Brands looking to measure public opinion by reading Twitter tea leaves should take heed of a Pew Research report, which finds that Twitter sentiment is often very different from public opinion as measured by surveys.
Pew compared the result of national polls to the tone of tweets in response to eight major news events, including the outcome of the Presidential election, the first Presidential debate, and major speeches by Barack Obama.
While Twitter tends to be more liberal than survey responses, sometimes it's more conservative, says Pew.
The researchers add: "Often it is the overall negativity that stands out."
Typical Twitter user (right).
Researchers surmise that the difference between Twitter and surveys might have to do with "the narrow sliver of the public represented on Twitter," and the portion of Twitter users participating in any given conversation. Just 13 percent of adults have ever used Twitter, and only 3 percent say they regularly or sometimes tweet or retweet news or news headlines, according to Pew. Twitter users are considerably younger than the general public, and more likely to be Democrats.
In some instances, the Twitter reaction was more pro-Democratic or liberal than the balance of public opinion. For instance, when a federal court ruled last February that a California law banning same-sex marriage was unconstitutional -- a case that is now coming before the Supreme Court -- the reaction on Twitter was quite positive. Twitter conversations about the ruling were much more positive than negative (46 percent versus 8 percent). But public opinion, as measured in a national poll, ran the other direction: Of those who had heard about the ruling, just 33 percent were very happy or pleased with it, while 44 percent were disappointed or angry.
Twitter skewed more pro-Obama during the election and its aftermath, when compared with the general population.
But: "For both candidates, negative comments exceeded positive comments by a wide margin throughout the fall campaign season." However, from September to November, Mitt Romney received more negative reactions than Obama.
Twitter doesn't always lean to the left. Twitter's reaction to Obama's second inaugural address and his 2012 State of the Union was less positive than public opinion.
The events being looked at by Pew were, of course, political rather than business-related. Still, any skew in Twitter sentiment has strong implications for brands looking to social media as a barometer of public opinion.
But it's unclear what those implications are. How does knowing that Twitter leans liberal help someone who's selling shampoo or factory equipment?
Pew's conclusion that people are more contentious on Twitter has a more clear-cut implication for brands. It means that if a bazillion people are complaining about your product on Twitter, it might not be such a big deal in the real world. Marketers need to think before they jump into a Twitter controversy and possibly make it worse, when the controversy itself might not be a big deal.
Another open question in the study: How does sentiment on Facebook and other social media compare with Twitter?
By the way, Internet Evolution is on Twitter. Follow us here: @NetEvolution. We're politically neutral, and not grouchy at all.
In most online modes of feedback - reviews, comments, feedback - the people who write tend to skew either to the very happy or the very cranky. The folks who are "generally pleased," whose expectations were "just met" - can't be bothered to take the time.
Take that general online trend and add onto the fact active Twitter users want responses or followers. You are most likely to get twitter responses if you rant or take an extreme view.
Another example that most online modes of feedback are not accurate random samples of the population.
I might think the "negative" twitter post might have alot to do with following the leader, or keeping in tune with the slurry of negative poliitical advertising during the period.
Although Twitter might tilt liberal, the onslaught of negative ads caught everyone's attention and even sub-conscioiuly those on twitter might just have been following the general tone in the media at the time.
As far as I can tell, researchers are still figuring out how to deal with the large numbers of people who don't have landline phones.
Agreed: Sentiment on Twitter and other social media can be an important signal of overall public opinion. But it's only one signal, and businesses need to keep that in mind.
This makes total sense to me. When cell phones started to dominate, researchers struggled with how to reach people. After all, these numbers are typically unlisted and unavailable so researchers no longer had access to vast reams of White Pages. That led to biased polls, as researchers could only survey people who had landlines and were shutting out many, often, younger people who shunned landlines. In the same way, it makes sense for brands (and politicians!) to avoid solely basing their decisions on Twitter, Facebook, or other social media medium that caters to a relatively select group of people. Their voice is important. It's loud. But it's not the only voice out there.
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