracy in particular, there is only some information available on the subject across game titles. Furthermore, that information often comes from industry organizations or operators of peer-to-peer (P2P) networks, which are sometimes accused of bias, as Ben Goldacre of the Guardian noted in an article back in 2009. As far as he is concerned, “everything from this industry is false, until proven otherwise.”
In essence, the piracy debate has suffered from a lack of objective numbers obtained via openly transparent methodologies that can be verified by third parties.
Until now, that is. For months, a team of researchers from Copenhagen Business School, Aalborg University (with which I am affiliated), and the University of Waterloo have been tracking 100-plus games on BitTorrent, arguably the biggest P2P distribution channel for digital content on the Internet. We have provided some numbers that, for once, are not developed at the request of commercial interests. There is no incentive to deflate or inflate these numbers.
From roughly November 2010 to March 2011, 12.7 million unique peers (or users of the P2P network) accessed 127 pirated games on BitTorrent. That's about 100,000 per game, and we registered participants from over 100 countries/states.
This is a lot of unique peers, and the size of the study supersedes previous work (e.g., a report by the ESA from 2009). The numbers show that file sharing via BitTorrent is exceptionally well distributed geographically and across game genres, hardware platforms, and, notably, the ratings of the Entertainment Software Rating Board (ESRB), which provides recommended maturity levels for digital games.
Also, the notion that the pirated games are all hard-core “shooters” (which focus primarily on action and twitch skills) appears to be erroneous; 38 percent of the 127 games found on BitTorrent out of a sample of 173 had an ESRB rating of "E" or "E10+" (i.e., suitable for children and families).
There are a few interesting wrinkles. BitTorrent activity appears to correlate with review scores. Critically acclaimed games get accessed more frequently on BitTorrent than unpopular ones. The interest in digital games is also extremely skewed. Over 40 percent of the 12.7 million peers in the dataset downloaded the 10 most pirated games. Otherwise, peer interest on BitTorrent is fairly well distributed across genres, with puzzle games, role-playing games, and, less surprisingly, shooters being the most popular.
Perhaps the most important thing to come out of this research is that, for the first time (to our knowledge), we actually have objective numbers on BitTorrent activity for illegally copied games -- unless someone finds critical errors in our method, of course! This puts to rest the main question in the debate about the magnitude of BitTorrent game piracy, although it says nothing about piracy through other channels, notably physical copying, a problem of unknown size. Another apparently increasing source of pirated material is file-hosting services.
Additionally, we still do not know how piracy numbers translate into lost sales. It's definitely not on a 1:1 basis, as some industry voices claim. But there is likely some kind of effect, as indicated by the sales drop in the music industry since widespread online file sharing began.
Interestingly, the numbers show that investigations of file sharing via P2P networks should not be conducted as snapshots. The activity levels of different torrents (i.e., files being shared) vary a lot over time. So investigators should take the long view and follow specific files over their entire lifetimes, or at least the period of peak activity, which is usually the first few days of the file´s lifetime. That makes these kinds of investigations cumbersome, but the added precision is worth the effort.
— Anders Drachen is a veteran data scientist, games analyst, and game user research specialist from Game Analytics.
Wonderful. Good distribution is, indeed, the key in reducing piracy--we only need look at what the Apple App Store has done to mobile software (including games).
Hmmm... seems like we're defining a new retail industry for software. Retail is power.
Honestly, I think Steam is probably one of the best things to ever happen to PC/Desktop/Even Mac games. Steam is essentially an electronic distribution model for games -- you can buy all kinds of games online, pre-order them, and give them as gifts.
Steam is marketing. There are regular super-sales where various games are put on sale for a limited time (complete with count-down counter). These games might be older, or they could be brand new but don't have a big marketing team so the game needs some word of mouth from satisified players, but it's a great incentive to allow Steam to continue to show you the latest offerings.
Steam is also a social network, allowing friends, reviews, screenshots, and achievements to be shared through it.
Steam allows otherwise unknown independent developers to get known and deliver to the world, right alongside huge budget blockbuster games.
Good point, Scott. I still do think that the best way to go is to avoid selling games like Microsoft sells Windows. Alternative business models are already working better, both for the user and the game developer.
I don't know much about Steam (would be glad if you enlighten us on how it works) but I think micropayments can be really profitable if game mechanics are up to speed.
I'm not so sure the answer is universally "No" for games. Game pirating has been going on for a long time, long before bit torrents. Copy protection to combat piracy goes way back to the Commodore 64, where some of my games included punching in codes that were printed in black ink on dark paper -- readable enough to the naked eye but not scannable for the common tech available at the time.
And the copy protection would still get cracked.
Games are different media from other media however. A movie's experience doesn't change viewing to viewing. The music never suddenly sounds different. But games? Games DO offer difference experiences. A person playing the game can get better at it, and the experience changes as a result.
So it's not quite the 1:1 ratio for lost sales, but I'd wager it's considerably higher than music or movies.
To expand on piracy however -- what about factors like Steam, a system that not only provides an electronic storefront but a social element even to solo games?
What about Free to Play games? Many games use micropayments to turn a game from a single-sale into a long-standing money-maker, including multiplayer shooter "Team Fortress 2".
I'm sure such elements would have a significant impact on game piracy.
The question is: would the person downloading purchase the item if it hadn't been on file sharing networks? If he/she wouldn't have, then that should be one less from the count.
In my opinion, the answer for that question is " no". People wouldn't buy the movies, the music and the games.They download it only because they are free.
Yes, many think the old copyright rules are outdated, dbergman. Google "copyright reform" and you'll see what comes up.
Sadly, it will be many years, I think, before we see any dramatic revision. Until then, there may be tweaks to copyright laws here and there, and some release of material formerly held strictly.
An interesting article based on very interesting data. It is still incomplete, though, as their are other torrent sites and other methods by which people copy. But, it certainly gives us a good snapshot. I think perhaps the traditional ways of handling copyright is becoming outdated. With the ease of access on the Internet, it simply becomes something that is not even thought about. "Hey John, can I get a copy of Portal" is an easy thing to do betwen friends. At some point, we'll need to interview people who are willing to respond about their behavior. As mentioned in this article, there is not a one-to-one relationship. I might argue the percent is probably quite high for people who download on bit toerrent were probably never going to buy the game or song anyway...so in that respect there is no money lost-still illegal but not a loss of income. But, at least we got the conversation started and have some data on which to make some statements and plans steps forward.
"Additionally, we still do not know how piracy numbers translate into lost sales. It's definitely not on a 1:1 basis, as some industry voices claim. But there is likely some kind of effect, as indicated by the sales drop in the music industry since widespread online file sharing began."
Thanks for mentioning this point. I find it rather frustrating that the industry thinks that every pirate is stealing from its revenue, because it really doesn't follow. The question is: would the person downloading purchase the item if it hadn't been on file sharing networks? If he/she wouldn't have, then that should be one less from the count.
I think game creators could really learn much from Apple's app store. Price and distribution do matter a lot, but when they're both done to benefit the consumer and the creator, everyone wins.
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